tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28765366.post5089218598611462487..comments2024-03-28T02:21:17.452-07:00Comments on Seattle Schools Community Forum: 2019-2020 High School Enrollment Issues, ContinuedMelissa Westbrookhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17179994245880629080noreply@blogger.comBlogger32125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28765366.post-64111590908585144672019-09-29T21:18:20.441-07:002019-09-29T21:18:20.441-07:00kellie - In my opinion, a huge part of the problem...kellie - In my opinion, a huge part of the problem overall (which is getting obscured by this year's wildly inaccurate predictions from the refusal to update projections), is that the predictions will ALWAYS be wrong. <br /><br />It isn't that impossible to get the overall picture pretty close, and the district does again and again. But to get those predictions accurate at the school level and then by class? It's just not going to happen. If we actually cared about equity and student experience vs just speaking the current right code words, we'd create a budget with some flexibility, not one that requires all classes be at basically max capacity. If we planned for classes at 1-2 kids below ratio, we could handle small blips better AND we'd have classes for all kids who show up. If we updated projections too, we would also be less likely to have as many no shows.<br /><br />NE ParentAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28765366.post-75908732327226774022019-09-28T13:58:36.901-07:002019-09-28T13:58:36.901-07:00@ Mel,
Yup, it's not one time. It's ever...@ Mel, <br /><br />Yup, it's not one time. It's every year. <br /><br />To be fair, it is a challenging analytics job. Trying to predict the grade by grade enrollment over more than 100 schools and multiple program is an impossible task. You will never get it right and you are not supposed to. <br /><br />But ... this year, they didn't even try. This new policy of zero changes between Feb and the start of school is just pandemonium inducing. It means that they were deliberately ignoring their very own data. <br /><br />It's one thing where there are surprise registrations in Septembers. It is quite another when you have had contrary enrollment information for more than six months. <br /><br />While Middle and High School were severely short-staffed, Elementary was all over the map with some very over and some very under projections. I have heard of a few schools that hired over the summer and are removing staff at elementary. That could easily have been managed by just updating the budget with current enrollment data. <br /><br />kelliehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01322661098626555834noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28765366.post-59280462851421387732019-09-27T14:57:01.441-07:002019-09-27T14:57:01.441-07:00They need to budget and schedule for 80% of contra...They need to budget and schedule for 80% of contract maximum, not 100%. Then reward everyone involved in hitting 80%, and punish people where things tick above 90%, and commit to no schedule changes, unless requested by a student, after school starts. Fund this by laying off central office staff and hiring more teachers instead.TechyMomhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04650916001250022778noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28765366.post-23970407886313153562019-09-27T12:54:48.530-07:002019-09-27T12:54:48.530-07:00And Kellie, going out even broader - this issue ke...And Kellie, going out even broader - this issue keeps happening over and over. If it were one time and they said, "We got it 98% correct", then maybe. <br /><br />But it's not just one time.Melissa Westbrookhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17179994245880629080noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28765366.post-38780711391170293522019-09-27T10:06:08.041-07:002019-09-27T10:06:08.041-07:00@ Mel,
It is not really what Bellevue does. Ther...@ Mel, <br /><br />It is not really what Bellevue does. There are hundreds of things that can be done to improve accuracy and most cost nothing. As you well know, it organizational silo problem.<br /><br />SPS behaves as if enrollment is something that happens to them. Every year, "we are shocked, so shocked to discover that enrollment is not what we projected."<br /><br />That statement all by itself is the problem. Projections are NOT supposed to be accurate. The art of projections is the art of getting it wrong. <br /><br />Back in the dark ages, my boss asked me to estimate the growth of the internet. I came up with a number was mathematically ludicrous. And yet, my projection was off by over 1000%. The point wasn't how accurate I was. The point was that you did a variance report where you measured what you "thought would happen" against "what actually happened". When we ran the variance, the conclusion was that the internet was growing faster than anyone could reasonably measure or predict. <br /><br />SPS simply has never engaged in this basic analytics 101 exercise. "Tell me where I'm wrong" is the bread and butter of a good analyst. If someone can point out what you got wrong, you can make it better. If nobody can find the error, you are just going to repeat it. <br /><br />I come from a business culture where someone telling you how you got it wrong, was mark of respect and a validation of your ability to get closer next time. But SPS shuts down those conversations with press releases and declarations of victory with their 98% accuracy and then hands out promotions and accolades for the work. <br /><br />How do you fix that???<br /><br /><br /><br />kelliehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01322661098626555834noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28765366.post-12829220974673086362019-09-27T09:19:23.737-07:002019-09-27T09:19:23.737-07:00Apparently, in Highline, there was some of this un...Apparently, in Highline, there was some of this underenrollment planning and it has backfired on them. So SPS is going to have some competition to find those teachers it now needs.<br /><br />Kellie, tell the Board what Bellevue does; it sounds good.<br /><br />Yes, that 3rd grade goal (which, if the Superintendent meets it, she gets a bonus) may be the reason for the uber-specific racial distinctions that one reader brought up. They want to find not every black male student but every American black male student.Melissa Westbrookhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17179994245880629080noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28765366.post-43409188337802021812019-09-27T09:03:15.222-07:002019-09-27T09:03:15.222-07:00@ Concerned Parent,
There is a decided lack of m...@ Concerned Parent, <br /><br />There is a decided lack of measureable goals, with one notable exception. There is a goal around 3rd grade reading that is measurable and for which resources are being allocated. <br /><br />If I had it all my way, there would be a goal around "accurate enrollment information." Bellevue has all families do an online confirmation that they will be returning next year. When families don't reply online, this is followed up by a phone call. <br /><br />As a result, schools have very high confidence in their staffing and are rarely surprised on the first day of school. But more importantly, this builds a culture where everyone values accurate enrollment information.kelliehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01322661098626555834noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28765366.post-15214930480085027332019-09-27T08:57:43.139-07:002019-09-27T08:57:43.139-07:00@ HP,
Unfortunately, that is not a direct compar...@ HP, <br /><br />Unfortunately, that is not a direct comparison. <br /><br />Hale is well known for packing advanced classes in order to provide more bandwidth elsewhere in the master schedule. That is planned and well known and the overall teacher:student ratio is still within the 1:150. <br /><br />The situation at Franklin (and multiple other schools) is caused by teachers having ratios between 1:175 and 1:200. <br /><br />In some cases this will be temporary as SPS attempts to hire over 30 additional high school teachers. In other cases, this could the situation for the rest of the year. There is very little transparency.kelliehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01322661098626555834noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28765366.post-76293741027276078382019-09-27T08:52:47.958-07:002019-09-27T08:52:47.958-07:00@ Wondering,
Where's the floor? That can al...@ Wondering, <br /><br />Where's the floor? That can also be found in the budget. In theory the floor is provided by the WSS (Weighted Staffing Standards). In the official budget, that is the floor. <br /><br />Until about 5 years ago, that floor truly was a floor. When "enrollment was less the projected" but still increasing, SPS violated that floor every year. For at least the last five years, during the October adjustment process, multiple schools were pushed below the floor, mostly by refusing to add staff that would have been required under the WSS. <br /><br />This is entirely within the pervue of the budget office, and has no board oversight. <br /><br />So where's the floor? It is wherever the budget office says it is.<br /><br />kelliehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01322661098626555834noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28765366.post-26030686307147826522019-09-27T08:46:24.960-07:002019-09-27T08:46:24.960-07:00@ wondering,
Here is the link to the adopted bud...@ wondering, <br /><br />Here is the link to the adopted budget. <br /><br />https://www.seattleschools.org/UserFiles/Servers/Server_543/File/District/Departments/Budget/2020%20Budget%20Development/adopted20.pdf<br /><br />it is often challenging to parse out which money goes where, because there are so many restriction on which dollars can be spent on what. <br /><br />That said, every district chooses how to prioritize spending and the priorities become very clear in the full budget. <br /><br />kelliehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01322661098626555834noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28765366.post-9816737921765440562019-09-26T15:33:14.493-07:002019-09-26T15:33:14.493-07:00Bandying about the term "equity" without...Bandying about the term "equity" without defining what it means, by what yardsticks you're measuring it and what "equitable" looks like at the finish line is meaningless.<br /><br />If SPS professes to be so concerned about equity, put the above cards on the table. Name it. Measure it/track progress toward it. Know what the finish line looks like/what you're driving toward. And be 100% transparent about it. Period.<br /><br />This enrollment mess sure smells inequitable. So, what gives?<br /><br />Concerned ParentAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28765366.post-30027124587088455662019-09-26T15:21:09.364-07:002019-09-26T15:21:09.364-07:00Franklin's numbers seem like a dream to me. W...Franklin's numbers seem like a dream to me. When my kid had Calculus at Hale, there were 45 kids in their class. They were all crammed into a portable. All the Calculus classes were packed.<br /><br />HPAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28765366.post-12881796938265014402019-09-26T14:48:37.703-07:002019-09-26T14:48:37.703-07:00@Wondering -Yes a "baseline of equity" f...@Wondering -Yes a "baseline of equity" for all public schools should clearly be outlined. <br /><br />Fed UpAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28765366.post-1083639156191820332019-09-26T11:12:06.562-07:002019-09-26T11:12:06.562-07:00Where is the floor? At what point does the distric...Where is the floor? At what point does the district say: we are going to shift funds from school X to school Y, but we won't let funding at any school go below Z? There are low income students at all schools, and all students, regardless of family income, need some basic level of services.<br /><br />wonderingAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28765366.post-5535876565975455222019-09-26T09:57:14.711-07:002019-09-26T09:57:14.711-07:00On the Yoo-Hoo thread, "Franklin update"...On the Yoo-Hoo thread, "Franklin update" said <br /><br /><i>Franklin teachers were calling attention to class sizes:<br /><br />Pre Calc: 36 students<br />Algebra 2: 35 students<br />US History: 36 students<br />World History: 35 students </i><br /><br />I think this is critical information as Franklin is a Tier 2 school and is not supposed to have anything close to those ratios. <br /><br />Last year during the "levy cliff budget crisis," Staff divided all schools in to 4 Equity Tiers. The stated intent was that Tier 1 and 2 (Rainier Beach, Franklin, etc) schools would be held harmless and Tier 3 and 4 schools would take drastic cuts. (Roosevelt, Ballard, etc) <br /><br />I think most reasonable people can agree that is the appropriate plan, in an uncertain budget. While nobody likes drastic cuts, it is self-evident that a Tier 4 school can bounce back from cuts must more swiftly than a Tier 1 school. <br /><br />So this means that all last Spring the narrative was that Ballard and Roosevelt should prepare for drastic cuts, in order to protect Tier 1 and Tier 2 schools. Roosevelt and Ballard did take those hits. Teachers were RIFed for no reason and enrollment was precisely as predicted during the boundary conversations. <br /><br />But downtown FAILED to provide the protection that was promised. Teachers were also RIFed at Rainer Beach and Franklin, based on a narrative that enrollment was dropping. This was done despite the fact that downtown had information to the contrary. They had enrollment receipts that showed growth in SE Seattle.<br /><br />This issue was serious enough that Directors Mack and Pinkham refused to vote for the full budget. That's unheard of. But yet even that action did not cause any changes to staffing. <br /><br />This is an equity issue. If the budget doesn't even try to protect Tier 1 and Tier 2 schools, how can we trust downtown to do anything they say. <br /><br />As far as I can tell, this real issue is being swiftly swept under the run. Juneau should have publicly apologized to school communities and made a public statement about doing better. But instead she praised the 98% accuracy. <br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br />kelliehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01322661098626555834noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28765366.post-84045274609142832442019-09-26T09:18:29.619-07:002019-09-26T09:18:29.619-07:00"Most surrounding districts use their levy mo..."Most surrounding districts use their levy money to backfill high school because that is the right thing to do, but not SPS. SPS passes along this underfunding."<br /><br />So how *is* SPS spending the levy money, compared with other districts? <br /><br />wonderingAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28765366.post-74120802447651388052019-09-26T08:56:36.586-07:002019-09-26T08:56:36.586-07:00There are drastic differences in the way that The ...There are drastic differences in the way that The State of Washington funds middle school and high school. <br /><br />All of K-8 Education is funded on a homeroom basis. The State of Washington will use the October 1st headcount to determine the number of students and then will provide teachers based on a grade level ratio. The ratio varies by grade level and FRL status but the net effect is that there is very good funding for middle school and most importantly all students are funded. There are small adjustments for partial homeschooling but by and large, every student enrolled on Oct 1st is fully funded for the year. <br /><br />This is critical because you hire teachers for the full school year. So while enrollment may vary up or down after Oct 1st, you have a nice tidy fixed budget for middle school. <br /><br />High School is radically different. Funding is doled out in .17 increments. In other words, students are only funded for the classes they are assigned. If a student has a hole in their schedule, .17 vanishes. Thats why there are so many TA slots on the high school schedules. <br /><br />In a utterly tone-deaf move to "prevent the drop out rate," high school is funded by attendance and not the October 1 headcount. The net effect of this policy is the approximately 5% of high school students enrolled on October 1st, receive ZERO DOLLARS. <br /><br />Yes, you read that correctly. The "logic" is that since those students won't be there by the end of the year, you shouldn't bother to hire enough adults to actually provide instruction. <br /><br />So the net effect of this double whammy is that the high school master schedule is both complex and systemically underfunded. Most surrounding districts use their levy money to backfill high school because that is the right thing to do, but not SPS. SPS<br />passes along this underfunding. <br /><br />I am constantly amazed with how much our high schools actually accomplish with so little support from both the State and downtown. <br /><br /><br /><br /><br />kelliehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01322661098626555834noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28765366.post-62738410873391000072019-09-26T08:38:59.741-07:002019-09-26T08:38:59.741-07:00On the Yoo-Hoo thread, Moving-on commented. “The m...On the Yoo-Hoo thread, Moving-on commented. “The master schedule “ is a huge revelation. Obviously middle schools don’t have master schedules, do they?<br /><br />While clearly intended as a snarky comment, this is a common misconception, and is very likely at the heart of the reason why high school funding is always a mess. The middle school master schedule and high school master schedule are dramatically different, because of differences in funding and required variation in course offerings. <br /><br />I'll start with the easy part. The Middle School master schedule is vastly more efficient than the high school master schedule due to the number of classes that need to be delivered. This matters because the less efficient the schedule, the more money you need to backfill the schedule. <br /><br />During middle school, student schedules have a lot of shared requirements. Over three years, there are 18 credits/slots on the schedule. 12 of those slots are pre-determined for all students. The day is based on LA, SS, Math, Science and then two electives. While there may be some variation in the electives and the levels of courses, the experience is very structured and very fixed. <br /><br />High school is a 24 credit experience. Only a handful of those slots are pre-determined as graduation credits. Every student has the right and opportunity to design their very own pathway. By high school students arrive both many years ahead and behind. The variation is extraordinary and the complexity is orders of magnitude different from middle school. <br /><br />But yet, SPS attempts to fund high school is a very similar manner as middle school and this just doesn't really work without either mitigation dollars or very efficient cohorts. <br />kelliehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01322661098626555834noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28765366.post-35345670348345740932019-09-26T08:36:47.426-07:002019-09-26T08:36:47.426-07:00This comment has been removed by the author.kelliehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01322661098626555834noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28765366.post-51223412050948149772019-09-25T10:25:59.714-07:002019-09-25T10:25:59.714-07:00I can't attend the Work Session today, unfortu...I can't attend the Work Session today, unfortunately. I implore those who will be attending and testifying to *please, raise this issue*. How can SPS expect parents to believe that it is capable of using MTSS to equitably meet the needs of all students when it can't even manage basic budgeting and staffing? A slide deck full of buzzwords is meaningless.<br /><br />What's going on with staffing at RBHS, GHS, IHS, and other high schools is a disgrace, but it's the new norm. And as always, schools with more resources, and parents with more resources, will fill the void for their own students. (It's not hard to find and pay for world language tutoring, etc., if you have the money.) Students and parents who don't have access to the resources will lose out. But hey, at least we have a strategic plan with the words "students of color farthest from educational justice" in it at least 25 times. <br /><br />This likely outcome has been blindingly obvious *for years*. The Board and SPS leadership are failing students on so many levels with this approach.<br /><br />RuthieAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28765366.post-10957265114034353002019-09-25T09:11:18.811-07:002019-09-25T09:11:18.811-07:00Many of the other high schools received many more ...Many of the other high schools received many more staff cuts and were budgeted for more than 100 less students. Garfield for example was under-budgeted for 350 I believe and 10 teachers cut greatly impacting that school. Rainier Beach was allocated back their two teachers, but they (& all other schools) should not have cut in the first place! Being conservative with projections should mean NOT cutting staff in case you are wrong. I also assume some schools will not gain back all the staff they lost. We cannot ignore the effect this has on all kids but especially FRL students at those schools as well. <br /><br />GHSAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28765366.post-75532874228949217882019-09-25T07:49:41.593-07:002019-09-25T07:49:41.593-07:00So here is the much longer lasting damage to Raini...So here is the much longer lasting damage to Rainier Beach. <br /><br />High School is the Master Schedule and the Master Schedule is set in the Spring. A high school can only deliver classes that are on the schedule and the schedule is set by the budget. <br /><br />Rainier Beach's schedule was set to 685 students. Now you can overload teachers past the 150 mark and stretch that a bit. But you just can't give 6 full classes to 806 students. <br /><br />That means many students just have holes in their schedules or a lot of TA slots. <br /><br />So what can a student do? Those with another choice, leave. Some students who were planning to attend Rainier Beach, but don't have the classes they need, leave for charter schools, Running Start or other districts. <br /><br />The failure to appropriately staff a high school can easily cause the predicted enrollment drop. This then justifies the projection and the chaos is swept under the rug.<br /><br />Rainier Beach has worked hard to grow their enrollment and their community. They have done this despite the bean counters short staffing the school, year after year. <br /><br />This is not a WSS problem. This is not a fundraising problem. This is a management problem. <br /><br />Using the equity lens, Rainier Beach is the only Tier 1 high school. As such, Rainier Beach is supposed to be protected in the budget. Manipulating the enrollment projections as work around to that protection is beyond inappropriate. <br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br />kelliehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01322661098626555834noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28765366.post-17828113277389343652019-09-25T07:18:58.393-07:002019-09-25T07:18:58.393-07:00I am really grateful that Liz Brazile is drawing a...I am really grateful that Liz Brazile is drawing attention to the problems at Rainer Beach. <br /><br />While all high schools were needlessly harmed in this process, some schools are able to bounce back faster than others. Liz's article clearly captures that dynamic. <br /><br />Eric's article captures all the nuances of the problem, most likely because Eric has served on multiple SPS Task Forces related to capacity, enrollment and budget and has followed this topic for more than a decade. Liz's article captures the situation with fresh eyes but misses many of the more complex and more troubling and longer lasting problems from failing to center the budget on students, particularly Title 1 students. <br /><br />Rainier Beach's 2018 enrollment was 740. Rainier's Beach's enrollment has been growing every year. Despite that Rainier Beach was budgeted for 685 for the 2019 school year. The projected 55 student drop necessitated removing two teacher from the budget. <br /><br />The first day count was 806. That number is completely in line with the steady year over year growth that Beach has been experiencing and would require adding two teachers. That makes a total gap of 121 students. <br /><br />RIF'ing a teacher at Rainier Beach was myopic at best. IMHO, it was just cruel. <br /><br />"Community based funding" can't help enrollment and budget swings of this size. What can help is the district guaranteeing that the current year's staff at Title 1 schools is continued into the next year. Title 1 schools need some semblance of staffing stability. That should be the budget priority. <br /><br /><br /><br />kelliehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01322661098626555834noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28765366.post-51956163122973135852019-09-25T06:52:05.785-07:002019-09-25T06:52:05.785-07:00Mr. Moriarty makes a great point. While I am the p...Mr. Moriarty makes a great point. While I am the primary person posting on this blog about this budget fiasco, I am certainly not alone in my understanding that this budget was deeply disconnected from the reality on the ground at our schools.<br /><br />The Board pushed back very hard at the work session on the enrollment numbers. Directors Mack and Pinkham refused to approve the budget because of these enrollment concerns.<br /><br />SEA and PASS were well aware of the problem. <br /><br />Dozen of capacity-hardened parents contacted the district. By this point, many parents have been fighting capacity related battles since their high school students, started Kindergarten. <br /><br />The bottom line here is that downtown developed a plan to create "hiring and staffing stability." That plan was based on creating a building budget in February and then guaranteeing that budget with ZERO CHANGES. Their entire plan to create stability was by promising no changes, so that principals could hire with confidence. <br /><br />Seattle is a rapidly changing and swiftly growing city. It is simply not possible to accurately staff over 100 buildings, 8 months before the start of school. <br /><br />For just high school, there were 300 new registrations for high school after open enrollment and before the start of school. That is 10 teachers worth of students, added over the summer. Budget flexibility is a requirement. <br /><br /><br /><br /><br />kelliehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01322661098626555834noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28765366.post-77150958250176021152019-09-25T06:34:19.391-07:002019-09-25T06:34:19.391-07:00Eric Blumhagen's essay is very well written an...Eric Blumhagen's essay is very well written and gets directly to the point. <i>This situation was entirely preventable. </i><br /><br />Eric's conclusion is also equally clear and illustrates the interconnections of budget, enrollment and capacity. <i>The change we need to make is straightforward. We need to prioritize teachers and students in the budget process.</i><br /><br />The phrase "it goes without saying" was practically invented for this situation. It should go without saying that prioritizing teachers and students in the budget is the core work of a school district. However, that simply is not the case with SPS. <br /><br />I attended the 5/8/19 Board Work Session, and staff make their priorities quite clear during that meeting. It was stated that there was "not enough money to take the risk of over-staffing schools". They repeatedly mentioned that once teachers are in place, they are nearly impossible to remove, because of board and public pressure. <br /><br />Because over-staffing a school building by even one teacher was so fiscally irresponsible, staff was very clear in their assertion that they only fiscally responsible option was truly to RIF teachers in June and then re-hire in October, if necessary. <br /><br />That is a plan created by bean counters, not educators. So the "solution" to the problem of "over-staffing" is to create chaos for the start of school process. If staff wanted to prioritize teachers and students, there is a very simple solution. <br /><br />Every year, we have millions of dollars in underspend for budgeted teaching positions. This is because some positions go unfilled and because new inexperienced teachers are less expensive than the budgeted amount. These dollars that were already budgeted for teachers could easily be converted into a staffing stabilization fund.<br /><br />kelliehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01322661098626555834noreply@blogger.com