Here's Where We Are on Birth Rates

In thinking about closing schools, we can see that large districts across the nation are talking about closing schools.  Boston's district dropped from 56,000 about 8 years ago to 49,000 today; they are talking about closing nearly half (!) their schools. In Rochester, NY, they are closing 11 out of 45 schools. 

In El Paso, Texas we see a very dramatic drop in their district's population, from 61K ten years ago to just 49K today. 

Comparing birth rates, while El Paso's has dropped 21%, they are still at a high of 5.9% compared with Seattle which has the lowest birth rate in the country at 2.6%. Seattle's rate has been dropping since 2016.

So beyond smaller districts - which means fewer schools - what does it all mean?

From Politico:

The reason why curtailing immigration would send such large shockwaves through the American economy isn’t simply because the nation would be deprived of the economic benefits of immigration. It’s because the effect would be amplified by a much more deeply ingrained and long term trend that’s starting to surface more frequently in political discourse — the consequences of a shrinking population as fewer American families decide to have children.

A new political awareness is growing around America’s record-low birth rate, a debate that’s been turbocharged recently by vice presidential candidate J.D. Vance’s viral comments about “childless cat ladies,” which maligned Americans who don’t have children. Vance has called the issue “catastrophic” for the country.

And the answer (and Trump hates this):

But according to economists and demographers, immigration is one available answer to falling fertility rates.

In fact, according to a January report from the Congressional Budget Office, immigration is almost entirely responsible for keeping the population at steady state or growing levels thru 2054, even as the U.S. fertility rate continues to fall.

While many other developed nations are beginning to battle the demographic effects of a shrinking and aging population, the U.S. has been spared so far because of the role new immigrants play in keeping the population at steady state levels, or in some projections, growing, even as the number of native-born births falls.

In the United States, the number of births decreased 3 percent from 2022, according to the most recent data collected by the Centers for Disease Control, bringing the rate down to 1.6 births per woman over the course of a lifetime. That’s far below the rate needed to keep the US population at replacement levels.

Plus, there's this fun fact that scares the Right so much - around 2045, the majority of people in the U.S, will be minorities. White people will be a minority group.  As well, the number of white people will continue to drop. According to census data, Generation Z will be the last generation of Americans with a white majority

Interestingly, if you take the people who claim two or more races out, the white majority would then remain. Today, multiracial Americans are the fastest-growing racial category in the census and are likely to double in size between 2020 and 2050. 

From The Hill:

Writing in The Atlantic in 2021, Alba, Myers and Morris Levy reasoned that the “myth” of a coming majority-minority America was both false and divisive.  

“In the minds of many Americans,” they wrote, “this ethno-racial transition betokens political, cultural, and social upheaval, because a white majority has dominated the nation since its founding.” 

And, to clear up the notion these two writers have about "divisiveness," here's what is happening today in the U.S.:

White nationalists have seized on “replacement theory,” which holds that liberal elites are promoting immigration and interracial marriage to “replace” non-Hispanic white people with people of color, all to disempower whites.  

Continuing on:

“Despite what many people say, segregation has weakened,” Alba said. He notes that the average white American now lives in a neighborhood where roughly 1 in 3 residents identifies as a race other than white. 

That may be true but the South is trying to resegregate via charter and private schools. I have a post in mind about it.

In any case, demographers say, America will need a diverse population if it is to prosper in the decades to come.  

The nation’s median age is 38.9, the highest it has ever been. Median age is rising because the national birthrate is falling. These trends threaten to deplete the American workforce: Fewer workers means less growth.  

“Immigration is a good thing for America,” said Frey, the Brookings researcher. “You’re going to want a country that’s growing and robust and has a lot of energy and people who will contribute to Social Security and Medicare. And you can’t just count on whites for that.” 

Frey favors a new set of categories, starting with the 2030 census. The separate “Hispanic” question would be cut. Instead, respondents could check any of several “origin” categories, and they could write in any number of specific racial or ethnic identities, such as Lebanese, Guatemalan, Nigerian or Navajo. 

Such an exercise might yield a richer understanding of ethnicity and race in America. Then, perhaps, the “majority-minority” conversation would fade away. 

I'll just opine from what is happening in the here and now, I see no fading of some white people who feel threatened by immigrants as well. That as well as the falling birthrate will continue to create the churn that is American life today.