You Do Have Something in Place, Right?

Talking with friends who are here in Seattle on a short-term stay from Wisconsin, we were laughingly telling them about Mt. Rainier (it is a volcano) and our earthquakes (and the "fallout" from the Viaduct). It got me to thinking.

About Mt. Rainier:

Mt. Rainier is considered one of the most dangerous volcanoes in the world, and it is on the Decade Volcano list. The Decade Volcanoes refer to the 16 volcanoes identified by the International Association of Volcanology and Chemistry of the Earth's Interior (IAVCEI) as being worthy of particular study in light of their history of large, destructive eruptions and proximity to populated areas.

Although Mount Rainier is an active volcano, as of 2010 there was no evidence of an imminent eruption. However, an eruption could be devastating for all areas surrounding the volcano. If Mt. Rainier were to erupt as powerfully as Mount St. Helens did in its May 18, 1980 eruption, the effect would be cumulatively greater, because of the far more massive amounts of glacial ice locked on the volcano compared to Mount St. Helens and the vastly more heavily populated areas surrounding Rainier. According to Geoff Clayton, a geologist with a Washington State Geology firm, RH2 Engineering, a repeat of the Osceola mudflow would destroy Enumclaw, Orting, Kent, Auburn, Puyallup, Sumner and all of Renton.[24] Such a mudflow might also reach down the Duwamish estuary and destroy parts of downtown Seattle, and cause tsunamis in Puget Sound and Lake Washington.

About earthquakes in Seattle:

A study from 2008 indicates that as many as 1,000 buildings in Seattle could fall down in a strong earthquake.

In that study engineers looked at 575 buildings from the outside and further that estimated 850 to 1,000 old brick buildings that date back to the 1930s would be at risk if a 6.7-magnitude earthquake occurred on the Seattle fault, which runs through the center of Seattle and Bellevue.

The Seattle fault is widely considered the most dangerous quake threat to Seattle. Scientists have predicted that a significant earthquake on this fault could cause widespread devastation and at least 1,000 deaths in the city because of collapsed buildings, fires and other infrastructure failures.

Now is this going to happen? Mt. Rainier, probably not. Earthquakes, don't count it out.

My friends were surprised that I have a whole earthquake shed in my backyard. Why do I?

First, I lived in Northern California and felt plenty of shakes (although I missed the deadly one in 1989).
Second, (lucky me) I have now experienced earthquakes in 3 countries and experienced a NYC blackout. I get it - have a plan.
Third, after Katrina, I am convinced that no one in our government is coming for a couple of days if something massive happens. I'm just not going to count on it (I'll count on my neighbors, for sure).
Fourth, we are all computer and cell-phone dependent. Guess what will likely go bye-bye locally?

Here's some links (link 1) (link 2) (link 3) for info. Look, if all you do is this, that's something:
  • make sure you have shoes by everyone's bed at night,
  • a home evacuation plan (what spot does everyone meet at and forget the pets) AND
  • a plan of how to get in contact during the day (when everyone is likely scattered)
  • You have to have an out-of-state number that everyone can call into to check in. That way the out-of-town person can confirm who is where. An out-of-town call is more likely to work than local (but there's no guarantee).
  • Also, get that ICE number on your cell phone. ICE is In Case of Emergency and emergency personnel, if they find your phone, will call it.
  • Have a neighborhood list of who lives where and if there are small children/pets at home.
The schools have plans and kits although most don't have much to take them beyond a couple of hours. You might want to ask your principal what happens if the kids can't get picked up within 3 hours. Food? Toilets? What about kids caught outside without coats? (Eckstein had gotten a large storage container that we had all sorts of stuff in because it would be a huge number of kids to take care of, if and when an emergency occurred.)

Now's a good time to think about doing a few simple things.

Comments

Mona said…
Does anyone know how Salmon Bay School will hold up in an earthquake? Anywhere we can look that up? It's an ancient brick building and it does make me nervous. My kid attends the school.
seattle citizen said…
Here's an example of how bad the Seattle Fault is:

They didn't even know about this fault until about 15 years ago. Then they looked at geology in Seattle, Bainbridge, and across Lake Washington.

My parents live on the south end of Bainbridge Island, in a house on a sandstone shelf about ten feet above the water.

Turns out, we now know, that when the Seattle Fault went a mere 1500 years ago, a quarter mile of the south end of Bainbridge rose 20 feet. My parents house, it seems, is on "land" that until recently, geologically speaking, was underwater.

So the Seattle Fault (east-west, approx. under the stadiums) can have a slippage of twenty feet vertically (the south side raising, if trends continue)

Wsahington Middle School? Not an ideal location.

I believe schools should be better prepared to "house" students and staff for a couple of days, if need be. A big quake will destroy much of our infrastructure, necessitating people stay where they are for the short term.

Tents, food, water, generators....Perhaps the city could make this a priorty (ha! in THESE budget times?) and site emergency "camp" equipment at schools: Big fields, storage (maybe)...Good places for this.

It's not "if," it's when.
seattle citizen said…
Mona, see this report for structural assessment of the Monroe Building (Salmon Bay)

Word Verifier is going "tolowing." I hope it chose a nice outfit and has its dancing shoes!
Eric M said…
Having lived and taught through a major earthquake (I was living in Aptos, Ca, the epicenter of the so-called Loma Prieta quake, 1989), I'll say the level of preparation here is pretty woeful. And that was only a 7.1 Every school ought to have a weatherproof metal CWS container tucked into the least-used corner of the property, outdoors. Tarps, toilet paper, water, blankets, first aid.

Even if schools don't come down, they won't be safe until inspected. Houses in the neighborhoods will be off their foundations, and gas lines will be broken under the streets (you'll see natural gas coming up through sewer covers), so people from the neighborhoods will end up on school lots. They'll go there because people will seek open space, because they'll be in glassy-eyed shock. And aftershocks will continue for weeks. There will be powerlines down, and dozens of small fires as broken gas lines get sparked. Many streets will be impassable, power will be out, so no stores, no gas stations for days. I'm not making this up from some disaster movie - this is what happened.

On the lighter side- in 1989, the Rolling Stones were playing in California, and Mick Jagger flew in to Watsonville on a helicopter and delivered turkeys to the people who were still living in tents in the park a month later. Awesome.

And, on another funny note, we had an assistant principal many years ago who wasn't really good at anything, so they gave him disaster preparedness and a half hour at a faculty meeting. He assigned everyone on the faculty disaster jobs, with no attempt at prior skill assessment. I, along, with 2 other teachers, got handed a paper with a list of duties (no doubt straight off a website he luckily found), and 5 minutes to discuss it. We were the "Sanitation Squad", in charge of, among other things, building a sanitary latrine for 2000 people on an astroturf field with no shovels, poles, boards, tools, etc.

Then, at the very bottom of the paper, as we read on, we discovered that we 3 would also be in charge of "setting up and running a morgue".

At least we had 5 minutes to discuss it.
Eric B said…
So I read the Monroe report (well, the summary anyway), and one thing jumped out at me:

Structural drawings of the 1998 renovation are not available.

What BS is this? Can the District not maintain a drawing archive? Is the structural engineering firm no longer in business? Did nobody buy their plan archives? I can understand the 1929 drawings not being available--that kind of thing happens easily over 80 years. But we should still have drawings from 13 years ago.

Just for reference, I work for an engineering company. We're just turning 50 years old, and we have our drawing archive back to Job No. 1. Proper maintenance of drawings is just what you do if you want to have repeat business. It's a lot of paper to store, but it's absolutely necessary if you intend to do maintenance and repairs on any kind of cost-effective basis.

Yeek, organizing a latrine and morgue with nothing, huh? That's a heck of a job.

Word Verification is "session"
Mona said…
seattle citizen,

Thank you!

So I'm guessing the district did not take action on those recommendations? Because I've never observed any work done between 2009 and now.

So, yeah. Feeling a lot worse about sending her to school in that building. Sounds like the whole thing will collapse.
This comes back to the BEX and BTA money and how it is spent. It's why every dollar DOES count.

We have a high number of buildings that are 40,50,60 years old. Even as pretty well-built buildings, they have seismic issues. It's tough getting to every building to retrofit (and renovate or rebuild)and yet we live in an earthquake prone area.

The degree of safety for a building in an earthquake is something you can't necessarily know. That nothing happened previously may mean the buildings are better off than we think OR we just didn't have a big enough earthquake.

I personally believe that there has been a lot of over-building in BEX at the expense of taking care of ALL our buildings. But we wanted our high schools to be the jewels in the crown AND refused to alter building plans even as costs soared and problems arose.

Every student deserves a safe, secure building.
Bird said…
I remember touring Loyal Heights and they had a container full of emergency supplies outside on the school grounds.

I didn't notice this at other schools I visited.

Is this sort of prepartion left up to the individual schools? Does that mean Loyal Heights bought their own container and supplies?
Bird, I think each school has one supply kit per kid (probably some water, snack bar, etc.) and, of course, an emergency plan but that's it. Eckstein had its own emergency container outside because the PTA pay for it and got it into place. I assume it's still there.

My honest opinion? I think it could be pretty hit or miss what would or would not happen after a major emergency. Whatever the case, you should know what YOUR school will be doing.
lendlees said…
I know the Lowell PTA has a safety committee and funds the supplies. That being said, not sure how the building would fare if the big one ever hit.
seattle citizen said…
For anyone interested in their particular building, the information can be found here, at the 2009 Building Condition Report, located in the Facilities area of the SPS website.

The Seismic Report link is located near the bottom. There are other reports on other building condition factors.
Maureen said…
TOPS has a safety committee and fundraising money goes to refresh supplies about every two years. We also have some tents and other gear stored for school camping trips and middle schoolers are trained in setting them up. That might(literally) cover 5% of the kids.

District doesn't seem to supply much, in fact last year our admin asked for funding to pay for subs so the staff members of the safety committee could meet and go over plans and procedures. IIRC we didn't have enough extra to cover that, so they must be meeting on their own time or not at all.
Anonymous said…
Forget the pets?? :*(
Anonymous said…
http://web1.seattle.gov/DPD/permitstatus/Project.aspx?id=9802255

This is the link to Seattle DPD records for project 9802255 which is the seismic upgrade and elevator on the Salmon Bay (Monroe) building. You can check DPD microfilm archive for documents submitted for the scope of work for the project (see the DPD website on hours and contact information), or try the person listed as the project contact for this particular project.

Oompah
Anonymous said…
Anon., I'm pretty sure that was an error intended to be "don't forget the pets" under tasks the family needs to have assigned before an emergency.

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