Enrollment News in Seattle Schools for 2019-2020

In what seems to be an annual event when enrollment patterns show themselves in SPS, we see that the patterns for this year appear to point to some trends.

Here's some news to use in consideration of enrollment, from the Seattle Times:

Census data show that for the first time in roughly half a century, Seattle’s under-18 population exceeds 100,000. It happened after a sudden bump in the number of city kids — and that’s a little surprising, because it’s something that hasn’t happened in decades.

In 1980, Seattle’s under-18 population stood at 87,000. Thirty years later, in 2010, it had only inched up to 95,000. And for the first half of the current decade, that number remained basically flat, even as the city grew at a record-breaking pace.

Then, from 2015 to 2017, the under-18 population shot up to 115,000.

Not exactly a baby boom, to be sure. Still, it’s a change, and passing that 100,000 mark again seems like something of a milestone.

The city’s under-18 population peaked in 1960, when the census tallied 167,000 kids. They made up a whopping 30 percent of the city’s population at that point.

Again, here's a link for schools with waitlists.  What does it tell us?

High Schools (9th grade only)
It would appear that many high schools, including Lincoln coming online in Fall 2019, are popular, with Cleveland STEM HS having a whopping 124 students on their 9th grade waitlist. Roosevelt HS has the longest 9th great waitlist at 87.  Garfield follows at 68.  Lincoln HS has 53.  Franklin HS and West Seattle HS both have 34 on their lists.  Ingraham has 32. (And these are Gen Ed students, not HCC.)

Middle Schools (6th grade only)
There are not long waitlists at any middle school except for Mercer (and sad news, they are losing their great principal, Cris Carter, and a couple of teachers) which has 27 on its list.  Hamilton has 22 on its Gen Ed waitlist and 13 on its HCC waitlist.  JAMS has 17.  Eckstein has 10 while Washington has 8.

But you know where the big numbers are? K-8s especially the Option Schools.

On the low end you have the long-time favorite TOPS with 35 in 6th grade and 18 in kindergarten.
Salmon Bay - 37 in 6th grade and 43 in kindergarten.
Pathfinder - 19 in 6th grade and 71 in kindergarten.
STEM K-8 - 22 in 6th grade and 42 in kindergarten.
Blaine has 21 in 6th grade.
And the biggest one? Hazel Wolf with a waitlist across ALL grades with 51 on the 6th grade waitlist and a whopping 128 on their kindergarten waitlist.

What is this about? Smaller school? Continuity across 9 years? Programming?

Elementary Schools (Kindergarten only)
Fairmount Park has doesn't have a huge kindergarten waitlist (13) but they do have kids at nearly every grade level on a waitlist.  Also in the 13-14 kindergartener waitlist range; Thurgood Marshall, Loyal Heights, Arbor Heights and Daniel Bagley.
JSIS has 65 kindergarteners on their waitlist; McDonald has 97.  Dual-language schools? Yes, please.
Beacon Hill Int'l has 28, Dearborn Int'l has 11 Ks on its waitlist and Concord Int'l has 5 Ks.

Here are some comments from readers over frustrations with enrollment, starting with
sage, Kellie LaRue.

The SPS's current practice of halting wait list movement, based on the presence of students from Rainier Beach is abhorrent and inequitable. That practice was championed by former SPS staff members Michael Tolley and Flip Herndon. The practice was advertised as "protecting Rainier Beach's enrollment" by not allowing students in this attendance area access to the choice system.

IMHO, this practice is indefensible. Rainier Beach families do have choice and they exercise this choice by enrolling in public charter schools and other districts. This practice is direct cause of lower total enrollment in SPS.

That said, the approach you are suggesting is direct violation of students assignment rules. Students are placed on the wait list in a specific order based on the assignment rules and tie breakers outlined in the Student Assignment Plan. The order of the wait list needs to be respected.

There are few jobs that the school board needs to do every year and one of them is approve the Student Assignment Plan. The Student Assignment Plan can be anything but it must be public and approved by the school board. This is the because the SAP is the way that that tax payer funded services are delivered to the public and as such public oversight is required.

The bottom line is that this practice of artificial enrollment caps, artificial staffing capacity and stilted wait list movements needs to be brought into the daylight and re-examined. 

@ unclear,

The current approach is not student- or family-centered. At all.

Yes, and that is the point that so many families keep raising to the board.

There is this notion downtown that the best way to create "staffing and hiring stability" is to hold the line on the choice system. That is what created this mysterious staffing capacity. Other districts get to set building budgets early in the year and do targeting hiring.

But the simple truth is that enrollment in Seattle is just plain challenging. Seattle will have 110 schools next year. That is 110 places where students can show up. It is virtually impossible to perfectly match students and teachers.

Most districts have less than a dozen places for students and teacher to land. Therefore it is pretty straightforward for other districts to do strategic hiring much earlier in the year.

Seattle has a lot of challenges, in large part because the state funding model is just not designed to support a district with "110 places.' Because of this, Seattle really does need to embrace more flexibility in the process and leverage the choice system.

The changes that have been made in the last few years to reduce flexibility and increase rigidity have made the system adversarial to families, without actually creating the hoped for staffing stability. IMHO, these polices are the direct cause of system wide enrollment decreases.

One hard to miss data point. The first year of the NSAP, there was a serious challenges with split siblings district wide. Right after open enrollment there were hundreds of split siblings in every corner of the district . But the district worked proactively with families and community volunteers and by the end of September there were only 7 split siblings. Two years ago, there was once again over 200 split siblings and there was no serious effort to reunite these families. How can anyone be surprised that split siblings lead to enrollment decreases???

The unfortunate result is that when families leave the district, teachers get displaced. Enrollment needs to be family friendly in order to create staffing stability. It is not an either / or situation.  

WS Parent
It seems to me that unnaturally limiting choice more severely impacts the kids farthest from educational justice. This is not aligned with the new Strategic Plan in any way. The Board should look at the Student Assignment Plan through a racial equity/socioeconomic lens. If they do, and look at how many students who are underserved are left on waitlists, someone would take action. Maybe this would break up the idea of holding onto the staffing stability model (which would seem to be more about staff than students), and instead focus on empowering students and families to make choices that work best for them.




Fairmount Parent
There is a separate wait list for each school and a student can only be on one waitlist. The number one student on Lincoln’s waitlist must be offered a space there before anyone else. Trading seats at popular schools to get around the waitlist order disadvantages students from unpopular schools.

Eric B.
Waitlists don't move because the system doesn't let waitlists move. I would like to believe that's accidental, but it's getting harder with each passing year of the same problems. With a little flexibility, dozens to hundreds of students could get their preferred choice of school. The last time I looked (spring 2017), you could move 250 to 300 students to their preferred school and every school was still above its budgeted headcount. 

Enrollment watcher
It's not that there is not room at Lincoln. It's that they don't want to let anyone *out* of Rainier Beach specifically. I am not sure if they are protecting other schools this way now, too, only moving waitlists until it would let an extra child out of this or that unpopular school. I agree it is a terrible way to run the system and is being fully exploited by charter schools now.