tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28765366.post7662874601118483428..comments2024-03-28T23:38:22.511-07:00Comments on Seattle Schools Community Forum: Seattle Schools Enrollment Numbers: Hard to Reconcile with RealityMelissa Westbrookhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17179994245880629080noreply@blogger.comBlogger38125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28765366.post-15689963970238832382014-11-19T16:55:16.467-08:002014-11-19T16:55:16.467-08:00Thank you everyone for your contributions to the c...Thank you everyone for your contributions to the conversation. Some of the ideas and links have really helped to inform my thinking on this. <br /><br />It is very possible that there is a good reason for the enrollment counts. However, the only thing that is clear is that there is multiple conflicts across all the various data sets and nobody seems to have a compelling narrative that links all the data points. <br /><br />It would be better and easier for everyone involved if the same level of historical information that has been published on the SPS website were just published so that folks can be discussing facts, rather than conjecture and the gaps in the fact set.<br /><br />For example, in the past a simple spreadsheet that noted all of the teacher add's and subtracts's from the time of budget until the final October adjustment was just available. This helped everyone to have confidence that we were all at least discussing the same numbers. kelliehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01322661098626555834noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28765366.post-74854592654544242062014-11-18T08:56:29.786-08:002014-11-18T08:56:29.786-08:00I've asked. Several board members have respond...I've asked. Several board members have responded to me. But since the start of November, the only staff member from JSCEE who has replied to me has been the public records officer. Meghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12795753563127975720noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28765366.post-36618937189432785742014-11-17T22:23:44.989-08:002014-11-17T22:23:44.989-08:00This thread is so depressing. Has anyone directly ...This thread is so depressing. Has anyone directly asked a specific person in enrollment or finance - not sure the correct department, to explain the numbers? If so, who is that person - can anyone with knowledge post? If no one has asked directly can someone more knowledgeable than me do so? If someone has refused to answer, would we be able to get information through a public disclosure request?<br /><br />I am not trying to stir up trouble at JSCEE but it does seem that the shortest distance to sanity here is for official information, with a name attached, on how enrollment was figured this year and clarification on if/how the formula did/will change. <br /><br />Surely the district by polite inquiry or something more forceful if absolutely necessary owes the public this answer? We are the taxpayers after all, right?<br /><br />SavvyVoter<br /><br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28765366.post-1647177109772842112014-11-17T14:20:53.649-08:002014-11-17T14:20:53.649-08:00Following up on my previous post.
If the Oct 1st ...Following up on my previous post.<br /><br />If the Oct 1st 9th grade headcount (3521), as reported by OSPI represents the 9th grade COHORT size, then there was an INCREASE of 223 9th graders this year (district-wide). This is as compared to the 9th grade cohort size of 3298 given in the SPS enrollment report for 2013-14.<br /><br />However, if you look strictly at the OSPI counts for 9th graders from the 2013-14 OSPI form 1215, which states there were 3916 9th graders on Oct 1 2013, and compare it to the OSPI 1215 form data for October 1st 2014, which gives 3521 9th graders in SPS, it would appear that SPS 9th grade enrollment DROPPED by 395 students this year.<br /><br />All of us who have been lobbying SPS for more capacity since our now 9th graders were in kindergarten know that there could not possibly be a DROP in this year's 9th grade cohort size! <br /><br />If the enrollment discrepancies are due to a change in how students are classified and reported to OSPI, this helps to explain why it is IMPOSSIBLE to get the attention of the Board and/or SPS staff when it comes to the need for more high school capacity. <br /><br />Cohort sizes are GROWING, not decreasing! Really, they are! <br /><br />- North-end MomAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28765366.post-11032932139086352542014-11-17T13:41:10.006-08:002014-11-17T13:41:10.006-08:00It doesn't have to create a mushroom at 10th g...It doesn't have to create a mushroom at 10th grade, as the same thing would happen in older grades. <br /><br />Say, for instance, the old "credits only" approach said there would be 4000 9th graders--b/c there are are 3500 incoming 9th graders and 500 current 9th graders who don't have enough credits to be considered 10th. Once you switch to the cohort approach, these get counted as 10th graders. But there's probably an similar number of 10th graders in the same boat, so when you shift them to 11th graders under the new system the 10th grade numbers are still fairly similar to the pre-adjusted number. Same would happen at the higher grades. The fact that the total number of 10th, 11th and 12th graders grew more than is typical during this same Sept-Oct data period seems to support this theory, doesn't it? A lot fewer 9th graders, and a smaller increased in EACH of the upper three grades? It's not unusual to see data anomalies like this when category definitions change. <br /><br />If this is the explanation, it's disappointing to see that such a large number of kids each year don't pass the number of credits they need...<br /><br />Half FullAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28765366.post-46164882083677920482014-11-17T13:33:17.286-08:002014-11-17T13:33:17.286-08:00@Lynn
I second that! It would be so nice to be a...@Lynn<br /><br />I second that! It would be so nice to be able to see what is going on at the school level (as was possible in previous years).<br /><br />According to the OSPI form 1251, there were the following changes for total high school (per grade) between Sept and Oct:<br /><br />9th -566<br />10th +232<br />11th +295<br />12th +242<br /><br />(net increase of 203 from Sept to Oct)<br /><br />The policy change didn't affect just 9th graders, so even if 566 kids who were previously classified as 9th graders (due to insufficient credits) are now classified as 10th graders with their cohort, the 10th grade number wouldn't necessarily increase by the full 566, because there would be a subset of kids who were previously classified as 10th graders (due to insufficient credits) who would now be classified as 11th graders, and so on.<br /><br />It doesn't seem like this would dramatically change the budget situation, but it seems like changing the way kids are classified could be a big problem for enrollment planning.<br /><br />I hope they go with cohort numbers, instead of what is reported to OSPI (which would be a mix of the old and new reporting systems) when planning for enrollment/capacity, especially if they use averages over a 5 year span...otherwise, that decrease of 566 9th grade students (on paper) is going to throw things off for a long time.<br /><br />- North-end MomAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28765366.post-72033817239806198632014-11-17T13:17:49.216-08:002014-11-17T13:17:49.216-08:00The problem is the math. The math is wrong. The ...The problem is the math. The math is wrong. The math needs to be corrected. Once the math is corrected they can use the numbers - until then - they can't.<br /><br />Why aren't they correcting the math?<br />Po3noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28765366.post-32232103175319935052014-11-17T13:06:33.813-08:002014-11-17T13:06:33.813-08:00Sorry about the policy number error - aging eyes a...Sorry about the policy number error - aging eyes and a tiny screen aren't a good combination.<br /><br />Total high school enrollment increased by 203 students between September and October of this year. <br /><br />I agree Fedmomof2. I don't think this affected the total enrollment numbers for Garfield. I'd love to see the school by school head counts that make up the September totals reported to OSPI.Lynnnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28765366.post-24341709127585135542014-11-17T13:04:25.097-08:002014-11-17T13:04:25.097-08:00Add the running start count change to the cohort n...Add the running start count change to the cohort not credit change and you might have an answer.<br /><br />-perfect stormAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28765366.post-30047659018796573792014-11-17T13:03:04.617-08:002014-11-17T13:03:04.617-08:00We would only see a bump in the next grade level i...We would only see a bump in the next grade level if only 10th graders were designated as ninth graders. How many of the 566 were in 11th or 12th?<br /><br />That is IF the numbers are exclusively the result of that particular policy shift. There maybe a combination of factors that contributed to the data change. <br /><br />-never assumeAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28765366.post-64432004819895195832014-11-17T12:49:07.508-08:002014-11-17T12:49:07.508-08:00If a 9th grader were then classified as a 10th gra...If a 9th grader were then classified as a 10th grader, wouldn't we see this number go up for 10th grade, like a mushroom at that grade level? Also, they would all still be considered enrolled as students so I am not clear on how this would negatively impact the overall enrollment numbers of a school. They would still be in high school, just another grade, right?<br /><br />-Fedmomof2Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28765366.post-65520770740367731262014-11-17T12:19:15.880-08:002014-11-17T12:19:15.880-08:00If it IS this classification issue, then shouldn&#...If it IS this classification issue, then shouldn't there be a concomitant bump in the number of 10th-graders? Shuffling kids from one category to another could produce a drop in one with an increase in another, but a drop with no associated increase suggests those kids just fell off the map somehow (unless the 10th grade count already included them in September, but if that's the case, shouldn't the September 10th-grade count be dramatically higher than in previous years, and it isn't?).Josh Hayeshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17242600011474990770noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28765366.post-41933055633083506012014-11-17T12:07:13.632-08:002014-11-17T12:07:13.632-08:00@ North-End Mom,
I think it's actually policy...@ North-End Mom,<br /><br />I think it's actually <a href="http://www.seattleschools.org/modules/groups/homepagefiles/cms/1583136/File/Departmental%20Content/school%20board/13-14%20agendas/061814agenda/20140618_Action_Report_2420.pdf" rel="nofollow">policy 2420</a> that's relevant. <br /><br />It includes this:"This revision will promote students to the next grade level based both on credit earning or the number of years they have been enrolled in high school.... By modifying our high school promotion criteria, students will advance to the next grade level each year, which provides scheduling predictability, increasing access to additional assessment pathways, and improving the ability to provide students most in need with support services."<br /><br />So perhaps the original projections for the number of 9th graders were based on the old definition (# of credits), but using the new definition some of those could be moved to 10th grade with their cohort? Same would happen at higher grades, too.<br /><br />Half FullAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28765366.post-15657733849673875782014-11-17T11:14:44.670-08:002014-11-17T11:14:44.670-08:00OK. The cohort -vs- credit piece makes sense, but...OK. The cohort -vs- credit piece makes sense, but I don't see anything in Board Policy 3240 (discipline policy) that addresses how students are classified, but maybe I missed something?<br /><br />- North-end MomAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28765366.post-87575367077609713362014-11-17T10:41:34.517-08:002014-11-17T10:41:34.517-08:00North-end Mom,
If you look at this High School En...North-end Mom,<br /><br />If you look at this <a href="http://www.seattleschools.org/modules/groups/homepagefiles/cms/1583136/File/Departmental%20Content/enrollment%20planning/Section%206%20Enrollment%20Report%202013.pdf?sessionid=9d4bfad026b9b8ac385971e8ee977f37" rel="nofollow">High School Enrollment Report</a> you'll see (on page two) that last year 3,917 students were enrolled who had earned less than 5 high school credits. Page four shows us that there were only 3,298 students enrolled in their first year of high school. After <a href="http://www.seattleschools.org/modules/groups/homepagefiles/cms/1583136/File/Departmental%20Content/school%20board/13-14%20agendas/061814agenda/20140618_Action_Report_3240.pdf" rel="nofollow">Policy 3240</a> was amended in July, only 3,298 of those students would be counted as freshman. It looks like enrollment services didn't take the policy change into account until after reporting September enrollment.Lynnnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28765366.post-37034043874430165322014-11-17T09:29:45.892-08:002014-11-17T09:29:45.892-08:00Isn't it possible to receive HS credit for HS-...Isn't it possible to receive HS credit for HS-level classes taken in middle school...as long as the instructor is HS certified? <br /><br />Though, 566 incoming 9th graders with enough credits to be classified as 10th graders (or higher?) seems like a stretch.<br /><br />- North-end MomAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28765366.post-66559271586253824382014-11-17T09:01:25.184-08:002014-11-17T09:01:25.184-08:00APP students don't come into HS with any credi...APP students don't come into HS with any credits. I I don't think APP is the cause behind the odd numbers. The only course an APP student can take that puts them in any different position come high school is Biology in 8th grade. They take the EOC and get credit in terms of meeting the prerequisite for other courses that require Bio first, but they don't get actual high school credits for that course. For other APP classes, "2 years ahead" is just a nice phrase, not really corresponding to reality or having any meaning.<br /><br />HIMSmomAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28765366.post-58065716814177627232014-11-16T21:48:45.371-08:002014-11-16T21:48:45.371-08:00So perhaps the acceleration of APP kids in middle ...So perhaps the acceleration of APP kids in middle school has changed how they are counted based on credits they are coming into high school with? Is this true? <br /><br />GaspAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28765366.post-69904104982736895762014-11-16T20:17:46.674-08:002014-11-16T20:17:46.674-08:00So the questions is: what is the district doing no...So the questions is: what is the district doing now to provide an explanation for the historic drop in 9th graders this year?<br /><br />Answer: they are not because no one realizes it has happened.<br /><br />Send this to the Board and ASK them to ask. That's your best bet.Melissa Westbrookhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17179994245880629080noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28765366.post-49651360378688399622014-11-16T19:18:24.788-08:002014-11-16T19:18:24.788-08:00They did change how they count 9th graders/10th g...They did change how they count 9th graders/10th graders. Where they formerly counted them based on credits earned to "cohort" year (apparently because of the changes in testing from HSPE to SBAC). Could this adjustment be the source?<br />-10th grade teacherAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28765366.post-20707098848855880552014-11-16T17:55:43.232-08:002014-11-16T17:55:43.232-08:00Meg and Kellie, thank you so much for your work on...Meg and Kellie, thank you so much for your work on this! I'm sorry if you have already addressed my question.<br /><br />You have reported the <b>change</b> in enrollment between September and October. I'm sure you've examined the levels as well. Can you tell if there is anything odd about either the September or October <b>level</b> of 9th grade enrollment this fall compared to other years? In particular, does it look like more 8th graders showed up for 9th grade as compared to previous years? I'm trying to figure out if the issue is with the September count or with the October count or a combination of the two.<br /><br />Ingraham had fewer 9th graders counted in October than had been projected in the spring, but I don't know what the September numbers were compared to either. Should I try to find out?Maureennoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28765366.post-74855503132076791052014-11-16T16:59:17.027-08:002014-11-16T16:59:17.027-08:00The only logical explanation is an alien abduction...The only logical explanation is an alien abduction.<br /><br />-reality checkAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28765366.post-90343759756461458072014-11-16T16:17:31.631-08:002014-11-16T16:17:31.631-08:00I should be clear: I don't think SPS lost 500 ...I should be clear: I don't think SPS lost 500 9th graders - I think this year's numbers are simply wrong, especially at the high school level. <br /><br />I think the 500 student loss is an example of an error - a big, dramatic error. Given that the rest of the (very limited) data is filled with problems, it's hard to believe that the district has high school counts right at any high school in the district.Meghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12795753563127975720noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28765366.post-42642412458669093562014-11-16T16:13:32.173-08:002014-11-16T16:13:32.173-08:00A loss of 566 9th graders is over 30 students per ...A loss of 566 9th graders is over 30 students per high school. Seems like a simple email asking if any school experienced this level of drop off?Po3noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28765366.post-32320334729240561202014-11-16T15:46:04.230-08:002014-11-16T15:46:04.230-08:00Thanks, Kellie and Meg, for day-lighting this.
I ...Thanks, Kellie and Meg, for day-lighting this.<br /><br />I took a look at the OSPA 1251 form. All grades, K-12, except for 9th grade showed GAINS in enrollment from Sept to Oct 2014. <br /><br />With the trend showing gains at all but one grade level, you would think a "loss" of 566 9th graders between Sept and Oct would have gotten someone's attention!<br /><br />- North-end MomAnonymousnoreply@blogger.com