Early Predictions for Seattle School Closures
In a recent Seattle Times article on the passage of the district budget, Superintendent Brent Jones said this:
“And there’s no predetermined list of schools for consolidation, nor a playbook from other districts on school closures.”
I call bullshit.
To note, I'm not doing this to rile people up but better to know earlier; I suspect the district will try to stretch this out to the last day to ward off parent/community uprisings.
I was a member of the LAST Closure and Consolidation Committee and I can tell you there is no playbook for how to close schools. However, our committee looked at 99 schools. This time around the district is NOT going to look at every single school in the district. They have drawn up a list of maybe 25 schools (I don't know their end number will be - 10, 15?).
Keep in mind the district has said that most of the enrollment issues are in West Seattle and the north end.
- McGilvra Elementary will consolidate into Montlake Elementary (that new giant building at Montlake that they are building on land the size of a stamp indicates that). Or maybe Stevens Elementary. In 2021-2022 McGilvra had 176 students while Stevens had 223. Both had 77% attendance rate. Something's gotta give. (It is so odd to me to type those two schools in - they both used to be excellent and popular schools.) Montlake Elementary has about 184 students.
- Alki Elementary has just 297 students and could take in some from another school (part of the new Alki building is for 46 pre-k kids - that's at least two classes) but where?
Nearby Lafayette Elementary has 476 students and Genesee Hill Elementary has 521. Those numbers are at that new sweet spot for elementary enrollment that the district likes which is 500 students. Not sure what the plan is for Alki to gain more students but I suspect something will happen in that area.
- Still in West Seattle, Sanislo or Roxhill Elementaries will merge; not sure which has the better building.
- In the NE, John Rogers Elementary is on the list for a new building so that might mean Cedar Park Elementary or Sacajwea Elementary is in danger. Rogers' new building is expect to open Fall 2025.
- Further south, Sand Point Elementary is at 185 and Laurelhurst Elementary is at 273. I see a merge there.
- Possibly The Center School. I saw an article where The Center School wants to be part of the Memorial Stadium planning (not gonna happen) but the district did say at one point that if the Armory building gets redone, The Center School will stay there. Given that The Center School is one of the few places where the district rents space for a school, I suspect they are on the list.
- Possibly Queen Anne Elementary (at 205) and Hay Elementary (at 272).
- The SE has four elementary schools under 300 students - Madrona, Leschi, MLK,Jr. and Graham Hill. Nearby Wing Luke Elementary, in a new building, has just over 300.
- I suspect that North Beach Elementary will go into the new Viewlands Elementary building that is in progress. North Beach has 344 students but a bad building and Viewlands has 273 students.
- Lastly, Licton Springs K-8 will be a target with just over 100 students.
Comments
https://www.seattleschools.org/resources/covid-19-dashboard/
It was really hard to get the correct enrollment numbers because many sources (like OSPI's Report Card) mix pre-K students in with elementary students. That was the hardest part of the whole process, getting consistent numbers without pre-K students. Phew!
Between 2016 and 2022, not including pre-K students, elementary and K-8 enrollment DECREASED in all 5 regions.
Northwest
2016-17: 7,509 students
2022-23: 6,339 students
Net decrease of 1,170 students or -16%
Northeast
2016-17: 4,891 students
2022-23: 4,398 students
Net decrease of -493 students or -10%
Central
2016-17: 5,568 students
2022-23: 4,361 students
Net decrease of -1207 students or -22%
Southwest
2016-17: 5,540 students
2022-23: 4,838 students
Net decrease of -702 students or -13%
Southeast
2016-17: 6,044 students
2022-23: 5,290 students
Net decrease of -754 students or -12%
I further divided the Central region in half, basically drawing a line from Buca di Beppo to the old Seattle P-I globe.
Central East
2016-17: 2,922 students
2022-23: 2,322 students
Net decrease of -600 students or -20.5%
Central West
2016-17: 2,690 students
2022-23: 2,039 students
Net decrease of -651 students or -24.2%
Based on that information, at the elementary/K-8 level, I would expect to see some consolidations and/or closures happening in every region. But in order of most seats reduced to least:
1. Central West
2. Central East
3. Northwest
4. Southwest
5. Southeast
6. Northeast
Also, I would NOT expect high school closures. High school enrollment has been GROWING since 2018.
-Tara
And all this work! Even better because the district is saying something different and, if your work is right, then they should close schools in all directions, not just the north end. I suspect the equity work would make that unlikely.
I notice that Director Leslie Harris has been pushing back, more and more. I hope she goes out with a bang on the closures.
JS
Not Ruthless
It is good SPS is finally using phonics for teaching students how to read. Now if it could just get away from story problems in math. We had to use extensive outside tutoring for our sons some years ago. The math test scores are very bad for Washington state, especially for students of color.
District watcher
NE Parent2
Slippery slope
NE Mom
But the question is - which will come first; deciding on school closures or a clear picture of enrollment based on HC students returning to their home schools?
“We could have double the budget and still not improve student outcomes,” she told The Times’ editorial board. “We have got to be ruthless about our spending and be really honest with ourselves” on what improves outcomes for students. “We have to get really serious.”
How does Rankin define "ruthless" spending and cuts? Rankin needs to clarify.
I expect a huge cratering of NE population in the next few years. A set of parents discussing this and going to Decatur found out there was no HCC track about it and said, "What does Decatur feed to now?". Without missing a beat, the other said "private school".
For example, the over-building of Alki + excess capacity at Genesee Hill could trigger, in 2026, mothballing of Lafayette (built 1950), and conversion of Pathfinder or Boren STEM to attendance area elementary, and shifting of some of those option students back where they came from. Or Boren (built 1963) could be closed for rebuild as attendance area elementary under next BEX without an interim site, followed by closure of Lafayette when Boren re-opens. Too many scenarios to count.
- Curious Cat
Sacajawea
View Ridge
North Beach
Queen Anne Gym (what's that?)
Wedgwood
Columbia (Interagency)
Salmon Bay (Monroe)
Catherine Blaine
McClure
Lowell
Washington
Green Lake
Whitman
Sanislo
Aki Kurose
Decatur
Eckstein
Dearborn Park
Beacon Hill
Gatzert
Maple
McGilvra
Sand Point
Laurelhurst
Ingraham
Graham Hill Nova (Mann)
Broadview-Thomson
B.F. Day
Lafayette
Louisa Boren
Rainier View
John Stanford
West Seattle Elementary
Franklin
John Marshall
Leschi
Orca K8 (Whitworth)
TOPS (Seward)
Hawthorne
Lawton
Gatewood
Thurgood Marshall
Cedar Park
Olympic View
Ballard
John Muir
Bryant
Adams
Greenwood
John Hay
Dunlap
Jane Addams
Pathfinder (Cooper)
Chief Sealth
McDonald
Concord
Madrona
Stevens
Cleveland
Emerson
Roosevelt
Whittier
West Seattle HS
Nathan Hale
Garfield
Rising Star
Madison
Meany
MLK Jr.
Fairmount Park
Highland Park
South Shore
Roxhill @ EC Hughes
Sugiyama
World School (TT Minor)
Denny
Hamilton
Queen Anne (Old John Hay)
Frantz Coe
Lincoln
Magnolia
Thornton Creek
Genessee Hill
Hazel Wolf
Arbor Heights
Loyal Heights
Eagle Staff
Cascadia
Olympic Hills
-Tara
- Curious Car
Closures will directly and indirectly impact 100% of SPS school communities. It is not just about which schools get closed and the schools that are "untouched."
The closures will trigger an entire district wide re-boundary process. This process could be extensive enough to trigger the end of middle school feeder patterns. Closures are challenging to being with and to try to close schools and preserve feeder patterns may prove impossible.
This process will once again, bring back the "geo-split vs grandfathering" and "split siblings" conversations as many families will find that while their school remains open, they have been re-boundaried to an entirely different school.