Wednesday, November 05, 2014

1351 - Follow the Bouncing Vote Counts

The Yes votes still trail as the gap goes from between .90% to .75%.  It's that close.

Snohomish county had been barely Yes and now is barely No.

Here's where we stand:

- there are just over 501K ballots left to count
- the three biggest counties have these number of ballots left: King, 130,742; Snohomish 99,000; Spokane 42,000
- Snohomish and Spokane have been extremely close in the votes with the No vote just edging Yes.  In King County, there has been a comfortable 53% lead.

So certainly, it is possible 1351 could pull it out.

But the trending, like in the charter school vote, is not going towards Yes so I suspect it may be just a very close No.

This is another WEA loss (despite those poll numbers just weeks ago).  I was asked about why I thought this measure is as close as it is with those poll numbers showing a comfortable lead.  I didn't see how the questions were phrased in the poll but I suspect that people "like" the idea of lower class sizes.  I think the drumbeat from legislators who HATED this idea because of the double whammy of McCleary and 1351 coming at them were loud in their denunciation of this measure.

I also think that the messaging about how it would work was not clear.  No, you couldn't get more classrooms to get more teachers into BUT you could hire nurses, counselors, IAs and librarians. They would provide the supports and create relationships that kids need.

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