Election Predictions
It's always a hard call for School Board.
They are predicting about a 24% turnout for this primary. Shave off at least 8% for people who just don't vote for School Board (always happens - the vote count for City Council is always higher). So every vote counts.
I've been asked if I think people are angry enough to vote out the incumbents. I think the problem is not anger or frustration or confusion - it's exhaustion.
Can we believe the incumbents when they say they WILL provide more oversight (despite the fact that they had a lot of community input on many issues and ignored most of it in their votes only to have it come back and bite them. I note that Martin-Morris is running heavily on his no votes on the MLK, Jr. building sale and school closures.)
I think four years is enough. If I had seen anyone slowing changing course, maybe. (Sherry has but I haven't seen any pushback from her to staff, just some scolding.) That Peter had no answer to what he would do differently in second term and Steve and Harium said they wouldn't be changing anything, well, that leaves only Sherry who seems to have considered what has come before.
My predictions:
Position 1 - Peter Maier, Sharon Peaslee
Position 2 - Sherry Carr, Kate Martin
Position 3 - Harium Martin-Morris, Michelle Buetow*#
Position 6 - Steve Sundquist, Marty McLaren*#
*outside chance in this race that the incumbent will get bumped. In Martin-Morris' case, it would be by John Dunn. In Sundquist's case, it would be by Joy Anderson.
#good chance that the challenger will come out number one in the vote count which would be a definite signal of an incumbent in trouble (a la Kay Smith-Blum who defeated the incumbent, Mary Bass, in the last election)
They are predicting about a 24% turnout for this primary. Shave off at least 8% for people who just don't vote for School Board (always happens - the vote count for City Council is always higher). So every vote counts.
I've been asked if I think people are angry enough to vote out the incumbents. I think the problem is not anger or frustration or confusion - it's exhaustion.
Can we believe the incumbents when they say they WILL provide more oversight (despite the fact that they had a lot of community input on many issues and ignored most of it in their votes only to have it come back and bite them. I note that Martin-Morris is running heavily on his no votes on the MLK, Jr. building sale and school closures.)
I think four years is enough. If I had seen anyone slowing changing course, maybe. (Sherry has but I haven't seen any pushback from her to staff, just some scolding.) That Peter had no answer to what he would do differently in second term and Steve and Harium said they wouldn't be changing anything, well, that leaves only Sherry who seems to have considered what has come before.
My predictions:
Position 1 - Peter Maier, Sharon Peaslee
Position 2 - Sherry Carr, Kate Martin
Position 3 - Harium Martin-Morris, Michelle Buetow*#
Position 6 - Steve Sundquist, Marty McLaren*#
*outside chance in this race that the incumbent will get bumped. In Martin-Morris' case, it would be by John Dunn. In Sundquist's case, it would be by Joy Anderson.
#good chance that the challenger will come out number one in the vote count which would be a definite signal of an incumbent in trouble (a la Kay Smith-Blum who defeated the incumbent, Mary Bass, in the last election)
Comments
grumpy
It remains pretty shocking to me that Maier, a consumer rights lawyer, sat on the Sutor Report (Pottergate) for a year or more and did nothing, and approved the liability-ridden contract between SPS and TFA, Inc., and of course rubber-stamped all the bad policies of MGJ and co. that hurt the "consumers" of SPS -- our kids, our families.
In his candidate statement he refers to his "calm" leadership. If calm means inert, ineffectual and asleep at the wheel, voters may well disagree with this adjective as an attribute.
Don't under-estimate Maier's political support and generational roots in this area. He will be a tough candidate to beat.
Regarding the incumbent's legal background and contracts:
How about the altered NTN contract? Certainly, that wasn't read.
How many times did the district fail to attacth contracts to action items i.e. Wested?
What about the non-sustainable Strategic Initiatives and Teacher contracts?
I hope people start contributing to Sharon Peaslee's campaign (via web-page) She needs all the help she can get.
Maier's campaign slogan is -"The Leadership We Need". Laughable.
Sue, I would not sell Peter short, nor any of the incumbents, for that matter. They have support from influential people and large war chests to spend from. So we need to really get the word out to friends, family, neighbors, especially those who know nothing about the school board. They are the ones that could easily be swayed by the incumbents' advertising campaigns. (Maybe we should have a thread where we can comment about how many individuals we've pitched, or better yet, persuaded, to vote out the incumbents? Like a contest!)
Even with Peter's budget and 'corporate support', I'm most hopeful about the District 1 seat. Not only would I place Peter at the very bottom of the list as far as effectiveness (tied with Steve), but I see Sharon as a strong challenger, perhaps the best of them all. The more I've heard, both directly and indirectly, the more I respect her and her ability to be an effective director.
Only a few hours until we find out who moves on to the general!
http://elections.komonews.com/
However, there are a lot of upper middle cla$$ toadies in this city worshiping at the alter of Bill.
Who_KNOWS
suggest Sundquist has gone:).
kingcounty.gov says the results will
be out at 8:15 so I don't know where
KOMO gets its numbers from....
numbers, 0% all around...
in my opinion, it makes the candidates feel as if they're doing something and it also is some indication of the number of supporters - but really - without the commercials of the big campaigns, is a yard sign or a robo-call really going to influence a vote? or get someone to mail his ballot who wasn't going to, anyway? on any meaningful scale?
it's volunteers (not paid), candidates' appearances (not paid), candidates' networks and reputations (not paid) and candidates' doorbelling that gets out the vote in their favor.
seems like a lot of drama over nothing, and/or something some challengers raise a fuss about to cast aspersions on the incumbents - and in these races - a nothing-burger.
mom of 4 in sps
KC Elections page
If we want to get rid of the incumbents, we will need to donate time and money.
sometime reader
mom of 4 in sps
Here's a link to all of the 2007 candidates public disclosure documents.
Kate is actually listening to constituents and learning. Sherry is a Koolaid drinker, and has a 4 year record of almost completely ignoring her constituents. Certainly she's no friend to APP. I've talked with Kate and I'm somewhat optimistic that she's coming around to understand that APP is just another non-middle-of-the-road group that's getting the shaft. Not the only group, by any means, just one of many.
Unless something drastic changes in the next couple days, it will be Sherry vs. Kate in district 2, and Kate will have my full support and I will be spreading the word among our friends and neighbors. I may not agree with Kate on every issue, but I am very confident that she will not be a mindless rubber stamp.
Oompah
I take it that in addition to no limits on campaign amounts for school board seats, that there aren't even any restrictions on where campaigns come from?
Why are contributions from other cities allowed? How could that be seen as a good thing? Out of state too? Out of country?