Wednesday, November 09, 2011

Latest Election Numbers - No Real Movement

Checking the latest election numbers as of 4:21 p.m. today,  all the outcomes are still the same.  

There did not seem to be that many more votes counted today (I don't have the number from last night but I recall it as being under 25% and today it is at 27.96%).

All the changes in numbers are less than 1% in every race.

What is interesting is that this may be a real nail-biter as tomorrow will be the last day to receive any updates for several days. 

Friday is the Veterans Day holiday and so, of course, KC Elections will be closed.  As well, KC Elections won't be receiving any mail (or processing it) so they are likely to get a fairly large batch of ballots on Monday the 14th. 

51 comments:

Brian M. Rosenthal said...

They were at 24.03 percent yesterday. Biggest change today was, believe it or not, Marty McLaren almost doubling her lead over Steve Sundquist. Now up by almost 3,000 votes.

Full story about how McLaren pulled it off going up on www.seattletimes.com tonight.

-Brian M. Rosenthal
Education reporter
www.twitter.com/brianmrosenthal

Anonymous said...

It looks like they added 10k sea board votes. from ~ 70k to roughly 80k.


- Here is to hoping the procrastinators got it right.

data watcher said...

No huge changes, but Marty extended her lead, both on a % basis and by raw numbers.

Yesterday -> Today
Marty: 51.07% -> 51.45%
Steve: 48.43% -> 48.06%

She extended her lead by almost a 1/2 percent, and extended her lead from 1831 votes to 2740 votes. That's good news.

Sharon gained ground on a percent basis, but lost some ground on raw numbers. Still, it's moving in a positive direction, gaining about 0.2%. Not enough at this rate to overcome the differential, assuming about 120k total votes. But this is only one new data point, if the challenger votes accelerate, there's still hope.

Jan said...

I didn't think that the 27% was 27% counted of all who voted. I thought it was 27% of votes counted -- as measured against all all registered voters (not all who actually voted). Somewhere, I thought I read that they were anticipating only about 120,000 voters total, and today's votes total over 100,000 -- the number was 104516, from a total of 373,975 registered voters. If the 120K number I heard was correct -- we are more like 86% of the way through (which would also seem to make sense, given that most county mail only takes a day or two, so most ballots should be in now.

Anonymous -- where were you seeing 80K? Am I reading the King County site wrong?

Anonymous said...

Very little movement indeed, but not insignificant:

District 1 and 2 (Maier/Peaslee & Carr/Martin) have tightened ever so slightly, while the margins districts 3 and 4 (MM/Beutow & McLaren/Sundquist) are widening a bit. McLaren's lead has gone from 2.64% to 3.39%, or from 1831 votes to 2740 votes.

I think Marty's classroom experience gave her a bump over the other challengers, whether she wins out or not. WSDWG

Anonymous said...

Darn-it data watcher! You scooped me! WSDWG

Anonymous said...

And now I've made us look monotonous again! WSDWG

dan dempsey said...

The last time these four incumbents ran was in 2007 and about 120,000 votes were cast in each of the four races.

Currently about 80,000 votes have been counted in each race. So a close guess would be that around 2/3 of the votes have been tabulated.

Anonymous said...

80k is the aggregate of the votes cast.

I dropped off my ballot with 1 min to spare at muni building DT. They haven't added it as returned as of yet and we (spouse and I voted) correctly.


- Here is to hoping the procrastinators got it right.

Anonymous said...

It strikes me as a bit odd that the total number of votes (at this point) for the F&E Levy exceeds 100,000, while the total number of votes for school board candidates is in the low 80,000's. Close to 20,000 did not even vote for school board candidates? That's quite a few folks.

-MCB-

Anonymous said...

To be clear, I am not saying that anything nefarious went on with the counting. I am sure it is all quite proper. Just looking at the numbers and scratching my head.

-MCB-

Anonymous said...

Jan, I think you're right, but we have no idea what the total percentage of turnout will be. It may be 120k, or about 33%, but I'd guess it will be higher, because it usually is in the high 30's or low 40's in Seattle, even in an off year.

We won't know how many votes are cast until they're all counted (obviously), but I'm betting its well above 120k & closer to 40% turnout when all is said and done. We'll see, of course. WSDWG

ArchStanton said...

@MCB: Not very fishy. Lot's of people don't vote in races they don't care about or don't feel they know enough about to make an informed decision. I've been known to not vote an entire ballot. Unfortunately, it gives more weight to the rest, including those who vote for a familiar name, media endorsement, or by flipping a coin.

RosieReader said...

Anonymous @ 5:34 - my spouse and I voted correctly too. And I can pretty much guarantee that our ballots were different than yours. Heck, they were different from each other.

seattle citizen said...

I not only voted correctly, but I correctly voted! Ain't democracy grand?

seattle citizen said...

@Rosie - When my spouse and I cancel each other out it drives me nuts, but what are you gonna do? One of the delicate moments in a marriage: cancel your mate or vote the "wrong" way....ach.

seattle citizen said...

Three comments in a row, then I'll stop:
I have to say I've been impressed with the nuanced and respectful opinions I've heard about candidates on this blog as this election came to its conclusion. I believe there were a lot of various viewpoints offered and not a lot of slamming. Well played, SSS bloggers! And thanks for the forum, blog admins.

Melissa Westbrook said...

MCB, I noticed this years ago. People just don't vote when they really aren't sure. That's why every vote counts in SB elections.

Jack Whelan said...

My take is that both Sundquist and Maier were perceived as the most ostentatiously bad, the pinup boys of bad, and as such the ones who were them most vulnerable. I think a lot of people wanted two to go, but two to stay for stability's sake. Because Carr and Martin-Morris were no so proactively bad as Sundquist and Maier, they got the votes they didn't. Add to that In MM's case. that he is the only African American on the board, and it's not hard to understand why, despite Michelle's doing everything right, she was blown out. I can't say I expected that, but that's how it looked. The idiocy from the Stranger didn't help.

I'm still optimistic about Sharon's chances. She deserves a lot of credit for putting together a terrific campaign on the fly. And Kate. . . well, this is Seattle, and while I see Kate as one of the most sincere, committed, passionately nice people I know, her rep couldn't compete with the "Seattle niceness" factor that Carr had going for her. And go Marty.

dan dempsey said...

Link to Rosenthal's article on McLaren is HERE.

Anonymous said...

Jack at 11/9/11 10:13 PM

Oatmeal boiled in water, white bread, grape jelly made out of sugar and purple dye - that was the winner Tuesday night. Thousands of Seattle-ites voted to throw the bums out in City Council and School Board - and they appear to have also voted to not rock the boat too much -

they've bought oatmeal boiled in water, white bread, and grape jelly made out of sugar and purple dye, and

TheyDeserveIt

Anonymous said...

"I'm still optimistic about Sharon's chances."

Jack, I'm optimistic about the contribution that Sharon Peaslee can make to Seattle School District politics, but she always had an uphill fight to beat Peter Maier. If we assume that there are still about 40,000 votes out there to be counted, then Sharon Peaslee would have to win about 54.4% of them to make it close. It's possible. But for her to win would require that the late voters had turned overwhelmingly in her favor.

Insurgent campaigns are, to me, a lot fun. However, most of the time insurgent candidates lose. But occasionally an insurgent wins, and it's very sweet, indeed. If--if--Marty McLaren hangs on, that victory will, for me, outweigh any disappointment over the loss of the other candidates I supported.

I love it when a worthy underdog wins. But more importantly, we only needed one victory to break the hold that the four incumbents had on the Board agenda. It's significant if the Board President is unseated. The balance of power will shift on the Board. The changes may be subtle at first, but over the long run it will make a difference.

One second after the results are final I will congratulate the challengers on their worthy efforts, and then move on to the next campaign. If Michael DeBell doesn't run for a third term, I wonder who will step forward to run for the open seat?

DWE

Jack Whelan said...

DWE--

I know. But 54% isn't 60%. It ain't over til it's . . .etc.

Perhaps it was Maier's commercials gave him an edge with uninformed voters that Sundquist did not have. And Maier seemed to be the best connected of the four incumbents with political and business establishment types, and that seems to have compensated for all his negatives, which are legion.

BTW--another interesting election in the district's future is for union leadership. That's one that I'm going to pay attention to. Knapp and Addae are "ok", but I'd like to see some challengers emerge on that front.

Anonymous said...

I'll be watching the union leadership election too. I like Olga, but I don't think she, or many other left-leaning folks around here understand that, before you can affect meaningful change, you must first acquire the power to do so. Republicans understand this principle better than most D's, which explains how they manage to acquire, and stay in power, even when they frequently use it in such unpopular ways.

Believe me, groups like STAND, LEV and Strategies 360 understand this very well too. They get their power through messaging, media blitzes, and of course, always claiming it's all about the kids (like politicians kissing babies).

I'm not sure Olga & Co. often realize what they are up against and how and when to respond to it. They need a rapid response mechanism, besides our blogging, to stop destructive momentum in its tracks. I'd like to see union leadership that can do that. Maybe they can look to Ohio and Wisconsin for some direction.

Teachers reputations have sure taken a beating during their leadership tenure. WSDWG

Jack Whelan said...

Speaking of future elections: A perfect storm's a brewin' for Charter Schools--Gates, the WA PTA, and and McKenna all "angry birds" trying to crash the pig fortress protecting our unaccountable union controlled teachers. It's early, but he's ahead by six in the polls now. From Publicola:

"Just as he did in June, McKenna is advocating Democratic President Barack Obama-style education reform that touts charter schools as a magic bullet (which McKenna likened to “that boulder in [the video game] Angry Birds that’s tipping, tipping, and….needs a governor to sign and enact [education reform] legislation to push over.”)

The takeaway from the 30-minute speech is that McKenna believes government should run more like a business. He blamed the failings of Washington’s education and government system on the “government culture of seniority” instead of instilling a “culture of performance.”

source: http://publicola.com/2011/11/09/rob-mckenna-pushes-ed-funding-and-charter-schools/

Chris S. said...

To: Here is to hoping the procrastinators got it right.

On this blog you need to use the "/humor" or "/sarcasm" tags. Some people don't "get" either without some help.

Eric B said...

Any handicapping on who becomes Board President if Sundquist loses?

Anonymous said...

Way, way OT, but I couldn't resist:

Michelle Rhee, the Former Chancellor of D.C. Public Schools, will be honored in the Boston Speakers Series on November 9th as an “renowned expert authority” in education reform. The "public" WGBH radio station is funding this appearance, and Rhee is being paid $50,000 for one night.

Can anyone defend this money-grubbing Ed Reformer who heads up her own astro-turf org called "Students First?" Was it LEV or the Alliance who invited her to speak here in Seattle? I can't recall, but this is how it plays out folks.

Does anyone need to be reminded about the true intent behind Ed Reform is?

$$$$$$$ - WSDWG

Chris S. said...

My money is on Maier. He wanted the job last time but Sundquist got it. And if he's as "insufferable" as they say, his colleagues will be happy to let him have the hot seat.

Kathy said...

Does anyone know the process for a director to become Board President?

Kathy said...

Does anyone know the process for a director to become Board President?

Anonymous said...

Hey McKenna: See Ohio & Wisconsin. Your brand is in crisis. WSDWG

dan dempsey said...

WSDWG..

I'm not sure Olga & Co. often realize what they are up against and how and when to respond to it.

SEA gives away farm and then wants it back...

See Collective bargaining agreement and be sure to look at the "disruptive mess" created at High Needs schools by RIF process... to open up slots for ???? (likely TFA).

Note in the cycles of RIF disruption that at South Shore they were hiring a 4th grade teacher on August 18 .... and two of the applicants to be interviewed were no shows as they had taken jobs elsewhere....Then TFA corps member Maldonado was hired..... who as of Nov 1, 2011 did not have nor had the district requested a "Conditional Certificate" for him.

I'm not sure Olga & Co. often realize what they are up against and how and when to respond to it.

dan dempsey said...

Board members pick their President. Sundquist was VP under DeBell prior to his ascent to President.

ArchStanton said...

SEATTLE SCHOOL DISTRICT NO. 1

Ballots Cast/Registered Voters: * 128373/373975 34.33%

Director District No. 1
Peter Maier 51731 51.47%
Sharon Peaslee 48412 48.17%
Write-in 361 0.36%

Director District No. 2
Sherry Carr 53909 54.46%
Kate Martin 44653 45.11%
Write-in 429 0.43%

Director District No. 3
Harium Martin-Morris 60606 61.25%
Michelle Buetow 37874 38.28%
Write-in 461 0.47%

Director District No. 6
Steve Sundquist 47089 47.62%
Marty McLaren 51337 51.92%
Write-in 456 0.46%

Anonymous said...

The SEA - WEA 'leadership' take their cues from holders of the keys to the rubber chicken buffets with Patty Murray, Maria Cantwell, Dwight Pelz, Chris Gregroire ---

anyone notice how effective the Washington Democrats have been against the incessant lies of Tim Spoiled Frat Boy Eyman?

If you think being progressive means whining about how untruthi Tim Eyeman is, then you'll be a wonderful "leader" in Washington - oh yeah - and when you run for office, make sure you try to make yourself look 'centrist' by repeating Eyman-esque right win g lies as conventional wisdom.

When the WEA shrinks from 70,000 to 700, they might have an emergency meeting and elect someone who doesn't define politics as a bowl of mush sopped up with white bread and fake jelly.

What Me Worry?

Anonymous said...

The vote breakdown by legislative district is now available. There is a lot to ponder in the numbers.

* Sharon Peaslee lost by a wide margin in the 46th. Indeed, most of the vote gap is in the 46th, where the 46th District Democrats endorsed Peter Maier early and where Peter Maier doorbelled heavily.

* Kate Martin lost in every district, but she lost the most in, again, the 46th.

* Harium Martin-Morris won by wide margins in every district but the 34th.

* Marty McLaren did not win the 34th district. The theory that Sundquist lost because of widespread anger in West Seattle isn't supported by the evidence. Marty McLaren did best in the 37th and 43rd, and she only lost the 46th by about 300 votes.

DWE

Jack Whelan said...

Thanks, DWE, for the breakdown. That does leave a lot to ponder. I have to say I'm discouraged by the business as usual attitude my fellow 46thers seem to have.

As it turns out I just came from the special caucus at the 46th to nominate a replacement for Scott White in the state senate. It was pretty much a foregone conclusion that David Frockt would get it, but now there's going to be a real scramble for Frockt's vacated seat in the House.

I hope to find ways to make sure Frockt, Phyllis Kenny, and whoever takes Froct's seat don't drink the Obama/Duncan RttT Kool Aid. It's been my perception that a lot of these state reps don't really understand there's a problem with that because it's mainstream democratic doctrine now.

mirmac1 said...

Jack, the 34th Districts reps get it.

dan dempsey said...

Clueless needs a greater explanation.

Jack, the 34th Districts reps get it.

Who are the 34th District reps?

And what do they get?

mirmac1 said...

Jack says " It's been my perception that a lot of these state reps don't really understand there's a problem with that because it's mainstream democratic doctrine now."

The 34th District reps are:

Joe Fitzgibbon, Rep Pos 2
Eileen Cody, Rep Pos 1
Sharon Nelson, Senate

mirmac1 said...

BTW, did you see this bit of news?

http://today.seattletimes.com/2011/11/maria-goodloe-johnson-hired-to-help-failing-schools-in-michigan/

dan dempsey said...

The BIG MONEY is in Michigan ... and that is where MGJ will be... Check all this out:


Leader of new Michigan district receives lucrative contract
Aug 30, 2011 9:25 AM

From The Detroit Free Press: The first chancellor of the new statewide special district for Michigan's lowest-performing schools could receive more than $1.5 million in salary and bonuses over his four-year contract, if he meets all performance targets.

John Covington, the departing superintendent of the Kansas City (Mo.) School District, will be paid a $175,000 signing bonus and a $225,000 salary his first year as leader of the new Education Achievement Authority. His base salary grows to $325,000 in the second year. And if he meets yet-to-be-determined goals, he could make more than $425,000 in each of the last two years of the contract.

Earlier...
From The Detroit News: The new statewide Michigan school district designed to turn around failing schools has named the superintendent of Kansas City (Mo.) schools as its inaugural chancellor. The Education Achievement Authority executive committee voted unanimously to appoint John Covington to oversee the authority. Covington's four-year contract includes a $225,000 base salary and a $175,000 signing bonus. The EAA will take over the state's lowest performing schools and infuse them with greater attention and resources. Initially, 34 of the lowest-performing Detroit public schools will be in the new district in 2012-13.


From The Kansas City Star: The abrupt resignation of Kansas City (Mo.) school superintendent John Covington, as well as a school board member, has plunged the district into uncertainty. Missouri State Education Commissioner Chris Nicastro says Covington’s sudden resignation jeopardizes the district’s improvement plan with the state. The school district is provisionally accredited, but performance measures have put the district in danger of losing its accreditation. The state has withheld making a decision on accreditation while it works with the district on an improvement plan.

Earlier...
From The Kansas City Star: Kansas City (Mo.) School Superintendent John Covington, who has led the district since 2009, has abruptly submitted his resignation. No reason has been given for the action, but some speculate the resignation may be related to ongoing tension between Covington and board president Airick Leonard West. Under Covington’s leadership, the school district has closed more than 40 percent of its school buildings.

dan dempsey said...

Looks like MGJ will have great company in John Covington.... MGJ lasted longer in Seattle than Covington did in KC.... but then he ran away and she was tossed out.

Sahila said...

Covington is another Broadie Toadie...

Jan said...

Sahila -- I wouldn't have even needed to go to the Broad site to check on Covington. Everything about this has the stamp of Eli and Edyth Broad's money.

But -- it gets worse. I was curious as to how a "district" composed of only "failing" schools works -- well -- with Broad money! According to the Detroit Free Press:
"The new statewide school district for Michigan's worst K-12 schools is being funded by $2 million in private dollars pledged this year, making it the only district in the nation supported primarily by donations, experts said Tuesday.

Start-up money for the Education Achievement Authority (EAA) will be held by the new Michigan Education Excellence Foundation. It was incorporated in August, two days before former Kansas City, Mo., Superintendent John Covington was hired to be the EAA chancellor.

The California-based Broad Foundation donated $400,000 and expects to give $500,000 more before 2012. State and local officials declined to name other donors or give budget details, a lack of transparency some experts call problematic.

"Problematic!" Ha! There is gentle speech. (Worse, their "problem" is that the private money might dry up in the future." Mine is that it would appear to me that Broad and "unnamed donors" have basically "bought themselves" a clump of public schools to run, where they can earn HUGE amounts of money from taxpayers, and have virtually no oversight. (I would love to know what the performance criteria are in his contract. I am sure he has done the usual Broad job of tailoring it to school closings/reformations, test results, etc. -- stuff he thinks he can do, especially if no one is watching.

Worse yet -- I don't see at this point who can fire him or MGJ. If Broad owns the District -- they are home free.

Oh -- and while the "District will start with a few dozen "failing" schools in Detroit -- Covington is already on record as saying that he thinks it should be expanded and go statewide!

Jan said...

Oh -- and I hope whatever puppet "negotiated" Covington's contract with him did a better job than Seattle's school board did with Maria's! As I recall, she started with an incredibly high "base" salary -- and THEN got "bonuses" for each incentive benchmark that she hit (4, I think or 6, of 20) even if she missed MOST of them (which she did)!

dan dempsey said...

Jan about that checking ...

The chancellor of the district, John Covington, announced the hire at a news conference Thursday. He noted that “during her tenure in Seattle, student enrollment increased, test scores outpaced state averages and private foundation support for the district increased dramatically,” according to the report.

Guess he forgot to report to the media on State Auditor's Office findings, the progress of educationally disadvantaged students on OSPI tests at grade 3,4,5 math

The pass rate of low income students on High School End of Course algebra OSPI assessment.

The change in HSPE scores from spring 2010 to spring 2011 at MGJ's crown jewel Cleveland High School STEM.... lower in Reading, Science, Writing (those are the only three given in both 2010 and 2011 ... a disaster hat-trick)

Covington is the usual over-paid cherry-pickin' liar.

dan dempsey said...

Covington meant to say that MGJ is a Broad Academy toadie in search of a position and that he will give her well paid employment for that reason alone.

Anonymous said...

Maier-Peaslee race just got a little closer - he's just over 50% and she's a point under.

-crossing my fingers.

suep. said...

Yep. And this is a fantastic showing by Sharon Peaslee, especially considering that incumbent Maier had much more money than she did, and political connections. Plus, the failure of the Election Dept to update the Voter's Guide after August's primary meant that all of Sharon's impressive endorsements weren't even listed in the November Voter's Guide. (King County Democrats
Seattle Education Association (SEA)
11th, 34th, 36th, 37th, 43rd Legislative Districts, The Stranger, Metropolitan Democrats)

There's no honest way that the Times or LEV can spin these results as decisive support for Maier. Half the people who bothered to vote don't want him back.

The grassroots challenger may take this yet, and if she doesn't, it will have been damn close.

Meanwhile Marty McLaren has pulled beyond Sundquist's reach in D-6. If LEV's Korsmo and the Times keep trying to distort the results by attributing McLaren's win solely to teacher's union support, that just shows how out of touch they are with the parents, voters and on the ground reality of our school district.

As for Carr v. Martin, it was disappointing and revealing that Carr decided she needed to go negative to defeat Martin, both in the letter she sent out last month and her last hit-piece mailer a few days before the election. This showed a side of Carr some of us had not seen before. Not so "civil" after all. It was also telling in another way: It indicated that Carr felt she could not win by campaigning on her own record. Her last mailer barely mentioned her own accomplishments, but instead focused almost entirely on Martin.

http://your.kingcounty.gov/elections/elections/201111/respage36.aspx

General and Special Election
KING COUNTY 11/14/2011 4:10:22 PM
Unofficial Cumulative
11-08-2011
Page 36 of 69


SEATTLE SCHOOL DISTRICT NO. 1

Ballots Cast/Registered Voters: * 151601 / 373975 40.54%
Director District No. 1

Peter Maier 59633 50.66%

Sharon Peaslee 57686 49.00%


Write-in 403 0.34%
Director District No. 2

Sherry Carr 62119 53.60%

Kate Martin 53291 45.98%

Write-in 483 0.42%
Director District No. 3

Harium Martin-Morris 69704 60.19%

Michelle Buetow 45587 39.36%

Write-in 525 0.45%
Director District No. 6

Steve Sundquist 54111 46.74%

Marty McLaren 61129 52.81%


Write-in 521 0.45%