Well, Well, Well - Enrollment in Seattle Schools is NOT Dropping like a Rock

 I had heard this news from a couple of people prior to Danny Westneat's column in the Seattle Times today.

A couple of parents dug deep into the enrollment data including October 2023. October is when districts turn in a count of students for the years. These parents found a loss of less than 500 from 2023.

 As one parent said to me, "There's no way to know if the decline is permanent or a blip." 

Westneat reports:

The October enrollment, used to determine state funding, in fact ticked up for the first time since the 2019 school year, before the pandemic touched off an exodus.

The district counts enrollment two ways, one with preschoolers and Running Start high school students, and one without. By the first way, enrollment rose this year versus last by 206 students districtwide. By the second way, it eked up just 14.

Either way though, the totals are well above what was forecast as recently as last month — which was that the school system would continue its bleak pandemic-era spiral down.

Outside consultants estimated there’d be a drop of about 600 students this year.

So while gaining 14 or 206 may not seem like headline news in a district with 49,000 kids, it is compared to what everybody thought was going to happen.

However,

“It’s notable that the enrollment numbers … already exceed the (highest) figures being communicated by SPS during planning,” wrote Bryan Shalloway, a Seattle data scientist and former high school math teacher who brought the figures to my attention.

He’s referring to three different forecasts presented to the School Board in the run-up to the district trying to close up to 20 elementary schools. One forecast was from district staff, while the others came from two separate outside consultants. Each offered high, medium and low predictions, for a total of nine estimates.

The actual enrollment of 49,240 is higher than all nine of the guesses. It tops the worst forecasts by 1,000 students, and tops the midrange estimates — considered the most likely — by 400 to 600.

 Good News/Bad News

Both preschool and kindergarten classes are bigger than last year, a positive sign. Public preschool is up 2.7%, and kindergarten up 1.3%. Hanging on to those families, by convincing them to keep going in public schools, is critical.

The good news isn’t universal. Poor Garfield High School, once the jewel of the Seattle high school system, is taking more blows. Its enrollment dropped by 150 from last year — down 9.3%. The entering freshman class is down 20%. The district’s decision to start ending accelerated tracks that fed into Garfield, combined with two shootings outside the school last spring, have taken infuriatingly predictable tolls.

Westneat pleads for the district to actually "mount a positive campaign for schools." He also urges for the district to not cut back on learning options. 

You can take the good news to the Statehouse in Olympia and say: “We are a stable school district. The people have spoken. (Now give us some money).”

I’m not saying the enrollment surprise means zero schools should be closed. But it sure ought to change the conversation.

Here's what I agree with but with an additional thought:

So the bigger import of Seattle’s little October surprise is: Take a breath. Nobody knows anything. It is not the season to do anything rash.

My thought is, though, that this does NOT inspire confidence in almost anything the district says about enrollment and closing schools.