Wednesday, October 12, 2016

Major Storm Coming

From the Weather Channel:

A series of Pacific storms, one fueled by a remnant of a typhoon, will hammer the Northwest into the weekend, with the potential for destructive winds, flooding rain, huge waves and coastal flooding in Washington, Oregon and far northern California.

 Here's a breakdown of what to expect and when to expect it:
  • Wednesday Night: A steady period of rain develops from west to east across Washington, central and western Oregon and northwest California.
  • Thursday-Friday: A stronger pulse of heavier rain and strong winds surges into Washington, Oregon and northern California Thursday, spreading at least some rain and high-mountain snow into Idaho, western Montana, Nevada and central California. Some very high-elevation snow is also possible from the Cascades (above pass level) into the northern Rockies. High winds are expected along the immediate coast of Washington and Oregon with some strong gusts also possible in the interior later Thursday. Friday should offer a bit of a break in the Northwest.
  • Saturday-Sunday: A powerful storm will track near or over parts of the Pacific Northwest Saturday, with effects lingering into Sunday. The strongest winds would occur immediately ahead of and behind the time the front sweeps through, particularly along the coast. Heavy rain, coastal flooding and at least some high-mountain snow are also expected, lingering into Sunday.
Of greatest concern is the threat for damaging winds with Saturday's storm, a remnant from Typhoon Songda, known to give rise to destructive Pacific Northwest windstorms in the past.

I remind readers that a man was killed last year during a windstorm when a tree fell on his car as he was driving.  

Be aware and be safe. 

3 comments:

Anonymous said...

The benchmark for storms like this is The Columbus Day Storm of 1962.

The Big Blow

Typhoon Freda's pounding was likely the biggest blow of the last 100 years in this area.

-- Dan Dempsey

Outsider said...

The 1962 storm had air pressure at the center as low as 958 mmHG, says Wikipedia. (Lower = stronger storm.) UW predicts the second storm upcoming will bottom at 954, but with the center about 200 miles offshore. According to the NWS:

WE STILL HAVE MUCH TO LEARN ABOUT THE SATURDAY STORM. WHAT WE KNOW IS THAT AN INCREDIBLY DEEP LOW PRESSURE CENTER... WITH ITS ORIGINS TRACED BACK TO TYPHOON SONGDA IN THE WESTERN PACIFIC... WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND PEAK IN STRENGTH ON SATURDAY.

WHAT REMAINS TO BE SEEN IS EXACTLY WHAT TRACK THE LOW CENTER WILL TAKE. THIS WILL MAKE A HUGE DIFFERENCE IN HOW BADLY THIS STORM IMPACTS WESTERN WASHINGTON. THERE IS A 1 IN 3 CHANCE OF THE LOW CENTER DIRECTLY CROSSING SOME PART OF WESTERN WASHINGTON. THIS WOULD BE A WORST CASE SCENARIO LEADING TO A HISTORICAL WINDSTORM FOR NEARLY ALL OF WESTERN WASHINGTON THAT WOULD BE LONG REMEMBERED.

THERE IS A 2 IN 3 CHANCE THAT THE LOW CENTER WILL PASS HUNDREDS OF MILES OFF THE COAST... MAKING LANDFALL OVER CENTRAL OR NORTHERN VANCOUVER ISLAND INSTEAD. THIS OUTCOME CONFINE THE MOST DAMAGING WINDS TO THE COAST AND TO THE NORTH INTERIOR (AREAS NORTH OF EVERETT)... BUT INLAND LOCATIONS SUCH AS THE PUGET SOUND REGION AND THE I-5 CORRIDOR OF SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON WOULD EXPERIENCE THE TYPE OF WINDSTORM THAT WOULD NORMALLY BE EXPECTED A FEW TIMES EACH STORM SEASON. POWER OUTAGES AND TREE DAMAGE OVER INLAND LOCATIONS WOULD BE LESS WIDESPREAD.

I predict multiple casualties regardless -- among TV weather-people who can't contain their excitement.

Outsider said...

Oh well, never mind that storm-of-the-century stuff. The UW forecast has mellowed a lot since yesterday. Now they have the storm bottoming at 974 mmHg (just slightly stronger than the Thursday storm) and landing around Kalaloch on a path northeast to Vancouver.