Tuesday, August 16, 2011

Election Predictions

It's always a hard call for School Board. 

They are predicting about a 24% turnout for this primary.  Shave off at least 8% for people who just don't vote for School Board (always happens - the vote count for City Council is always higher).  So every vote counts.

I've been asked if I think people are angry enough to vote out the incumbents.  I think the problem is not anger or frustration or confusion - it's exhaustion. 

Can we believe the incumbents when they say they WILL provide more oversight (despite the fact that they had a lot of community input on many issues and ignored most of it in their votes only to have it come back and bite them.  I note that Martin-Morris is running heavily on his no votes on the MLK, Jr. building sale and school closures.)

I think four years is enough.  If I had seen anyone slowing changing course, maybe.  (Sherry has but I haven't seen any pushback from her to staff, just some scolding.)  That Peter had no answer to what he would do differently in second term and Steve and Harium said they wouldn't be changing anything, well, that leaves only Sherry who seems to have considered what has come before.

My predictions:

Position 1 - Peter Maier, Sharon Peaslee
Position 2 - Sherry Carr, Kate Martin
Position 3 - Harium Martin-Morris, Michelle Buetow*#
Position 6 - Steve Sundquist, Marty McLaren*#

*outside chance in this race that the incumbent will get bumped.  In Martin-Morris' case, it would be by John Dunn.  In Sundquist's case, it would be by Joy Anderson.

#good chance that the challenger will come out number one in the vote count which would be a definite signal of an incumbent in trouble (a la Kay Smith-Blum who defeated the incumbent, Mary Bass, in the last election)

22 comments:

Anonymous said...

I find it comical that the incumbents' have "seen the light"...and I don't laugh much.

grumpy

Greg said...

That would be a good primary outcome and should lead to a competitive race in November. As much as I'd like to see all four incumbents get booted, I think it is much more likely that we'll see just two of the four lose. Even so, I'll be pushing for all four incumbents to lose (and will be helping to fund the challengers to try to make that happen).

suep. said...

I don't think Maier is a particularly strong candidate. Wouldn't surprise me if Peaslee gives him a run for the money, though she's still an underdog since Maier has ed reform types and local politicos backing him (to their discredit). Peaslee's resume is strong and her successful community activism on behalf of Ingraham High School and reversing the erroneous firing of Principal Floe could win her admirers in the community.

It remains pretty shocking to me that Maier, a consumer rights lawyer, sat on the Sutor Report (Pottergate) for a year or more and did nothing, and approved the liability-ridden contract between SPS and TFA, Inc., and of course rubber-stamped all the bad policies of MGJ and co. that hurt the "consumers" of SPS -- our kids, our families.

In his candidate statement he refers to his "calm" leadership. If calm means inert, ineffectual and asleep at the wheel, voters may well disagree with this adjective as an attribute.

Kathy said...

Suep,

Don't under-estimate Maier's political support and generational roots in this area. He will be a tough candidate to beat.

Regarding the incumbent's legal background and contracts:

How about the altered NTN contract? Certainly, that wasn't read.

How many times did the district fail to attacth contracts to action items i.e. Wested?

What about the non-sustainable Strategic Initiatives and Teacher contracts?

I hope people start contributing to Sharon Peaslee's campaign (via web-page) She needs all the help she can get.

Maier's campaign slogan is -"The Leadership We Need". Laughable.

Jan said...

Yeah, suep -- my family tells me that I seem pretty "calm" while I am sleeping too!

none1111 said...

My predictions are the same as Melissa's, and almost the same in *# notes. Personally, my vote would be for Jack Whelan in district 2, but I think Kate has more name recognition, and will probably win. I think Sherry will gather the most votes in district 2, simply because the challengers will be splitting a lot of votes.

Sue, I would not sell Peter short, nor any of the incumbents, for that matter. They have support from influential people and large war chests to spend from. So we need to really get the word out to friends, family, neighbors, especially those who know nothing about the school board. They are the ones that could easily be swayed by the incumbents' advertising campaigns. (Maybe we should have a thread where we can comment about how many individuals we've pitched, or better yet, persuaded, to vote out the incumbents? Like a contest!)

Even with Peter's budget and 'corporate support', I'm most hopeful about the District 1 seat. Not only would I place Peter at the very bottom of the list as far as effectiveness (tied with Steve), but I see Sharon as a strong challenger, perhaps the best of them all. The more I've heard, both directly and indirectly, the more I respect her and her ability to be an effective director.

Only a few hours until we find out who moves on to the general!

Juana said...

You can follow the elections here
http://elections.komonews.com/

Anonymous said...

I HOPE there is a huge McGinn-ization of incumbents.

However, there are a lot of upper middle cla$$ toadies in this city worshiping at the alter of Bill.

Who_KNOWS

ConcernedSPSParent said...

The results from KOMOnews.com
suggest Sundquist has gone:).
kingcounty.gov says the results will
be out at 8:15 so I don't know where
KOMO gets its numbers from....

ConcernedSPSParent said...

That's odd, KOMO has reset all its
numbers, 0% all around...

Anonymous said...

Not supposed to post until ballot box is closed (8 pm)...

Anonymous said...

i always wonder what people think "war chests" buy in these down-ballot elections - votes?

in my opinion, it makes the candidates feel as if they're doing something and it also is some indication of the number of supporters - but really - without the commercials of the big campaigns, is a yard sign or a robo-call really going to influence a vote? or get someone to mail his ballot who wasn't going to, anyway? on any meaningful scale?

it's volunteers (not paid), candidates' appearances (not paid), candidates' networks and reputations (not paid) and candidates' doorbelling that gets out the vote in their favor.

seems like a lot of drama over nothing, and/or something some challengers raise a fuss about to cast aspersions on the incumbents - and in these races - a nothing-burger.

mom of 4 in sps

mirmac1 said...

What is telling is Pos. 2. Sherry Carr, supposedly the strongest candidate, is soundly beaten by her opponents 40-60 combined.

KC Elections page

uxolo said...

Mom of 4, the tens of thousands of dollars spent by the incumbents bought slick mailers filled with false advertising and perhaps even paid "volunteers" to post signs or do the bulk mailing.

If we want to get rid of the incumbents, we will need to donate time and money.

Anonymous said...

I wouldn't consider Sherry Carr as "soundly beaten." These are preliminary results with only 18% reporting (the lowest of all Seattle school board districts). She also had the most challengers. The general election may be much closer.

sometime reader

Herb said...

Much as I want the incumbents out, Kate Martin has some serious winning over to do. It's not in my child's best interest to vote for someone who has publicly endorsed the Thurston Howell stereotype of advanced learning. She may revise that opinion, but she still comes off as a loudmouthed loose cannon. I wish Whelan was an option.

Maureen said...

Herb, if you would base your vote on a candidate's view of APP, I hope you sit down with Sherry Carr and find out what her view is before the election (and make sure she doesn't know what your position is first.) I don't think she is any more (and perhaps less) supportive of APP than Kate Martin. I don't think either of them is against it per se, but neither of them is Kay Smith-Blum. Just because someone hasn't publicly denounced your position doesn't mean they will support it. Harium hardly ever says anything anymore. Does that mean he supports everyone's position?

Anonymous said...

uxolo - paying volunteers without reporting it to the pdc would be a campaign violation - a pretty serious charge to suggest without providing evidence.

mom of 4 in sps

Maureen said...

Mom of 4, I interpreted uxolo's use of 'volunteers' to be sarcastic. That is, candidates with less money need volunteers to do what the rich ones can pay for. I just glanced at one or two of the pdc docs Sherry Carr filed for her 2007 campaign and it's easy to see that she spent tens of thousands paying for people to do her mailings. (And what's with all of the 'consultants?' Is that normal?)

Here's a link to all of the 2007 candidates public disclosure documents.

none1111 said...

Herb, I share your concern, but second Maureen's point. Whelan would be my first choice as well, but when it comes to a choice between Sherry and Kate, there really is no choice.

Kate is actually listening to constituents and learning. Sherry is a Koolaid drinker, and has a 4 year record of almost completely ignoring her constituents. Certainly she's no friend to APP. I've talked with Kate and I'm somewhat optimistic that she's coming around to understand that APP is just another non-middle-of-the-road group that's getting the shaft. Not the only group, by any means, just one of many.

Unless something drastic changes in the next couple days, it will be Sherry vs. Kate in district 2, and Kate will have my full support and I will be spreading the word among our friends and neighbors. I may not agree with Kate on every issue, but I am very confident that she will not be a mindless rubber stamp.

Anonymous said...

So I looked at some of the PDC doc's in the link Maureen posted. Arbitrarily selecting Sherry Carr, and choosing three LMC (last minute cash contributions), there were two from Hunts Point and one from Medina, with two of them for $5000 and one for $3500 - Medina? Hunts Point?

Oompah

none1111 said...

two of them for $5000 and one for $3500 - Medina? Hunts Point?

I take it that in addition to no limits on campaign amounts for school board seats, that there aren't even any restrictions on where campaigns come from?

Why are contributions from other cities allowed? How could that be seen as a good thing? Out of state too? Out of country?