Early School Board Election Results Seem Skewed
From The Seattle Times:
(I’m doing this on my phone so a bit wonky.)
Two races saw clear and dominant front runners while another is neck and neck.
D2 is the close race between Director Sarah Clark and challenger, Kathleen Smith. Clark got 43.6% of the vote and Smith received 44.8. Eric Feeny received 11.1% of the vote. How Clark and Smith might split his 11% is anyone’s guess.
I eyeballed the vote count and this was the race with the most votes at about 16k.
In D4, incumbent Joe Mizrahi received 67.4% of the vote while second place went to Laura Marie Rivera at 18.4%. This was the race with the smallest vote count at 11k.
In D5, Vivian Song got a big 72.3% of the vote while second place went to Janis White at 16.4%. This race had about 14k votes.
I’m think the amount for each race might be based on the size of the director district. I do recall when they redrew district boundaries several years back, they tried to make them evenly sized.
Thoughts?
Comments
I thought Rivera would do better against Mizrahi, but then he's an actual incumbent.
And I was surprised it was so close between Clark and Smith, Clark being the incumbent. I hadn't even heard of Smith before this race.
Does this mean it's going to be Song and Mizrahi winning this fall, and the real contest is going to be Clark vs. Smith? (And LaVallee vs. Rava?)
In short, the other two seats have clear front-runners who will benefit from the reporting on their races and will likely easily win their general elections barring mistakes/surprises.
The D2 race is looking like a potential coin-flip. Clark seems to have more ability to fundraise, but both appear to have spent everything they've raised to date. This result will likely give Smith's campaign some momentum.
To compare, Janis White also got the Times endorsement, but only got 16% of the vote. Clark got the Times endorsement and got 43% of the vote.
Smith hasn't shown any ability to raise money. Though it is a common name (Smith), her only donors beyond WEA and a single $25 donor have the same last name as her.
Clark is the only person left in the race who is Black. And with Sarju and Hersey stepping down, she's the only possible Black person at this point who could be on the board. I can't imagine the SPS board being 6 white women and then Joe Mizrahi, who does come from a refugee family.
I hope Clark works hard and wins this race. SPS needs her.
— Sand Point Mom
— Sand Point Mom
Clark-Smith is really interesting. Smith dramatically underperformed other Stranger-endorsed candidates. Clark dramatically overperformed candidates who got a Times endorsement but not a Stranger endorsement - 30 points better than White. Smith only has a Stranger endorsement going for her and that's enough to come out just barely ahead on primary night, but it's not going to be enough to win citywide. Clark has broad support from across the city's political spectrum and, crucially, from parents who actually pay close attention to SPS issues. While that race will still be close in November, Clark probably has the advantage.
This also suggests that if Rava or LaVallee get the Stranger endorsement in the fall, they'll probably win.
Not Silver
"Clark is the only person left in the race who is Black. And with Sarju and Hersey stepping down, she's the only possible Black person at this point who could be on the board. I can't imagine the SPS board being 6 white women and then Joe Mizrahi, who does come from a refugee family."
Oh, good point. I hadn't thought of that. Mizrahi has posted publicly about his family being Egyptian Jewish refugees --https://www.facebook.com/share/p/16J5ySjM1s/
It seems Smith just came out of the blue. I feel a sense of concern that I don't see any endorsements from a single individual. It feels like she garnered support from SEA (probably through a political connection) and garnered The Stranger's endorsement to push her through the election.
~ Voting Clark
I don’t understand why you are working overtime to spin Smith’s lead as underperforming. That’s some mental gymnastics! This is anyone’s race but no, Clark, doesn’t have momentum or the edge.
~Did my research