At the meeting of the Demographic Task Force I got the enrollment projections - made in January and due to be revised in the coming weeks - for the 2011 enrollment at every school. I believe the data is in the Annual Enrollment Report.
It includes a couple of interesting bits.
Rainier Beach High School - incoming 9th grade.
2010 enrollment: 89; 2011 projection: 171
Here is an ambitious expectation that the incoming class will practically double (89+82). I asked about this projection and was told that it was primarily a consequence of constrained choice. Seats will not be available elsewhere, so students in that attendance area will be forced into Rainier Beach. Nice, huh? This reflects a continuation of the District's practice to push students into schools rather than try to pull students into schools.
Other high schools where they expect a big changes in the size of the incoming 9th grade class include:
Garfield, where the diversion of 50 APP students to Ingraham IB - HALF OF THE CLASS - and the smaller attendance area combine to reduce 9th grade enrollment by 128 from 499 to 371.
Hale, where the incoming 9th grade class is expected to shrink by 59 from 315 to 256 due to... a smaller cohort I guess.
West Seattle, where the incoming 9th grade class is expected to grow by 45 from 222 to 267 due to... a larger cohort I guess. There may also be more out-of-area students allowed in as well.
Ballard, where the incoming 9th grade class is expected to grow by 43 from 357 to 400 due to... a larger cohort I guess. There may also be more out-of-area students allowed in as well.
Despite the influx of 50 APP students in the freshman class, Ingraham is expected to have only 19 more freshmen than last year.
In the middle schools, we're seeing really strong enrollment growth at Mercer, Aki Kurose, Whitman and Eckstein. Eckstein has a projected enrollment of 1,275. Whitman, at 998, will be one bright idea away from 1,000. Enrollments are generally stable in most other schools. Let's face it. The District needs to re-open Wilson-Pacific as a middle school. Why delay announcing it? Wilson-Pacific, made the north-end APP site to relieve Hamilton of 200 students, could pull another 200 students from Whitman to relieve the overcrowding there and 300 students from Eckstein. That would give the new school a total enrollment of 700. The school can meet at Lincoln until the building is ready.
Although the number of students at Madrona is expected to drop by only a few, on a percentage basis the impact is stiff. The District thinks that the total enrollment of the Madrona 6-8 program next year will be 102 (27 in 6th, 31 in 7th, and 44 in 8th). It appears to be dwindling. A contributor to the drop has got to be the guaranteed access to Washington offered to every Madrona student. The district needs to seriously think about what they are going to do about Madrona.
The K-5 program at Madrona is also expected to shrink a bit as children drift away year over year. Total projected enrollment for the building 218 K-5 plus 102 6-8 = 320. This is a building as big as Seward, where TOPS has 500.
Elsewhere in K-5 enrollment, the District expects noticable growth at Arbor Heights, Roxhill, West Seattle Elementary, Hawthorne, Gatzert, Lowell, McGilvra (getting another kindergarten class), and, of course, at all of the new schools - McDonald, Queen Anne, Sand Point, Viewlands, and Rainier View.