Dropping Enrollment in Seattle Public Schools

The Seattle Times has yet another story about the southward enrollment numbers at Seattle Public Schools.  It's a useful article more for what SPS says AND what is in the Comments section than the actual article. 

What do we learn from this article?

• Seattle lost 3,238 students from the 2019-20 to 2021-22 school year. And in the fall SPS projects it will lose 812 more, dropping its total enrollment to 48,748 students. 

• School districts receive funds from the state for every student enrolled. Dramatic enrollment losses create money worries for district officials, and in Seattle, officials aren’t counting on students returning.  Okay, maybe SPS isn't "counting" on them coming back but, as many comments said, "Why doesn't SPS do exit interviews?" The interview would not have to be long, maybe three questions that might illuminate the issue. But, as other commenters say, SPS doesn't do exit interviews because they want to control the narrative. Having data that doesn't match that narrative wouldn't be good. 

• The bulk of the enrollment decline was in the district’s 62 elementary schools. The elementary schools with higher enrollment losses were in the north part of the city, data shows. However, Rising Star Elementary School in the South Beacon Hill neighborhood was the exception.

• Out of the district’s 10 K-8 schools, Licton Springs had the highest enrollment drop, about 39 percent since the 2019-20 school year. Well, Licton Springs, now about 100(!) students is on life support and has been for probably a decade. That's not because it's a bad school; it is a school that has NOT been supported by this district. It's been moved around and pushed around and now is probably the time to pull the plug. 

• Meanwhile, the Archdiocese of Seattle Catholic Schools saw about a 6% increase in enrollment — the largest enrollment uptick in more than a decade, said Kristin Moore, director of marketing and enrollment for the 72 Catholic schools in Western Washington. That may be true but previous to that, around the country, many Catholic schools were closing due to under enrollment. It would have been good to know if that 6% made up for past losses. 

Looking at the list of schools and their populations (K-5, K-8), I think I counted seven at 200 or less. That is very dangerous territory. What really has me shaking my head is how many were previously popular schools like Montlake and McGilvra. What is equally interesting is how Lafayette Elementary, Cedar Park ES, Magnolia ES and Queen Anne ES have bucked that trend and ADDED population. Queen Anne has gone from 222 to 227 and now is up to 489. The Times reports it was the ONLY elementary to have an online program. And to note:

The upcoming school year the students taking online classes will be moved under the Cascade Parent Partnership Program. 

 

Here's a list, from both the article and from the comments, about why enrollment is falling. Pick your favorite or add a new one.

1. some parents can’t afford Seattle housing anymore 
2. others left to homeschool 
3. others left for education pods
4. send their kids to private school
5. new schools opening so there was a shift from one school to another
6. parents not being satisfied with public schools
7. tech companies not recruiting as much overseas, thus reducing the number of international students. 

That one - parents not being satisfied - should have its own list. 

• Parents angry about the length of school closures during high-impact COVID time.
• Parents unhappy about curtailing of HCC.
• Parents unhappy about busing.
• Parents unhappy with "woke" culture.
• Parents unhappy with perceived lower academic standards.
• Parents unhappy with homeless encampments allowed near schools.

Two things that come up over and over in the Comments section: that the Times really needs to do a deep dive on this AND the perception that the academic rigor has gone down. 

Interesting takes from the Comments section:

MyNameHere

As a parent of SPS students, I'll tell you the primary culprits:

- full year of remote learning

- housing affordability decline over the last 2 years

- the emphasis of identity polices in the classroom

I can't count how many times I've had to have discussions with my kids about some identity-related issue they were taught at school. I don't avoid those topics and do think these conversations need to happen, but SPS definitely overemphasizes identify policies and deprioritizes academic rigor. Oh, and the demands and behavior of the teachers union makes things worse.  

Most important factor was full year of remote learning - that's a killer in elementary school and the teachers union just didn't understand that.

Jones XVI

Wouldn't it be nice if reduced enrollment simply resulted in smaller class sizes, particularly for the younger students? There is no single factor that is more important interns of student success. Ideal class size is 17 students or fewer - not the 30+ kindergarten classrooms that we've seen over the years. That is the one thing that private schools have done a better job offering, for sure. Sadly, it's not even on the radar for SPS, it seems. The minute enrollment drops to reasonable levels where kids might have a fighting chance to learn, they just pull teachers until kids per classroom number is sufficiently high. If they are losing students, can't they ditch some of their central administration, instead of teachers?

Then we get to a very cogent issue of space which is one I need to write about because, I, too, have wondered about this. 

Archilcholus

Looks like there are about 15-20% too many schools open to support the enrollment. 

Terrance (in reply)

Excellent point. The question is: will SPS show fiscal responsibility and close these schools?

Well, as someone who worked intimately on the issue of closing schools the last time it happened, I do not like the idea of seeing it happen again. 

I can certainly see that creating demographic projections for any given school district would be difficult especially when a district doesn't have control over many issues. However, SPS doesn't even try (the article implies they think it's because of lower birth rates). 

And yet, this district has opened new schools (see Webster) and is renovating many more (Montlake Elementary is under 200 students and it will cost - checks SPS notes - over $64M. That's quite the monetary gamble to take. 

Here's another good comment along these line (and I can verify the numbers presented are correct except for one):

Lily Wiles

I live in a neighborhood near Viewlands Elementary School in Broadview. The school building sat idle for four years because of low enrollment, during which time thieves ripped out all of the copper wiring in the building. SPS decided to then reopen the school and taxpayers spent $10M dollars to restore and upgrade the building, install rain gardens, construct a new playground (that parents and neighbors helped fund).

 It was a small school with around 285 students. A good size for a small community in the middle of a neighborhood with no sidewalks with poor transportation access adjacent to an environmentally sensitive urban park.

SPS, flush with dollars from tax dollars(sic) from the good people of Seattle, decided that the building wasn't good enough. Now, despite the declining enrollment projections for Seattle Schools, the city is constructing a huge 650 student brand new school costing taxpayers another $58M  $88M that is wildly out of scale for both enrollment and the neighborhood.

If SPS was so flush with cash, why didn't they elect to increase teacher salaries and benefits? Increase the number of teachers per student? Increase field trip and environmental education budgets? Increase school lunch programs budgets? Build accessible walkways? Subsidize additional transportation? Provide students with books and school supplies? 

But no, I'm thinking there must be an education/construction complex that drives how our tax dollars are spent, regardless of what kids and teachers truly need. I have always happily elected to support school bonds. But now having seen how SPS misspends my hard-earned dollars, never again.

Now Lily doesn't quite understand that the building money and the state money are two different pots of cash and have restrictions on their use. But she is NOT wrong in wondering what the heck is going on with the construction dollars and the vision for SPS and its buildings. 

Most districts would not be opening/reopening buildings AND renovating old ones at the pace SPS is especially with falling enrollment. It seems somewhat suspicious to me. I think there may be a long game to this and I think it may involve charter schools.

 But like the Times, I need to do more of a deep dive AND investigating of my misgiving about SPS facilities and what they may be used for in the future.