Seattle Schools Losing Students

 From the Broadview Thomson lawsuit, we know that the claim is that at least 100 students have left that school.

At last night's Board meeting, it was reported that the district is down 3700 students this school year. That is a HUGE amount. And, given that SPS never seems to ask parents who leave why they left, we may never know.

And the money goes with those students so it's no small thing for Seattle Public Schools.

We know for Broadview Thomson K-8 that their loss is likely parents who felt their child was in an unsafe environment. What else?

COVID?

Loss of faith because of the constant churn in the district?

The slow death of HCC?

Then there was this story from NPR on Black parents making different choices for their student's education.

It's a common perception that white, evangelical families are the most likely to homeschool their children. But a growing number of Black families have started teaching their kids at home — especially during the pandemic. The Census Bureau's Household Pulse Survey found that in April 2020, 3% of Black households homeschooled their children, and by October 2020 it was up to 16%. 

In Black households, homeschooling can be its own unique form of activism and resistance.
"This idea of white supremacy and the inferiority of Black people lingers today," Fields-Smith said. "We are overcoming racism through homeschooling. I don't think white people can say that." 

The mother of two said she'd always coached her kids at home to keep them on track. But three things made her decide to officially start homeschooling. First, she wanted her children to be safe from bullies. She also wanted them to understand their cultural history. The third factor was freedom. 

Some families are also creating community through homeschooling. 

Her 10-year-old son, Alexander, agrees. "It just feels great to be around kids like me so you don't always have to be alone, like the odd person out," he said.

Comments

Stuart J said…
House prices! Rents too, but I can't believe how expensive houses are in Seattle compared to south King County. And if you're paying a sky high price for a house, and then private school tuition too, it is much more affordable to live elsewhere, especially if there are multiple kids. While there are lower cost alternatives such as the Catholic schools, full sticker for private really adds up. 13 years at current costs at the Bush school per child totals $464K. (188K for K5 + 115 for 6-8 + 161 for 9-12).

In another district, the district was eliminating honors classes in middle school. A parent went in to meet with the superintendent about this. She said "I think parents will leave." The superintendent said "that's fine, they can go" and then something along the lines of we don't need them. And indeed, the only time there's any surveying of parents about how the district is going is when they want bond or levy money. So the condescending attitude and lack of interest in where people go is not just in Seattle.

That said, I don't think there's a massive uptick in private school enrollment, or in charter enrollment. Not to the tune of 3700 students. So, maybe it is homeschooling, but I think it is more likely people who can't afford the rent or purchase price of a home.
Robyn said…
I followed SPS's enrollment attrition rates through much of the 2020-21 school year, using their monthly P223 reporting, available here: https://www.seattleschools.org/departments/dots/data-reporting-reporting-and-data-analysis/enrollment-reporting-p223/

The attition just **within last school year*** was pretty steep. From September 2020 to April 2021 (encompassing the period of online-only learning for the vast vast majority of students), there was a loss of 581 students, or 1.1% of all students, from pK-12. If you exclude pre-kindergarten (where a wave of students enrolled AFTER September), the loss was 735 students, or 1.4%.

The greatest attrition was in grades 1 (2.2%), 6 (2.0%), 9 (1.7%), and 12 (3.1%). What's the common theme? It was the transition years, the first year students were in a new level of school. The School Board spoke pretty words at the beginning of the year about providing extra support to students transitioning, and then — I can attest to this as a parent of a 6th grader last year — nobody did anything special to help them.

Sep-20 Apr-21 change %
pK 884 1038 154 17.4
K 3914 3906 -8 -0.2
1 4482 4385 -97 -2.2
2 4429 4353 -76 -1.7
3 4220 4178 -42 -1.0
4 4261 4196 -65 -1.5
5 4233 4195 -38 -0.9
6 4095 4015 -80 -2.0
7 3939 3891 -48 -1.2
8 4040 4041 1 0.0
9 3811 3748 -63 -1.7
10 3909 3869 -40 -1.0
11 3704 3657 -47 -1.3
12 4220 4088 -132 -3.1
total 54141 53560 -581 -1.1

Comparing P223 enrollment from November 2020 to November 2021, I see overall enrollment is down 4% (!) with 2188 fewer students now than then, and once again massive drops in 1st grade (-14.7%!) and 6th grade (10%). It's also interesting the preK and K enrollment isn't bouncing back form last year. If there's pent-up demand from parents who held kids out (or back) a year last year, they're not enrolling in SPS now.

Nov-20 Nov-21 20-21 %
pK 964 956 -8 -0.8
K 3979 4012 33 0.8
1 4442 3787 -655 -14.7
2 4404 4129 -275 -6.2
3 4222 4053 -169 -4.0
4 4249 3973 -276 -6.5
5 4229 3981 -248 -5.9
6 4038 3633 -405 -10.0
7 3917 3823 -94 -2.4
8 4035 3738 -297 -7.4
9 3751 3966 215 5.7
10 3888 3722 -166 -4.3
11 3703 3898 195 5.3
12 4212 4174 -38 -0.9
total 54033 51845 -2188 -4.0

We withdrew our 6th grader midway through last year and nobody contacted us to ask why or whether they could help. I wrote a detailed letter to the principal and guidance counselor explaining why we were doing it, but I'm sure they were overwhelmed by all the work they were doing to keep the school from falling apart. He is back in the same school this year and is having a good year. I wish that were the case for all the students, and all the teachers.
Robyn said…
Looking at the P223's, I can't figure out where the 3700 number is coming from. That's far more than the drop from Sept '20-Sept '21, Sept '20-Dec '21, or Dec '20-Dec '21, all of which are around 2200-2300.
Anonymous said…
Losing enrollment is not surprising when the messaging from the union and Board is that school is not safe, school is racist, school is a sanctuary for homeless people, and academics take a back seat to everything else schools are trying to be. There are more productive ways to discuss how to improve than what we see happening at SPS. I hope these departed students find greener pastures, and that leadership gets a clue from enrollment numbers. Not sure Pandora’s box can be closed.

Feedback Loop
Sinking Boat said…
The budget meeting made clear that Seattle Public Schools aims to kill Option schools which may result in further decrease in enrollment. There was specific mention of K-8. It should be noted that some 6th graders are simply not ready for comprehensive middle schools. The district is aiming to fail these students.

I found it interesting that the former SCPTSA president showed-up and went on a rant. The individual called attention to the "Anti racist- HC policy" which was interesting. When are we going to see Hampson's Anti Racist policy which appears to take aim at advanced learning opportunities. Kill advanced learning and the district will continue to bleed students.
Sinking Boat said…
Thanks to Director Leslie Harris for calling out a blank line item on budget documents intended to cut funding from option schools. Harris's comments forced the district to have a public conversation regarding this issue.

I would also like to thank Director Leslie Harris for publicly calling attention to lawsuits and other items that could be shoved under the rug.
Anonymous said…
Special Ed has lost around 1000 students. Out of something like 7,000 or so. That’s way bigger than any other loss. By far. Students with disabilities are cash cows for the district, bringing in at least double the funding of anyone else. To lose them, is a big loss financially. The district has already cut tons of special Ed classrooms and turned them into rooms for all disabled, no matter their age or needs. There were protests about that funding reduction. Yep. Race baiters showed up to that too. Evidently it’s racist to want good and appropriate special Ed. That’s pretty crazy given that minority students are disproportionately served in special education classrooms. If you make that super bad, like they are, it mostly impacts minority students, especially those who haven’t been successful advocating the truly baffling special Ed service maze. If you look at district demographics, you will see that the district is under a huge white flight right now. Is that what the race baiters want? An all minority district without special Ed, without homework(that’s racist too according to Hamilton middle), without math (also racist), without any recognized advanced learning either? Can’t we all just get along?

Enough
Anonymous said…
We made the numbers for 11th grade tick up by one, but really she just left a charter high school to do running start through SPS.

- Not There
Outsider said…
The end of advanced learning seems likely to drive students away. At our middle school, HC science and social studies ended this year, and probably ELA will go next year, and year-ahead math will be snuffed out at the elementary level. There was some vague hand-waving about differentiation for advanced students within general ed classes, but of course nothing and no one who knows SPS ever expected anything. General ed is designed for students who aren't interested and don't want to be there, which is not a bad thing -- a lot of students fall in that category and the school needs to serve them. But for students who are actually interested in book learning and have any real passion for scholarship, Seattle schools have come to seem like a waste of time on a good day, and a hostage situation on a bad day. The stories we hear around the dinner table every day -- about alienated students playing Minecraft all day, constant bad behavior, constant classroom management struggles, and teachers who seem to be gaslighting students as a form of revenge or are maybe just losing their sanity -- you might expect attrition. If nothing else, the bar for home schooling has dropped to near zero. Considering only the academic aspect, providing a better program at home would be easy.

I have told my kids they can leave any time for whatever alternative they choose other than private school (which we can't afford), but they stay for social reasons, to keep contact with friends, and for specialized classes that would be hard to duplicate anywhere else.

I always wonder whether public education advocates have actually been inside a public school any time recently. The truly important divide now in society is between those who can afford private school and those who can't.
Georgi Krom said…
An emphasis on education excellence would be the best direction for SPS. It would attract more affluent families and there would be more resources into the district. For many years it seems they don’t even care about doing this. A real effort would have to go beyond marketing taglines and into programs of advanced curricula that attract families who want them. Making everything about racism is not helping.
Anonymous said…
Many local private schools are expanding and have long wait lists. The Catholic system noted this phenomenon throughout the state.

My daughter graduated last year without setting her foot in her local HS. She did Running Start instead alongside many of her peers. She’s in the AS track at the Community College and will transfer to UW to finish out her BS degree. We’ve managed to reduce college tuition cost significantly and use the money for private schooling for the youngest. We got some financial aid from the private school as well. As a single mom, the last 2 years have been very difficult for my youngest as far as learning goes. As a family, we decided the best course was to have my youngest, who has a learning disability, to be in class continuously to prevent regression. The private school stayed open when the public school did not. (Please know this isn’t a condemnation of the public schools or teachers, but what we found worked best for our family.) I’ve been working a lot of OT this past year due to staff shortage so my daughter helps out with the youngest’s schoolwork. My daughter is bilingual and has made good money tutoring other kids with their schoolwork when nannying. People pay more if you are bilingual and can tutor kids.

Seattle mom
More said…
It is abundantly clear that students are suffering. We have seen multiple incidents throughout the entire district. Students are in need of additional psychological and academic support.

Expect the board to begin talks to cut PTA funding in January. Decreasing funding during a pandemic will only hurt students....especially dollars that are used for counseling .

Expect to see the usual horse and pony show. There won't be any meaningful discussions regarding grant and Title 1 funding or small class sizes for low income schools. Higher income schools receive less per pupil funding. It is worth remembering that a low income school receives an additional $1M per year, TAF receives an additional $180 K per grade per year etc.

I fully expect Rankin, Hersey and Hampson to go along with a scheme to cut a miniscule portion of the budget that will ultimately hurt students during a pandemic.

Georgi, I think it quite important to attack the systemic race issue in SPS. However, I also agree that the district should be able to do more than one thing at a time especially when it has the responsibility for about 53,000 students.

Academic excellence has never been a big, open goal at SPS. Some schools yes, but the district at times seems almost ashamed of students who excel academically. You never see the kind of attention to those students relative to students who excel in sports or the arts.

Seattle Mom, good for you. Sometimes people mistake your kind of story as saying that some parents don't care about their child's education. I myself have never thought that. But I think there is an emphasis in some families that others don't have. There's a belief that there's a role for parents in education, not just sending your child to school and leaving it all to the teachers.

More, you get an amen from me. I think so many students - across the district, across grade levels - are struggling to cope.

Well, the Board has been saying they really must get to PTA funding and never do. Ditto from the Seattle Council PTSA who talk a big game but where is the conversation about that issue? I think it unfair to blame some schools for their funding raising without offer real solutions.

So I think it unfair to compare Title One funding because that money is quite restricted. I suspect many Title One schools would love to spend the money in other ways but can't.

And yes, South Shore K-8 has gotten $1M a year for what? at least 15 years. And their outcomes? You never hear a lot about it.

TAF is something of a different story but one I have heard little about in terms of how it's going. Are parents happy? Students? Why doesn't the Board get updates on this partnership given its unique place in SPS?

As for who on the Board will do what, well, there are many shoes to drop and Hampson won't be able to keep up her bullying for long. The wild card really is Sarju who seems strangely unprepared for this role. I know she had to have received documentation/training on being a board director. But she asked a lot of basic questions at her first Board meeting. It was odd.
Georgi Krom said…
I do think teaching about race is important, especially in humanities or history classes. Our older son gained more insights from Jon Greenberg’s class on that subject at The Center School.
But I do not think they need to put racial politics into every class. It does not belong in math classes, where SPS has chased fads for years. Our younger son’s math teacher at Ballard H.S. was very critical of the way math was taught. Proficiency lost ground to story problems.
I agree that SPS does not value students who excel academically. They gut honors classes to chase equality but all it does is limit the offerings. SPS could attract more students if they emphasized better quality and more choices in curricula.
Anonymous said…
Anyone who thinks “story problems” vs proficiency is an issue for academic excellence isn’t a serious thinker. Mathematics is about solving problems and critical thinking, not rote proficiency of mathematical mechanics. Racial politics is a big deal in SPS, but they continue to miss the mark on anything of substance. Racial justice shouldn’t be about accusing staff of racism at every turn. That will simply deplete our schools of staff and sow seeds of division. Lest we forget, Seattle is a very white city, amongst the whitest in the nation. When that pendulum swings back, it won’t be pretty. We need our kids to learn about minority contributions in every subject rather teaching a weird amorphous “ethnic studies” dreamed up by self aggrandizing self appointed experts.

Reader
I am somewhere in the middle. I think you can bring in some interesting historical information about math (like algebra being invented by a 9th-century Muslim mathematician) without any commentary and you go on to the lesson that day. Tell kids that black women helped do the calculations that got men to the moon and go on to the lesson. Weaving that in to bring more real-life to more kids might be a good thing.

Reader, you hit the nail on the head about accusing staff. Policy 0040 is really all about punishment. According to Hampson, Policy 0030 that was about race and SPS but had no teeth. So she and former director Jill Geary found a policy from another state to start that work (and I intend to find that policy and compare it with 0040).

If principals are the front line in enforcement, it's gonna take a lot of their time.
Georgi Krom said…
Critical thinking concepts always sound good instead of basic math skills and enough practice to reach proficiency. Ask science professor Cliff Mass at UW how well that conceptual approach worked for his unprepared students or former Ballard teacher Ted Nutting. The “Everyday Math” elementary textbooks were finally replaced, I believe, since they were primarily story problems and did not teach math. Not the greatest prep for non English speakers or kids with attention challenges. They needed a direct approach to math and never got it.

The Kumon centers are full of math prep tutoring for students who need help and can afford it. SPS just keeps following whatever fad is in fashion.
Outsider said…
Story problems vs. proficiency in math is a red herring. The real problem with story math is that it's too difficult. Given an ordinary math problem, you execute a series of algorithms and get the answer. Given a story problem, you first have to figure out the math problem that's embedded in the story, and then you execute a series of algorithms and get the answer. Recognizing the math embedded in a story is obviously a very important life skill, not to mention a job skill in science and engineering. But it's also very hard for elementary-aged students. Story math generally fails because it limits students to the level of math an average student is capable of extracting from stories, which is much lower than the level of math they could do simply as math. In traditional (sensible) math instruction, story problems are used as advanced work: after you master the basic operations, OK, lets see if you can recognize which of those operations are embedded in this story.

For some reason, the "experts" have decided that math is somehow more engaging when presented as "[ethnic name #1] has 3 marbles. [ethnic name #2] has four marbles. [whitish name] has 26 marbles. How many marbles do they have in total?" instead of just asking what's 3 + 4 + 26. I doubt there is any evidence for this, and it seems unlikely on its face. From my experience with kids and math, a lot of them hate story problems, few if any like them, and none have any natural skill for them. The educational experts now days see everything through such thick ideological lenses that they have lost touch with reality. It's not just Seattle. I spoke recently with a 6th grade math teacher in a neighboring district who expressed astonishment at how little his students knew, as if the feeder elementary schools were not teaching math at all.

Public school educators have embarked on a sustained denial of reality: that students vary in their interest in and/or talent for math. They choose one size that fits no one, and claim it fits everyone. Meanwhile, most of the actual math learning happens at home on Khan Academy or (if parents have more money than time) at Kumon. It's a hassle for families who have the motivation and/or money to deal with it, but a total wipeout for talented students whose families don't. It also makes families look for an exit.
Georgi Krom said…
I agree with Outsider about the complexity of story problems in math. They confuse students for no reason where a more direct approach would succeed. Students with ADHD or where English is a second language get lost easily with conceptual story problems.

Blame past school superintendents like Terry Bergesen for this trend. It is also popular in teacher training programs or wherever educators prefer English classes over math classes. Now they may add racial politics in math classes. These subjects are appropriate in history or higher level political science classes but they will slow kids down in math.

My husband was encouraged when he asked new SPS director Vivian Song Maritz which math she recommended and she mentioned Singapore math. Not sure how far she can get with the central office, which is entrenched in fads for curricula. They ought to ask colleges and vocational schools what students are lacking in math and why so many require remedial math. To my knowledge, SPS never has done this.

It is inexcusable that so many students cannot progress to higher math or science levels.
Anonymous said…
Outsider is off base. Cliff Mas got fired for repeatedly veering out of his lane. Nobody cares about his ignorant pedagogical opinions. Not UW, not SPS, not OSPI, not KUOW. College profs whining about high school students need to figure out how to reach students where they actually are and just get their jobs done. It’s ridiculous to cry about diversity in colleges and then huff and puff about inadequate math ed. Math ed has always been an intentional equity barrier without any other reason for existing. Maybe this is why the tenure system is under attack. All math problems of any any value are in fact story problems. So let’s have higher standards than Kumon or Singapore. Khan Academy is free. No reason any person can’t simply do it on their own if that’s their passion, or the “story problem” doesn’t work for them, or they find they need math they don’t understand for some actual purpose. We need spiraling curriculum, students need to discover some things on their own (yes a challenge) , they won’t always be spoon fed. We have a mobile population. We can’t rely on lock step spoon feeding with expensive consumables and trainings.

“Pick a number, any number. If it's even, divide it by 2. If it's odd, multiply it by 3 and add 1. Now repeat those steps again with your new number. Eventually, if you keep going, you'll eventually end up at 1 every single time. Is this true for ALL numbers?”

“What is the largest sofa that can pivot around an L-shaped hallway corner?”

These are unsolved math problems an elementary student can understand. Who knows? If given the opportunity, maybe one of our students will solve them. It’s worth giving them that opportunity to think. No artificial ethnic names, marbles, or anything else. I do grant you that many of these curricula do have artificial and contrived problems. But, no reason to give up.

Move On
Georgi Krom said…
The opinions of Cliff Mas were absolutely shared by other math professionals. He tracked student proficiency in math for several years and incoming freshman scores at UW got worse after the introduction of conceptual math textbooks from OSPI. He knew students unable to progress into higher level science because they were so unprepared in math skills. These students may have received good grades in high school and did not know how behind they were.

Why should SPS students do evening Khan Academy classes because of inadequate public school math curricula? It is fair to expect SPS to teach math and prepare students for high school math, vocational paths or college. Many never catch up.
Anonymous said…
Today we have SPS teachers tweeting about how dangerous schools are with COVID, fighting, threats etc etc and “math isn’t really very important” anyway. No solutions, just grievances disguised as *questions.* Here’s a story problem for you: if a school district loses 3,000 students at $20,000 annual revenue each, how many teachers will be cut from the payroll? Seriously, we’re all better off without the editorializing.

Lay Off
Lay Off, I don't understand your comment.

Who is editorializing? Why shouldn't teachers talk about current issues?
Outsider said…
Lay Off -- such a deliciously ambiguous screen name. Thumbs up for that. But also no fair referring to tweets without giving links.

I appreciate Move On articulating honestly the mindset of SPS insiders. It comes across as take-it-or-leave-it, but I don't think that's a mistake. Move On is describing the one size that's going to fit your student whether it fits or not, and if you don't want to take it, you can ... well, you know. That really is the choice families face with public education.
Anonymous said…
Georgi Krom, what exactly is a “math professional”? It’s an intellectual field of thought, not a profession. And, why should anyone care about what a bunch of professors think even if what you posit is true? The only true “math professional” is a college professor. And they are only professionals because a university has hired them. And truly, if these professors have problem with students, then they should meet them where they are. Nobody is really unable to progress in science because of their math skills. If a student is missing a concept, that gap can be filled many ways. Whining college professors could just as easily fill the gap. And oh puhleaze. They never catch up? Shouldn’t we be done with the idea that students are *gasp* always behind in something by now. Btw. All students are actually prepared for high school math. Students can also sdo Khan Academy (free and self paced) at home instead of math period. I know kids who have done this so surely it is possible. The point here is that math wars have been around for literally centuries. There are many ways to skin a cat. Let’s just …

Move On
Math is not a profession? Well, the teaching and research IS a profession.

And professors are only professionals because a university hired them? My late husband would be amused by that. People don't get PhDs just for fun. If you do not believe in the expertise of the highest educational professionals, I wonder if you believe in doctors.

Nobody is really unable to progress in science because of their math skills."
"
ALL of life is math and science, they go hand in hand. You could not do scientific calculations, read the data, without math.

"Shouldn’t we be done with the idea that students are *gasp* always behind in something by now?"

Tell that to the colleges and universities that HAVE to offer many remedial classes. It's not a choice of resources that any of them would make but they have to help those students.

"I know kids who have done this so surely it is possible."

Well, if you know kids who have done this it just MUST be true.

Yes, let's move on with this now-silly discussion.
Anonymous said…
No need to take offense at common parlance. Universities are institutions of higher learning that accommodate all sorts of activities such as various levels of education, support for professions, research, and development. Professions are typically supported by Schools of Business, Schools of Medicine, Schools of Law, and some others. Typically they are way more expensive to attend because they are professional schools and graduates can be expected to easily earn back the high price tags. The primary job of a university professor is research in an field of study, furthering the field as a whole, tenure being granted when the professor demonstrates the ability to produce research to other professors. The profession is “college professor”. People do get PhDs because they wish to further that knowledge and sometimes they’re all off track. Yes I would say that’s a type of “fun”, but it isn’t a belittling label as you suggested. My words would be passion or curiosity motivate PhD acquisition. But college professor status isn’t a license in k-12 pedagogy. Maybe colleges should stop thinking of their offerings as remedial. Our most competitive colleges have 0 problem finding students who know what the institutions expect. When we expect every single person to attend college, we’re going to have to change what college means. And that’s a good thing.

Move On
Move On, I guess I should thank you for that explanation. Except that my husband was associated with a university department for 25 years.

Yes, Harvard and Yale and Princeton do get their pick of the brightest students but that isn't the issue.

And who said every kid will graduate college? Not today, not in the last 10 years.

As I said, we are now moving on.

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