Open Thread: Waitlists and Assignments
By request. Discuss among yourselves.
Tuesday Open Thread
The speaker list is up for the Board meeting tomorrow; not as packed as I thought with just four people on the waitlist. The majority of the speakers are speaking on high school boundaries (with several wanting to talk about Ballard High). There are only three of us speaking about the Green Dot resolution asking the City to not grant the zoning departures that Green Dot has requested. It's me, long-time watchdog, Chris Jackins, and the head of the Washington State Charter Schools Association, Patrick D'Amelio. (I knew Mr. D'Amelio when he headed the Alliance for Education and Big Brothers and Big Sisters; he's a stand-up guy.)
Comments
-sleeper
Sped Reader
Googling sends me to faqs on option schools which lead me to believe sibling preference is a tiebreaker- the first one mentioned, then geozone. Doesn't say anything about entry grades, and this would jive with what I have seen over the years.
-sleeper
We were in a somewhat similar position a few years back. It did work out for us - but that was one (or two?) assignment plans ago.
Bear in mind that you may have other nasty surprises if your child does enter early. E.g., an early entrance 4th grader who qualifies for APP will only be admitted into 4th grade APP the following year (i.e., re-taking the grade!).
SPS doesn't make early entrance particularly easy!
Good luck!
- early entrant parent
2boysclub
MamaJo
Of course, this does nothing to help when schools have no "excess" students to swap with other schools. It's not a solution, but it is a mitigation, and completely free. I cannot figure out why the district doesn't attempt this.
I hear what you're saying.
Back in the Dr. Libros era they actually did do a compare for swap opportunities among several elementary schools.
Granted, this was prompted by family efforts as we approached Tracy to let her know of possible swap opportunities. The analysis was done and in fact the wait lists at all three schools moved quite a few places.
At that time there was only one person in charge of moving wait lists, so unless you provided the alert about easy swaps there would likely be no extra attention. If there really was/is only one person in charge of the wait lists for all the schools in the District, well...
If the parents with kids on the wait list at Roosevelt and Hale can possibly connect, so they can alert enrollment that #1 on the wait list at Hale is in the Roosevelt area and vice-versa, then perhaps the swaps you describe will be recognized and done.
But, without that request for extra attention there will not likely be extra analysis lent to the situation.
Like TechyMom, I do believe the preference is that we just stick with our Attendance Area school.
But, sometimes if you ask nicely and come prepared with actionable information you may get an extra bit of attention.
-StepJ
-Next year
It was decided that the early entrant getting their assignment school was enough of an improvement, that was sufficient. At the time, there was also a big conversation on whether or not sibling preference at option schools should continue, because guaranteeing the siblings at option schools but not "assignment schools" was potentially not equitable. So the decision to keep sibling preference but not extend sibling preference to early entrants was the decision at that time.
This was in large part because it would make wait list management much more complex. This would in effect give siblings as early entrants the ability to jump the wait list and well ... nobody likes to see their wait list number increase, instead of decrease.
At the high school level, you simply need some space for the dominos to fall to make those "swaps" happens as Josh pointed out. It appears that Ingraham is the choke point. Ballard, Hale and Roosevelt are all pretty full. Ingraham has some but not a lot of room. If there was away for Ingraham to move their waitlist, that would likely create enough space for the other swaps to start.
Also interesting is that WSHS has a wait list. That means that Rainier Beach is the only comprehensive high school without a wait list. That likely means there will be fewer choice seats next year.
Also, they projected a drop in enrollment when they cut funds last year to Hale (and other schools). So will Hale get that money back now?
Official enrollment numbers come out in October right?
HP
I know it looks that way, but at least at high schools, it is more complicated than that.
In theory, all of the high schools were drawn so as to leave about 10% of the seats available as choice seats. Now this is not "technically" possible, because at capacity, all schools are right-sized. However, "option schools" create the effect of choice seats via "swaps."
For example, Roosevelt was drawn so that it was "right-sized" for the area. Then it was hypothesized, that about 10% of the Roosevelt attendance area would select an option schools (Nova, Center, Cleveland STEM). Those seats, then become available as choice seats. Roosevelt historically had a high attendance area count and a low option school count so that 10% guess was in line with the historical enrollment patterns.
Each high school was drawn based on the historical choice information. At the opposite end of the spectrum was Rainier Beach where most students picked option schools. As such the attendance area for Rainier Beach is the largest in the district with well over 2,000 attendance area students in that zone. There is a clear expectation that those students will elect the seats vacated by other attendance area students who elected an option school.
So the bottom line of high school is that the students who elect option schools, open up a seat at their attendance area school and then it is a game of musical chairs until the various schools are unable to move their wait lists. As all of the students on a wait list are already enrolled at another high school, all of the wait list is effective a swap.
If the distance tie-breaker were still in effect, then there would be likely be more movement as "zero-cost" swaps like Roosevelt-Hale and Ballard-Ingraham would be able to happen, because all the students from those schools would be at the top of the wait list. That is what made the elementary swaps so much easier. Most swaps were for schools that were geographically close and most folks on the list were there as split siblings.
The one notable exception to this was WSHS/Sealth. Because of the Denny-Sealth campus, Sealth and WSHS were not drawn so as to reflect historical choice patterns. They were drawn so as to match the elementary school feeder patterns. As such, Sealth was drawn way too big and WSHS was drawn way to small. That means that Sealth does not really participate in the swaps as they are too-full from the attendance area.
For enrollment, there is a 4th day (today) count and an Oct 1st count.
The Oct 1st count is the big one because the State provides funding based on the Oct 1st numbers. We have been ending each school year with about 200 or so more students than are enrolled on Oct 1st but those students are not funded by the state.
In the past, they have made adjustments for schools based on the 4th day counts, particularly when there is a wait list because then they are confident that the numbers will hold until Oct 1st and the state budget is finalized.
Hopefully, they will be making these adjustments quickly because there are a lot of schools in the same place with "higher than expected" enrollment.
I'll bet someone could develop a computer program (an app, really) that could sort among the waitlists to let the "even swaps" happen, according to some priority list. Of course, the District would have to provide the data. Not me, of course, I learned programming on type cards.
Wow. 400 9th graders at Ingraham. If that keeps up, then Ingraham will be about the same size as the other large comprehensive schools.
With HP reporting 375 9th graders at Hale, that is also a big cohort. Does anyone know the sizes for Ballard or Roosevelt?
But back to your comments. With 400 9th graders, the "open space" is most likely upper grades. I think the official capacity number is around 1300. Until the full by grade enrollment is published, it is really not possible for know the nuances without actual data and the rest is aggregate numbers.
However, on an aggregate basis, since high schools operate on a master schedule the theoretical available capacity is the capacity - the total enrollment, rather than a pure cohort set up as in home room based elementary schools.
Again, theoretically, with smaller upper graders, that means that Ingraham likely has a bit of space, in the all things relative category.
This has the last five years of enrollment data as well as a nice chart that show the number of students that leave an assignment area and go into an different assignment area high school. For last year, there were 277 "swaps" and in total for all 4 grades is 1796 swaps.
With that data, it become pretty easy to do some quick statistical analysis of the wait list to see what is likely to move. But nothing moves, until one school starts to move their list.
Ingraham high school has 'space' because the District is blowing up it's attendance to 1,600 students. Via portables. Because it has got fields. So it will keep going upwards. In contrast, comparison....
Hale is Critically FULL and can't handle what's matriculating to it in the next two year AND it has no real room for portables, and like, they JUST finished "BEXing" it - with no real additional capacity (brilliant planning SPS!!! Note- all before Joe Wolf got here) . So Hsle can't shoulder more load.
AND Roosevelt is FULL with 1,700 kids - MORE THAN GARFEILD HAS - and Roosevelt has no space for portables (unless you count the football fields) and it too just finished its "BEX".
AND
Ballard high school is also completely FULL with no space for portables and it to was "BEXed" so it's not like the District can go back and add another floor for capacity purposes.
And of course, Queen Anne/Magnolia are STILL missing their high school (more excellent planning on the part of the District - because they sold it for peanuts).
Which then makes one hop scotch over the tiny but wonderful boutiques of Center and Nova to the next geographic comprehensive Garfeild, that is crazy FULL and also was just "BEXed" so no way to add capacity there via another floor and it can't take portables either (unless you want to consume the football feild).
So yes, this is why Ingraham will blow up: there is no where left to go.
Even with Lincoln coming on and Ingraham blowing up, the north is screwed.
But hey, Flip's on the job (for now), with his pal Charles, so they will figure it out no doubt, because they are doing such a wonderful job with Wilson Pacific, etc. ( hint - SARCASM).
Sorry to be the bearer of bad news.
--Messenger
-North-end Mom
All LA classes, I've heard, are near or over the 32 student CBA contract number, quite a few at 34-36 students.
LA (and History) particularly are labor intensive when it cones to grading and offering cogent and worthwhile feedback. Here's the math: 165 students x 5 minutes per essay review = almost 14 hours grading for each essay assigned. Shorter writings? Seven hours.
maureen
So convince me why practice football fields are critical at Garfield, Roosevelt, Ballard ...
This has been addressed in previous capacity issues threads, and I doubt very seriously that there's much room for convincing, but against my better judgment, here goes:
1) In the fall after school, the fields are used by 200+ students for football, soccer, track, & marching band - not just "practice football fields". And the field use for student activities is year-round.
2) agreements/partnerships with the City of Seattle Parks Dept. for after hours/weekend use for recreational sports;
3) The fields are not suitable for anything other than their intended use. Foundation, surface, plumbing, etc - these spaces were intended for sport use, not foundations for temporary buildings like portables. And even if we ignore all of the above, there are still those pesky problems of common spaces like lunchrooms, bathrooms, and building fire code capacity.
Don't know if that's convincing enough for you, but these are but a few reasons the "football fields" are not suitable for HS capacity expansion.
1. Clearly the fields would no longer be available for those uses.
2. Rescind the agreements/don't renew them. If play fields are so important - let the city find their own.
3. Do some prep work to make the fields appropriate for portables. Lunchrooms and bathrooms can't be the excuse - see Schmitz Park Elementary School. If you add extra classrooms outside of the building how does that affect building fire code capacity?
Thanks, NP
1)I suspect that there is much more use of Parks Dept fields by the school district than the other way around. Canceling any agreements would probably just result in canceling ALL sports, as well as really interfering with PE classes (which I believe is a state requiremnt). It would also affect the elementary & middle schools, many of which use parks dept property for PE and recess.
2) Fire safety includes having open spaces for the kids to assemble in the event of a fire or other emergency. In many cases, I suspect the playfields fullfill this purpose.
Mom of 4
Also, for high school wait list even swaps - I'd be pretty upset if my kid was enrolled at an unpopular school, was #1 on a wait list at a popular school, and then was line jumped by a kid who was already enrolled at another popular school. Why should families who live in neighborhoods with popular schools have access to 2 popular schools, limiting other families access to one?
These are the PROJECTED October Headcounts/ 2014-15 enrollments:
Ballard 1648
Ingraham 1220
Hale 1146
Roosevelt 1712
Is Ballard REALLY 100 over projection?
Garfield 1612
West Sea 1008
Franklin 1294
Rainier Beach 562
Signed: Math counts
Not a system we should endorse or create.
Signed: Math Counts
So no wait jumping as Spruiter suggests.
If No. 1 wait listed at Hale is enrolled at Roosevelt, and the No. 1 wait-listed at Roosevelt is enrolled at Hale - they will do an even swap.
But, no number 3 for number 3 or anything to skip one or two on the wait-list.
No need to add drama to an already stressful situation.
-StepJ
Signed: Math Counts (from above)
In effect it is a great big game of musical chairs and the wait lists stop moving when there there is no space for the musical chairs to keep going. There is no jumping spots. However, there are schools that can be confidently "over-enrolled" by a few students with the confidence that as the wait lists collapse, more students will leave the school than are placed into the school.
Here is the 9th grade wait list for high school.
Ballard 43
Sealth 19
Cleveland 63
Franklin 84
Garfield 71
Ingraham 28
Hale 51
Roosevelt 18
WSHS 10
All of those students are already enrolled at a school. Moving the 28 Students into Ingraham and then moving the wait list from the schools they depart would effectively cause significant movement in the 18 at Roosevelt, 43 at Ballard and 51 at Hale, since those students are the bulk of the wait list. it would also cause some movement at the other schools that are geographically further away.
What this would "look like" to many folks would be trades because everyone will wind up with the same number of students in the end. This is because historically, Ingraham attendance area loses 1.5 choice students for every choice student it imports and as such, it is unlikely that Ingraham would grow very much in that process.
There are no official numbers but I have been hearing some pretty big numbers at high school.
There is a systemic flaw in the projections that keep causing the gap between my personal enrollment projections and the official enrollment projections. The official enrollment projections are based on a 5 year average. However a 5 year average is useless when there is a rapid increase every year.
The current 12th grade class is the year where enrollment started to grow as a Kindergarten cohort. As such, it is the first of the larger class sizes that are coming through the system and that means this year is the first year where all 4 years of high school are full with larger cohort sizes AND students who accessed high school via the geographic system.
If you look at the High School Enrollment Data that I posted above, it is easy to see that the cohort sizes for ALL the high school are stable and growing. This is now the beginning of high school enrollment exploding.
To note, even after the JAMS split, Hamilton is very full--with an especially large 6th grade class. I don't have final numbers, but over a week before school started there were already about 385 6th graders registered.
HIMSmom
I have heard second hand that the assumption is we'll move to split schedules before Lincoln is available. It will take time to set up master schedules for that and would require negotiations with various unions - so I think we'll have some warning. I wish they'd start talking about it now.
I'll have a student in high school when the overcrowding hits big time so I am following this closely.
SavvyVoter
HIMSmom
There is no official information. However, I think HIMS is still around 1,000 students this year and the 6th grade class is nearly 400. While both JAMS and Eckstein now have breathing room, their 6th grade cohorts are also close to 400.
I don't know what they will do with Hamilton next year. The cohort scheduled for Hamilton for next year is even larger than the cohort for this year.
I'm not sure about JAMS having breathing room. Phase I of the building repurposing did not yield all the classrooms for JAMS to have its intended capacity (approximately 960 students). There are 4 portables onsite, which probably help, but there are still a number of classrooms, including science labs, which will need to come online before the school can comfortably handle more than 750 or so students.
-North-end Mom
sidneyd
CCA
sidneyd
Is there anyone at SPS working on High School? What happens when all these students who are in the new middle schools go to high school.
And very, very, troubling.
- North-end Mom
HP
I fully expect an IBx program at Rainier Beach in the near future to take pressure off both Garfield and Ingraham. What's the current capacity there? Under 600? It's the only place with excess capacity. And what population is the most "movable"? APP.
The question becomes how many/whether any APP students stay at Garfield in the years to come. Because only kids who were in APP in 8th grade are able to access Garfield, it's something of an equity issue not to allow new-to-the district or newly eligible 9th graders to have access. But, if the only 2 APP highschools are IBx programs and they let "new" APP students enroll as they do now with Ingraham, voila, equity is restored. And, they are claiming that all neighborhood high schools will have counselors and a variety of classes to handle highly capable kids, so it isn't much of a stretch to imagine the Garfield option going away, being considered unnecessary. Neighborhood APP kids will still go there (or to IBx) but everyone else will go to a local school or an IBx program.
Not trying to start rumors - just seeing the writing on the wall.
And 1800 at Garfield?! Wow.