Consequences of the New Student Assignment Plan
It was suggested in the post about AP classes, that under the New Student Assignment Plan it might be harder for south-end students to gain access to Ingraham and the IB program there. Why might that be?
Under the old plan Ingraham did not fill. While that makes us wonder why the school needed to expand, it also means that any student from anywhere in the District was certain that they would get an assignment there if they requested it. They had predictability. Ingraham has been very popular with south-end students. There are 143 students there from the Rainier Beach area.
But under the new plan Ingraham will be more full and assignment to the school from outside the attendance area might become uncertain. Who, you might wonder, will be going to Ingraham - and taking up those seats - under the new plan who wouldn't be going to Ingraham under the old plan? Students living north of Ballard who don't already have a sibling at Ballard.
For the next few years I think most of the students who are going to get an assignment to a popular out-of-area school will be those with siblings already in the school. There are a lot of families living north of 85th who could get into Ballard on the old distance tie-breaker but are now outside the school's attendance area. Those who got an older sibling into the school under the old rules will dominate the group of out-of-area students who get into the school under the new rules. For the first few years, there could be more than 40 out-of-area applicants with a sibling in the school so that no out-of-area student will be able to get into Ballard without using the sibling tie-breaker.
A similar dynamic will be at work north of 85th between Roosevelt and Hale which will make it difficult for any student outside the Roosevelt attendance area to get an assignment there without a sibling already in the school.
All of the rest of the students in North Ballard and Crown Hill, who would have gone to Ballard under the old rules, will now be at Ingraham, taking up the seats that used to sit empty and available for south-end students. These Ballard area students don't have a lot more attractive choices than Ingraham, so that's where they are likely to go. As noted, a similar situation will also push a lot of first-borns into Hale. Will the schools fill? Maybe. Maybe not. There's no certainty like there used to be.
But it's nearly a zero net sum deal, isn't it? A student shifting to take a seat also lets go of one. So if more seats are taken up at Ballard, forcing those Crown Hill kids into Ingraham, then seats must open up somewhere else - right? Right. The seats at Ballard that used to go to kids in Crown Hill will now go to kids from Queen Anne and Magnolia. So the seats that the Queen Anne and Magnolia students used to take should now be available. Where are they? Some of them - a lot of them - are at private schools. The greatest number of them in SPS, 103, are at Garfield - 56 in APP there. Those choices probably won't change much as I suspect many of the non-APP students are APP-siblings because nearly all of the QA/M area is outside the limit of the distance tie-breaker for Garfield. I also suppose that the 16 who chose NOVA would make that choice under the new plan.
Of the school choices by students from Queen Anne and Magnolia that are likely to be impacted by the change in the plan, the greatest number of them, 65, are at The Center School. After that, 39 are at Ingraham. 38 at Roosevelt, 32 at Nathan Hale, 7 at West Seattle, 5 at Cleveland, 4 at Sealth, 1 at Franklin and 0 at Rainier Beach.
These numbers and my assumptions lead me to project that when Queen Anne and Magnolia students are assured of access to Ballard High School, that a number of them will enroll at the school who would not have enrolled there under the old rules. This change in enrollment patterns will leave seats available at private schools and at The Center School.
If I were a member of the Center School community, I might be concerned about the size of the incoming freshman class now that families in Queen Anne and Magnolia have certain access to Ballard High School. I would consider intensifying my recruitment efforts and I would focus on Crown Hill.
Every shift brings another.
I'm thinking about four moves ahead here, and the accuracy drops with every jump, so I could be really, really wrong. However, even if I'm close to right, the families living in the south-end who reject the assignment to Rainier Beach might not find space available in the same places they found it under the old plan. It used to be at Franklin and Ingraham, but it may be at STEM, The Center School and West Seattle more. It is unlikely to be at Garfield unless you have a child there already. The end of the distance tie-breaker won't open up Ballard and Roosevelt until the sibling tie-breaker runs it course.
There are 56 APP students from QA/M at Garfield and another 47 QA/M students also there. Even if some of those 47 are not APP siblings - say only 35 of them are, if that ratio holds for other APP families, then there is reason to believe that for 400 APP students there would be over 225 APP siblings wanting to enroll at Garfield. There will be room for only 160 out-of-area students at Garfield, so non-siblings wouldn't have a chance.
Blocked access to Garfield would fill Franklin. A full Franklin would deny access to students from the Rainier Beach attendance area. Franklin has been the most popular high school choice for Rainier Beach area families. Many more students from the Rainier Beach area are enrolled at Franklin (548) than are enrolled at Rainier Beach (255). That can't continue under the new plan.
It's unclear how families in the south-end will respond to the new student assignment plan. Will just as many as ever seek high school assignment outside the area or will more of them accept the assignment to Rainier Beach? They have really been pouring out of there. See this map.
I don't think Franklin area students be able to get into Garfield very easily because most of the seats set aside for out-of-area students at Garfield will go to siblings of APP students. Also, Franklin inherits most of the students from the Cleveland area. A full Franklin cannot accept students from the Rainier Beach area in anything like the numbers they have been coming. Also, like I have been writing, the improved academic outcomes at South Cluster elementary schools is now being seen at Mercer and will soon appear at Franklin. Public opinion of Franklin will improve and people will begin to accept assignment to Franklin in higher numbers - particularly when they are shut out of Garfield.
So where will Rainier Beach families who reject that assignment find an available seat? Best guesses right now: STEM, The Center School, and West Seattle. I'm less sure about Ingraham and Hale. Sealth is looking very full under the new plan and I'm thinking there won't be space for non-siblings at Ballard or Roosevelt for years or ever at Garfield.
To choose STEM is to choose significantly higher graduation requirements. They may go for this; they may not. Presumably the families rejecting Rainier Beach are looking for something else; maybe it's STEM. It has the advantage of being close - they can get there on the 106. The Center School is also easy to reach, but it has a non-standard curriculum which isn't for everyone. West Seattle is a conventional choice, but it could be hard to access. You might have to go downtown first and then take a 55 bus to Admiral.
In April we'll know how many Rainier Beach attendance area families accept their default assignment to Rainier Beach and how many reject it and participate in Open Enrollment. In May we'll know where they found space. Everything until then is merely conjecture, but if I lived in the Rainier Beach attendance area, I would go to Open Houses for STEM, The Center School, and West Seattle.
Under the old plan Ingraham did not fill. While that makes us wonder why the school needed to expand, it also means that any student from anywhere in the District was certain that they would get an assignment there if they requested it. They had predictability. Ingraham has been very popular with south-end students. There are 143 students there from the Rainier Beach area.
But under the new plan Ingraham will be more full and assignment to the school from outside the attendance area might become uncertain. Who, you might wonder, will be going to Ingraham - and taking up those seats - under the new plan who wouldn't be going to Ingraham under the old plan? Students living north of Ballard who don't already have a sibling at Ballard.
For the next few years I think most of the students who are going to get an assignment to a popular out-of-area school will be those with siblings already in the school. There are a lot of families living north of 85th who could get into Ballard on the old distance tie-breaker but are now outside the school's attendance area. Those who got an older sibling into the school under the old rules will dominate the group of out-of-area students who get into the school under the new rules. For the first few years, there could be more than 40 out-of-area applicants with a sibling in the school so that no out-of-area student will be able to get into Ballard without using the sibling tie-breaker.
A similar dynamic will be at work north of 85th between Roosevelt and Hale which will make it difficult for any student outside the Roosevelt attendance area to get an assignment there without a sibling already in the school.
All of the rest of the students in North Ballard and Crown Hill, who would have gone to Ballard under the old rules, will now be at Ingraham, taking up the seats that used to sit empty and available for south-end students. These Ballard area students don't have a lot more attractive choices than Ingraham, so that's where they are likely to go. As noted, a similar situation will also push a lot of first-borns into Hale. Will the schools fill? Maybe. Maybe not. There's no certainty like there used to be.
But it's nearly a zero net sum deal, isn't it? A student shifting to take a seat also lets go of one. So if more seats are taken up at Ballard, forcing those Crown Hill kids into Ingraham, then seats must open up somewhere else - right? Right. The seats at Ballard that used to go to kids in Crown Hill will now go to kids from Queen Anne and Magnolia. So the seats that the Queen Anne and Magnolia students used to take should now be available. Where are they? Some of them - a lot of them - are at private schools. The greatest number of them in SPS, 103, are at Garfield - 56 in APP there. Those choices probably won't change much as I suspect many of the non-APP students are APP-siblings because nearly all of the QA/M area is outside the limit of the distance tie-breaker for Garfield. I also suppose that the 16 who chose NOVA would make that choice under the new plan.
Of the school choices by students from Queen Anne and Magnolia that are likely to be impacted by the change in the plan, the greatest number of them, 65, are at The Center School. After that, 39 are at Ingraham. 38 at Roosevelt, 32 at Nathan Hale, 7 at West Seattle, 5 at Cleveland, 4 at Sealth, 1 at Franklin and 0 at Rainier Beach.
These numbers and my assumptions lead me to project that when Queen Anne and Magnolia students are assured of access to Ballard High School, that a number of them will enroll at the school who would not have enrolled there under the old rules. This change in enrollment patterns will leave seats available at private schools and at The Center School.
If I were a member of the Center School community, I might be concerned about the size of the incoming freshman class now that families in Queen Anne and Magnolia have certain access to Ballard High School. I would consider intensifying my recruitment efforts and I would focus on Crown Hill.
Every shift brings another.
I'm thinking about four moves ahead here, and the accuracy drops with every jump, so I could be really, really wrong. However, even if I'm close to right, the families living in the south-end who reject the assignment to Rainier Beach might not find space available in the same places they found it under the old plan. It used to be at Franklin and Ingraham, but it may be at STEM, The Center School and West Seattle more. It is unlikely to be at Garfield unless you have a child there already. The end of the distance tie-breaker won't open up Ballard and Roosevelt until the sibling tie-breaker runs it course.
There are 56 APP students from QA/M at Garfield and another 47 QA/M students also there. Even if some of those 47 are not APP siblings - say only 35 of them are, if that ratio holds for other APP families, then there is reason to believe that for 400 APP students there would be over 225 APP siblings wanting to enroll at Garfield. There will be room for only 160 out-of-area students at Garfield, so non-siblings wouldn't have a chance.
Blocked access to Garfield would fill Franklin. A full Franklin would deny access to students from the Rainier Beach attendance area. Franklin has been the most popular high school choice for Rainier Beach area families. Many more students from the Rainier Beach area are enrolled at Franklin (548) than are enrolled at Rainier Beach (255). That can't continue under the new plan.
It's unclear how families in the south-end will respond to the new student assignment plan. Will just as many as ever seek high school assignment outside the area or will more of them accept the assignment to Rainier Beach? They have really been pouring out of there. See this map.
I don't think Franklin area students be able to get into Garfield very easily because most of the seats set aside for out-of-area students at Garfield will go to siblings of APP students. Also, Franklin inherits most of the students from the Cleveland area. A full Franklin cannot accept students from the Rainier Beach area in anything like the numbers they have been coming. Also, like I have been writing, the improved academic outcomes at South Cluster elementary schools is now being seen at Mercer and will soon appear at Franklin. Public opinion of Franklin will improve and people will begin to accept assignment to Franklin in higher numbers - particularly when they are shut out of Garfield.
So where will Rainier Beach families who reject that assignment find an available seat? Best guesses right now: STEM, The Center School, and West Seattle. I'm less sure about Ingraham and Hale. Sealth is looking very full under the new plan and I'm thinking there won't be space for non-siblings at Ballard or Roosevelt for years or ever at Garfield.
To choose STEM is to choose significantly higher graduation requirements. They may go for this; they may not. Presumably the families rejecting Rainier Beach are looking for something else; maybe it's STEM. It has the advantage of being close - they can get there on the 106. The Center School is also easy to reach, but it has a non-standard curriculum which isn't for everyone. West Seattle is a conventional choice, but it could be hard to access. You might have to go downtown first and then take a 55 bus to Admiral.
In April we'll know how many Rainier Beach attendance area families accept their default assignment to Rainier Beach and how many reject it and participate in Open Enrollment. In May we'll know where they found space. Everything until then is merely conjecture, but if I lived in the Rainier Beach attendance area, I would go to Open Houses for STEM, The Center School, and West Seattle.
Comments
Wow. How many APP students are there total? Assuming some APP students (from Washington) aren't at Garfield, maybe 5-10, this means 61-66 APP students are QA/MAG. That's a HUGE percentage of APP from QA/MAG, isn't it?
Helen Schinske
My hunch is that this is a problem because district staff insisted on closing Cooper and putting Pathfinder in (and yes, I absolutely wanted Pathfinder to have a new home via levy funds, but not on the back of Cooper).
I also remember that Sundquist supported that closure, but has not insisted on the district fixing enrollment issues in West Seattle PRIOR to this year's reassignment. (Sorry Steve, but staff's "system can't handle it" isn't a valid reason in a lot of our eyes...and many of us work in high tech.)
Anyone else in West Seattle care to do analysis here? Because if this is the case, then the community needs to speak up way more loudly than it already is about the effects of the SAP. Like speak up to the media, etc., especially during this levy funding news cycle.
However, Sundquist says district projections suggest that “the vast majority” of those who want to go to Denny/Sealth from outside the attendance area will be accommodated. Chief Sealth, for example (which has an open house/cultural performance night tomorrow) may be closer to 30 percent available seats than the district’s stipulated 10 percent “choice” set-aside, he said.
So, what is the basis for this information from Sundquist? Pretty different take on capacity at Sealth from Charlie.
I don't think they have much to worry about. Very impressive program, great teaching staff. They are getting a new principal, but the school seems pretty solid in there programming so I am not real worried about that end.
We will look at the STEM program next year, not wanting to waste any time on it at the moment. To many funding issues.
It is a great school and community. I hope it is allowed to continue on for those students who are not even in HS yet.
Just want to clarify. I think many families would be reassured if there was sibling prefernce at high school. I think there are others who would be worried that it would dwindle down the already small #s of set asides.
You're right though, it will be fascinating to watch this all play out at the high school level.
In the 10% set aside at the high schools, the first tiebreaker is sibling. It is in the NSAP and they didn't change it in the transition plan.
They are taking 10% of the freshman class of 400, so 40 seats, and making them open choice. Out of area siblings get first priority at those seats. At Ballard, and probably Roosevelt, that basically means all those seats are gone now, as there are I think close to 40 sibling incoming freshman next year.
The link I looked at was page 13 of the plan at the Seattle Schools website.
So, yes, there will basically be no room for anyone at Ballard or Roosevelt who is not in the attendance area, or who is not a sibling in the next couple years.
Maybe 10 spots, but I doubt any higher.
So,, choice? Not so much. Hope this helps.
Use of the tiebreaker is how non-attendance students currently enrolled at a high school will get their sibs in. Odd we can do this for high school but not for elementary school. Must be a space thing.
So APP is supposed to be for the top 2% or so nationally normed? And is what? 5% of district enrollment? Yet 18% of the QA/Magnolia kids enrolled in public high school are APP! Y'all are real smart over there.
Many people don't seem to get this.
So, APP sibs seats won't be guaranteed anymore will they? They will compete with all of the other non attendance area sibs for the 40 available seats.
For example, the District is assuming that some number of students from the Ballard HS zone will go to STEM at Cleveland. If that migration doesn't happen, then the real number will be 7% or 9%. I can dig up actual numbers if you want.
On the other hand, Ingraham has something like 30% extra space, which will all be available to students outside the assignment area. Where this will get really exciting is if the central office decides that some schools shouldn't have so much space for kids outside of the area, who may be fleeing other schools (like RBHS). In theory, if a lot of RBHS students are going to Ingraham, SPS could tell Ingraham to reduce enrollment to more closely match the number of students in the assignment area.
Eric
The only way a non-attendance area sib can get in is thru the 10% set-asides. (It's not a guarantee but in elementary you don't have 10% of the seats set-aside.) In high school, for the transition period, you'll have 10% of the freshman class size. If there are too many people for those seats, the first people in are sibs of current students.
What am I missing?
Or, the school could fill with kids in the attendance area. Then, even those sibs will be out of luck. Thing is, nobody knows...
A very nice house across the street from me is going on the market in two weeks. Three+ bedrooms, two baths, a very nice house with a great yard. Not ideal for a family with young kids -- since elementary school will be Sand Point, I doubt school would be a draw anyway -- but with plenty of space for a family with teens. Eckstein and Roosevelt guaranteed and a fairly easy commute to either school and buses to downtown. I have heard the asking price will be $550K.
I thought that was required by the Assignment Plan:
Open Choice Seats at Attendance Area High Schools
Each attendance area high school will have Open Choice seats available for students from other attendance areas who are applying for assignment to that school. p. 13.
The 10% number wasn't in the actual SAP voted on last summer, but showed up this winter. Is it part of the Transition Plan or the Assignment Plan?
If you do, I hope you will donate generously to Friends of TOPS to help the other families who can't afford that kind of investment. (Or maybe we should ask the landlord for a cut of the rent?)
Here is a link from the district that - in a round about way - shows that Denny and Sealth will be both overbooked with their attendence area students. The analysis disingenuously goes on to use recent historical patterns (um, under the OLD plan) to predict future trends. The bottom line is the district included 6 elementary schools in the "South" area (Denny/Sealth), and only 4 in the "North" area (WSH/Madison). Ten divided by 2 is FIVE, folks! Inequitable, incomprehensible, predictably bad.
http://www.seattleschools.org/area/implementation/TransitionPlanRecommendedChanges.pdf
Raise the issue? You bet we did. Who knows what their hidden agenda is? It is just so bizarre.
Let's run this during Open Enrollment and see what happens. Parameters?
http://www.seattleschools.org/area/
implementation/TransitionPlanRecomm
endedChanges.pdf
The data indicates the Denny/Sealth single grade enrollment at between 325 - 350, which is basically at or above capacity - no open seats, unless more students "leave" then "come in" to the attendance area schools.
Anyway, I guess the really appalling thing is this situation is not unique to West Seattle. The "10% choice seats" seems to have been a ruse of sorts - maybe an average district wide, or something. On a school by school basis it looks like several inequities exist.
I was so upset by this meeting, I was only a trip into my room away from emailing the media when my principal stopped me and let me know that the district called and said they were going to fix the problem. So, I didn't and trusted that a solution was coming with the second set of boundary maps.
Lies.
Sundquist had a potential solution he then reneged on.
We were forced to take a program that is as empty as the assurances the district gave us that the feeder school issue would be resolved .
This - in the words of the kids I teach- sucks.
How 'bout we start with the current freshman enrollment numbers for all the high schools. Then, we make a prediction of + (or -) n students for each school. Then, we break that down into 3 categories: 1) attendance area 2) siblings 3) out-of-attendance area attendance. 4) where the out-of-attendance area kids come from.
For the 3 option high schools, we could do a break down of which attendance area the kids come from.
We do know that in the competition for those out-of-area seats, all of the out-of-area siblings will have a tie-breaker advantage and be enrolled before any out-of-area non-siblings. At a lot of schools there will be so many out-of-area siblings applying that out-of-area non-siblings will have no opportunity for access.
At Ballard and Roosevelt there are large parts of the neighborhood which were within the limits of the distance tie-breaker under the old rules that are now outside the attendance area boundary. Families in this area with children in the school and rising siblings will take the majority - if not all - of the available out-of-area seats until those families work through the system. Only then will out-of-area seats become available for non-siblings.
Garfield is a special case. There are about 400 APP students at Garfield. Of these, about 325 are from outside the Garfield attendance area. Judging from a representative sample, we can reckon that these 325 students have about 200 siblings who might also want to attend Garfield. Since there are only about 160 seats available for out-of-area students, this means that it is unlikely that there will EVER be out-of-area seats available at Garfield for non-siblings.
The planned over-crowding at Sealth has been well-documented.
Garfield will become closed to Franklin area families who don't already have a child in that school. That will be a big change, since more of them have chosen Garfield than Franklin. With that opportunity closed off and an improved opinion of Franklin, more of them will be at Franklin. Also, nearly all of the Cleveland area students will be assigned to Franklin as well. That could close off Franklin as an option for Rainier Beach families.
This will be a big change for them since they have chosen Franklin over Rainier Beach nearly two-to-one.
So here's the $64,000 question: where will Rainier Beach attendance area families seek assignment?
The area cannot send 500 students to Franklin. The most there will be 120.
Will they be able to send 140 to Ingraham? Maybe not.
With Ballard closed to them, Crown Hill, Blue Ridge, and Loyal Heights families may fill Ingraham. It's unclear if the school will be able to continue to accomodate 143 students from the Rainier Beach area.
Hale isn't that big to begin with and now a lot of Northeast families will make it their choice. Families in that area have sent only very few non-APP students south of the Ship Canal. Less than 50.
Not Garfield, not Ballard, not Roosevelt, not Sealth, not Franklin. Maybe Ingraham, maybe Hale - maybe not. What's left? West Seattle, The Center School, STEM, and, of course, Rainier Beach.
A lot of them aren't going to think of these three other schools, and will therefore find themselves assigned to Rainier Beach when they can't gain access to their school of choice.
For all of the talk about the new plan preserving choice, on closer inspection the choices are, in fact, constrained.
How about we pick just a few data points?
- out-of-area non-siblings assigned to Garfield; I guess 0
- out-of-area non-siblings assigned to Roosevelt; I guess 0
- out-of-area non-siblings assigned to Ballard; I guess 0
- out-of-area non-siblings assigned to Franklin; I guess 0
- out-of-area non-siblings assigned to Ingraham; I guess 0
- assignments to STEM; I guess 110
- assignments to NOVA; I guess 90 (full enrollment)
- assignments to The Center School; I guess 80 (full enrollment)
You are forgetting, out of district enrollment, including the Avaition Academy, and private schools.
I do want to make predictions about the size of class in the attendance area high schools, though, 'cause that's part of the predictions the SPS has had to make, and, it is no longer a fixed number, since they have to accept all attendance area comers.
Here are the state enrollment counts for the HS's, as of Oct 1, 2009 (for the freshman class):
Ballard: 461
Cleveland: 244
Franklin: 420
Garfield: 447
Roosevelt: 436
Sealth: 342
WSHS: 337
Ingraham: 330
Rainier Beach: 117
Nathan Hale: 322
Nova: 127
Center: 101
So, Charlie predicts no out of area assignments (except siblings) for Garfield, Roosevelt, Franklin, Ballard, and Ingraham). So, what sizes will those classes be?
And, remember, the attendance area rule means that they have to "manage surges" (i.e. not cap class sizes).
West Seattle is a large comprehensive high school, with and has everything that goes along with a large comprehensive HS (music, sports, the arts, AP).
NOVA is a small, top performing, alternative school with some of the highest SAT scores in the district.
Center is a top performing, small, performing arts focused school, with some of the top WASL and SAT scores in the district.
Stem will be a science, technology, engineering and math magnet, with full college prep offerings (and small classes for awhile).
The only poor choice families in Rainier Beach have is Rainier beach HS, but it appears that they will be able to avoid RBHS if they choose to.
students who are prepared for a rigorous school environment, and want it, will be able to get it at WS HS, Stem, NOVA or Center.
Not so bad....
You are absolutely right.
I recently talked with friends in the RBHS zone -- they are currently in private middle school in 8th grade. After telling me that RBHS is a non-starter for them, they said they have applied to Aviation, Seattle Prep and Lakeside.
Aviation is their #1 - its close, its a good program and its free.
This is NOT the case. Center is a visual-art focused school that also happens to have PARTNERSHIPS with Seattle Rep and, occasionally, other groups at Seattle Center. They don't have a music program, nor a dance program, but do offer some drama classes. They offer workshops in a variety of disciplines, but they are NOT a performing arts school.
That said, they are a great school, but don't go there thinking your child will get the kind of performing arts program available at Roosevelt; they won't.