tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28765366.post597061818033844195..comments2024-03-27T20:01:11.889-07:00Comments on Seattle Schools Community Forum: Questionable StatisticsMelissa Westbrookhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17179994245880629080noreply@blogger.comBlogger30125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28765366.post-12736518179048867022010-09-12T16:34:38.025-07:002010-09-12T16:34:38.025-07:00Just want to clarify an error I made. I got the 17...Just want to clarify an error I made. I got the 17% statistic from a presentation that Sharon Rodgers and Heidi Bennett made in favor of the levy. While I took decent notes and have marked WHO said WHAT for most of it, I do not have marked which presenter mentioned the 17% figure. I really thought it was Sharon, but have to apologize, because she says it was Heidi. <br /><br />I do like Sharon and think she does a lot for schools and kids. I don't think she's correct that we should support this particular levy, but when she agreed to be President of SchoolsFirst, I doubt she had any idea she'd be in the position of supporting such a controversial levy.Dorothy Nevillehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17108759281089768738noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28765366.post-72062077162017045082010-09-12T13:47:20.044-07:002010-09-12T13:47:20.044-07:00No problem, Another Mom, the rest of the data is a...No problem, Another Mom, the rest of the data is all from later years, so easy to miss that one. <br /><br />Puzzling, isn't it, that college-ready graduation rates should decline so dramatically. Must be part of their Strategic Plan: Excellence for All.Dorothy Nevillehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17108759281089768738noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28765366.post-41676588742364491072010-09-12T13:26:13.933-07:002010-09-12T13:26:13.933-07:00"...the college rates are based on 2005 gradu..."...the college rates are based on 2005 graduating class."<br /><br />Doh! I missed it right in front of my nose -probably not enough coffee this morning. Thank you for the correction. However, how does the district explain the precipitous rate of decline in the number of college ready grads?another momhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12303476240929715442noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28765366.post-61280709867331331732010-09-12T11:54:32.852-07:002010-09-12T11:54:32.852-07:00" The information in the Times School Guide i..." The information in the Times School Guide is more current,"<br /><br />Not really. The <a href="http://community.seattletimes.nwsource.com/schoolguide/profile.php?results=false&building_id=2306&search=school_name&school_name=garfield" rel="nofollow">Times guide</a> says that the college rates are based on 2005 graduating class.Dorothy Nevillehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17108759281089768738noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28765366.post-45949682763351981672010-09-12T11:06:41.747-07:002010-09-12T11:06:41.747-07:00@ Dorothy
On the Alliance4Ed website is a documen...@ Dorothy<br /><br />On the Alliance4Ed website is a document titled "Promises to Keep." It references that 17% figure with a footnote that states the number is based on 2006-07 data. The information in the Times School Guide is more current, however, no way did the number of college ready jump from 17% to 47.7% in one or two years. The Alliance simply lifted the District's number out of the Excellence for All progress report or whatever it is called. How on earth did the district come up with that 17% thatis now being trumpeted as gospel?another momhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12303476240929715442noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28765366.post-30551742547703613862010-09-11T16:52:23.174-07:002010-09-11T16:52:23.174-07:00Thanks, AnotherMom! I knew it had to be wrong. I d...Thanks, AnotherMom! I knew it had to be wrong. I didn't think of looking at the Times Summary, just trying to sort through the school websites. <br /><br />I will point that out to Sharon.Dorothy Nevillehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17108759281089768738noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28765366.post-83828031754578589452010-09-11T16:38:45.829-07:002010-09-11T16:38:45.829-07:00@Dorothy
That 17% is questionable if not an outri...@Dorothy<br /><br />That 17% is questionable if not an outright lie. The Seattle Times School Guide lists the percentages of graduates bound for four year colleges. All SPS high schools are profiled except Cleveland which does not have the data available. At the time the stx were gathered, Rainier Beach had 13% going on to four yr colleges. All others were 25% and higher -much higher in most cases. I just looked and you can as well. http://community.seattletimes.nwsource.com/schoolguide/ <br /><br />My apologies for being unable to provide a real link -too old and curmudgeonly to learn.another momhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12303476240929715442noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28765366.post-10166569864590633912010-09-10T22:21:33.814-07:002010-09-10T22:21:33.814-07:00I am still having trouble with the 17% of graduate...I am still having trouble with the 17% of graduates ready for four year college. <br /><br />This <a href="http://www.therooseveltnews.org/wp-includes/images/2009/Senior%20destinations%202009.pdf" rel="nofollow">chart</a> has 284 class of '09 RHS grads and their plans. <br />22 - work, military, travel, undecided<br />37 community college<br />and <br />225 going to four year colleges. This is self reported, so I do not know how many graduates. I am fairly certain it us under 400. So let's say 400, that shows that more than 50% are clearly ready for 4 year college.<br /><br />Everything I hear from Ballard and Hale and Ingraham and Garfield also suggests at least 30% of their graduates go to 4 year college? A quick check of their websites and I wasn't able to pull up any data. But if your kid goes there, perhaps you know how to navigate their site better. <br /><br />Center and Nova are small, but I believe many are college bound. More than 15%? Franklin, Cleveland, RBHS, Sealth and West Seattle?Dorothy Nevillehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17108759281089768738noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28765366.post-24071186126432545162010-09-10T15:20:31.920-07:002010-09-10T15:20:31.920-07:00I don't understand why they're throwing in...I don't understand why they're throwing in an honors-level GPA* on top of the course-load thing. I mean, sure, GPA has an awful lot to do with how likely you are to get into any college, duh. But if you're talking about what the MINIMUM qualifications are to be considered college-ready, it seems to me it should be about what classes you've passed, period.<br /><br />Helen Schinske<br /><br />*My high school talked about A and B grades as "honors grades" -- don't know if it's a common expression.hschinskehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10316478950862562594noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28765366.post-88500231927983433702010-09-10T14:37:20.607-07:002010-09-10T14:37:20.607-07:00I emailed Schools First and asked about the 17% nu...I emailed Schools First and asked about the 17% number and Sharon Rodgers replied right away with the source (including links and page numbers). <br /><br />It appeared in the <a href="http://www.seattleschools.org/area/strategicplan/SPS_Strategic_Plan_2008.pdf" rel="nofollow">2008 SPS Strategic Plan</a>, page 11.<br /><br />The definition is found in on page 4 of Appendix B in <a href="http://www.seattleschools.org/area/strategicplan/SPS_Strategic_Plan_2008_Appendices.pdf" rel="nofollow">Appendices</a>. It says, in part:<br /><br /><i><b>Graduates meeting high school credit requirement for 4 year college (%):</b><br /><br />Students that graduate with a Core GPA of at least 3.0 and meeting the minimum college admissions standards for 2012 as defined by the Washington Higher Education Coordination Board. Includes 4 credits of English, 4 credits of Math (includes senior year math requirement), 3 Credits of Science (including 2 credits of laboratory science), 2 Credits of World Languages, 3 Credits of Social Science, and 1 Credit of Arts. Results are for the graduating class of the school year of this report.</i><br /><br />As Ms. Rodgers pointed out in her email, part of the problem is that Seattle has had relatively minimal requirements for HS graduation (e.g. 3 yrs of English when colleges require 4.) I think another reason the number is so low is that that it only counts students with a core GPA of 3.0 or above.<br /><br />I think this makes the number easier to comprehend. I really appreciate her quick and thorough response.<br /><br />The goal is to increase this number to 40% by '12-'13. I'll have to think about whether the change in the grading system will impact that one way or the other (I'm thinking that now that kids can earn a 3.0 for C in an AP class the % could increase without any material change.)Maureenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18444916440000921599noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28765366.post-268626002761286432010-09-09T09:02:03.444-07:002010-09-09T09:02:03.444-07:00I think the 30 percent stat might actually be for ...I think the 30 percent stat might actually be for the percentage of entering kindergartners who lack some or all of basic pre-reading skills, an EXAMPLE of which is knowing how to hold a book.<br /><br />From http://nces.ed.gov/pubs2001/2001035.pdf<br /><br />"The results of the ECLS-K indicate that, among entering kindergartners:<br /><br />* Eighteen percent cannot demonstrate familiarity with the conventions of print: they do not know that English print is read from left to right and from<br />top to bottom or where a story ends.<br /><br />* Thirty-four percent cannot identify letters of the alphabet by name: they are<br />not yet at the first level of reading proficiency."<br /><br />Helen Schinskehschinskehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10316478950862562594noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28765366.post-53052819444496847362010-09-08T21:02:14.874-07:002010-09-08T21:02:14.874-07:00That reminds me that I posted a comment (or tried ...That reminds me that I posted a comment (or tried to) on the A4Ed site over a week ago (it was pretty innocuous and polite as I remember--asking if they had any comment on the EPI paper) and I got the same (awaiting moderation) reply. Still hasn't been posted. I really have been perfectly polite to them, and have only posted there once or twice, so I'm not sure what happened.Maureenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18444916440000921599noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28765366.post-1275243267634500622010-09-08T21:01:36.352-07:002010-09-08T21:01:36.352-07:00hi seattle citizen: in reply to your reply to my p...hi seattle citizen: in reply to your reply to my post: yes, all those stats are covered in the linked report. I was responding to the questions that was posed, "Surely more than 17% of our graduates enroll in four-year universities - don't they?" It's apparently quite possible that the answer to that question is "no." I did not mean to imply in anyway that everyone should go immediately to a 4 year university [though I am one of those people who believe that all students are capable of and should get themselves a postsecondary credential of some kind].<br />--<br />To some of the other comments...the 'college readiness' question is different, of course . I don't have the exact stats, but I believe that something like 50% of students starting at 4 year universities in WA must take some kind of developmental education (remediation) classes - which would be one way of defining them as 'not college ready.' If I've remembered the 50% stat correctly, if only 50% of the 29% of HS grads who go immediately to a 4 year university don't need dev ed, then one way of looking at it is that we have a 4 year college readiness rate of 14.5%.thewalrusnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28765366.post-1006032335301458522010-09-08T19:29:37.187-07:002010-09-08T19:29:37.187-07:00So I went to the LEV site, looking for this, and f...So I went to the LEV site, looking for this, and found their blog, which I commented on recently. Turns out that the comment I thought I'd left earlier today was not posted. A comment I tried to leave is now sitting there, unposted, with a note on the bottom that says my comment is "awaiting moderation." Since no such thing appears on the other topic I'd commented on, I can only assume they looked at that one and decided they didn't like it.<br /><br />I guess censorship is alive and well over there. Figures.seattle citizenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16724175257161649500noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28765366.post-4958150929843994932010-09-08T18:41:41.401-07:002010-09-08T18:41:41.401-07:00Yes, I've seen the 17% statistic for "col...Yes, I've seen the 17% statistic for "college readiness" (% of HS graduates meeting credit requirements for 4-year college) many times from the REA when the Strategic Plan was rolled out.<br /><br />Check out the 5 yr Strategic Plan on the SPS homepage (p.14). The 17% rate was from 2006-07, with a "5-year" improvement goal for 40% in 2012-13. Where were we for 2009-10?<br /><br />In contrast, the WA state 4-yr college readiness rate (for 2008 graduates) was 49%. This is from a BERC Group report presented to the State Board of Education (online, titled "Transcript Study"). The interesting thing is that in the BERC report, districts that required more credits (especially math & science) to graduate did not have higher 4 year "college readiness" rates (adjusted for poverty), as kids would not necessarily take higher level math classes for the required credits. This report was presented to the state Board of Ed and they still started up with the CORE 24 push. <br /><br />But this summer, the State Board of Ed has actually thrown out the CORE 24 and come out with a new "20" credit push, with a new sales pitch name. BTW also- Seattle is one of the very few districts to require only 19 credits- more than 65% already require 22 for HS graduation, if I recall right.SPhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12726295210572942506noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28765366.post-39025910154678864482010-09-08T18:39:05.728-07:002010-09-08T18:39:05.728-07:00thewalrus, many HS grads might be ready to go a fo...thewalrus, many HS grads might be ready to go a four-year college but don't right away. Many can't afford it, many go into two-year programs first, many opt for other choices before college, many just don't go to college at all.seattle citizenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16724175257161649500noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28765366.post-46241041035796265712010-09-08T18:05:31.779-07:002010-09-08T18:05:31.779-07:00This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28765366.post-85866987877450127972010-09-08T18:02:35.803-07:002010-09-08T18:02:35.803-07:00The HEC Board reports that one year after HS gradu...The HEC Board reports that one year after HS graduation, 29% of all HS graduates (statewide) are in a 4 year university. And that figure is apparently only for HS graduates...so if you looked at all students who started 9th grade (~30% of which don't graduate), it's not impossible to believe the 17% SPS figure.<br /><br />http://www.hecb.wa.gov/keyfacts/documents/ChapterIV-PDF1-4-10.pdfthewalrusnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28765366.post-76227052843012102122010-09-08T16:53:12.408-07:002010-09-08T16:53:12.408-07:00LOL StepJ, you got it. SchoolsFirst is pulling all...LOL StepJ, you got it. SchoolsFirst is pulling all the punches of don't hurt the kids, we need more money, who cares about those pesky audits that weren't that bad, really. YES! Sharon Rodgers used this as a reason for supporting the LEVY at the 36th DEM Executive board interview. <br /><br />Seriously folks, if we want to defeat the levy, we have to ACT! We have to give people the facts, counter all this emotional baggage about doing it for the kids. It's going to take a lot of work. Just talking about it on this blog is not enough.<br /><br />I am off to the 36th DEMs general meeting tonight. I will be attending the 11th LD Dems and as many other groups as I can. Please, work on your own PTAS, influence your neighbors, set the records straight.Dorothy Nevillehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17108759281089768738noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28765366.post-70833747268093713422010-09-08T16:48:56.636-07:002010-09-08T16:48:56.636-07:00My cousin is a Special Ed. teacher in Yakama. He ...My cousin is a Special Ed. teacher in Yakama. He reports students enter kindergarten without ever having held a crayon.Sarahnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28765366.post-33850056721079126232010-09-08T16:47:57.406-07:002010-09-08T16:47:57.406-07:00So it is a diversion such as magicians use -- look...So it is a diversion such as magicians use -- look over there it is a pot of gold at the end of the rainbow -- don't notice I just picked your pocket.<br /><br />Thanks SC.StepJhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11375599834945035820noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28765366.post-87124748622353548032010-09-08T16:38:54.867-07:002010-09-08T16:38:54.867-07:00StepJ, an argument you might hear, like similar ar...StepJ, an argument you might hear, like similar arguments, is that money will be spent on "the strategic plan," or on "performance management" os some other grand scheme. This argument allows the arguer to say, "Well, these general administrative funds go towards all sorts of things...aimed at SP...or PM...the details of which are too numerous to go over here."seattle citizenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16724175257161649500noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28765366.post-3435050696288450762010-09-08T16:32:23.652-07:002010-09-08T16:32:23.652-07:00I'm sure I'm missing something...I'm w...I'm sure I'm missing something...I'm wondering why SchoolsFirst is using college readiness as a reason to vote 'Yes' for the Levy?<br /><br />If I understand correctly the only monies from the Levy in support of schools and classrooms is the raise for teachers and purchase of textbooks. All other monies would be for Central Administration projects.<br /><br />If this understanding of Levy expenditures is correct then why say passing the Levy will improve college readiness?StepJhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11375599834945035820noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28765366.post-14547194087579324902010-09-08T16:24:07.680-07:002010-09-08T16:24:07.680-07:00Patrick, I have to disagree. As we see here,, in t...Patrick, I have to disagree. <a href="http://wiki.answers.com/Q/What_percentage_of_statistics_are_made_up_on_the_spot" rel="nofollow">As we see here,</a>, in this reputable analysis, 47.3%, 58.17543%, and 78.587643% of statistics are pulled out of the air.* <br /><br />*One caveat is that they studied statistics "made up on the spot," which 97.381% of respondents would, considering all possible variables, agree is the same as statistics "pulled out of the air." (Neuman, A.E., 2011)seattle citizenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16724175257161649500noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28765366.post-15275464138349983142010-09-08T16:12:09.630-07:002010-09-08T16:12:09.630-07:0087% of all statistics are pulled out of the air......87% of all statistics are pulled out of the air...Patrickhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16260807460417787614noreply@blogger.com