Sundquist Concedes; Maier Still Squeaking By
I was told today that Steve Sundquist called and conceded to Marty McLaren.
The counts in the two close races, as of today, are as follows (with 40.54% of the vote tallied);
Maier - 50.66% (down from the initial count of 51.47%)
Peaslee - 49.00% (up from initial 48.17%)
McLaren - 52.81% (up from the initial 51.92%)
Sundquist - 46.74% (down from the initial count of 47.62%)
It seems that the McLaren race is a done deal.
According to KC elections, they are expecting 52% of the vote to come in. That would leave 12% left to come in/be counted. There are 1,947 votes separating Maier and Peaslee. I don't have my hopes up (because to my mind, if it didn't happen today, it isn't likely to happen). But it's still a pretty close race so it's always possible the unexpected could happen.
The counts in the two close races, as of today, are as follows (with 40.54% of the vote tallied);
Maier - 50.66% (down from the initial count of 51.47%)
Peaslee - 49.00% (up from initial 48.17%)
McLaren - 52.81% (up from the initial 51.92%)
Sundquist - 46.74% (down from the initial count of 47.62%)
It seems that the McLaren race is a done deal.
According to KC elections, they are expecting 52% of the vote to come in. That would leave 12% left to come in/be counted. There are 1,947 votes separating Maier and Peaslee. I don't have my hopes up (because to my mind, if it didn't happen today, it isn't likely to happen). But it's still a pretty close race so it's always possible the unexpected could happen.
Comments
Yep. And this is a fantastic showing by Sharon Peaslee, especially considering that incumbent Maier had much more money than she did, and political connections. Plus, the failure of the Election Dept to update the Voter's Guide after August's primary meant that all of Sharon's impressive endorsements weren't even listed in the November Voter's Guide. (King County Democrats
Seattle Education Association (SEA)
11th, 34th, 36th, 37th, 43rd Legislative Districts, The Stranger, Metropolitan Democrats)
There's no honest way that the Times or LEV can spin these results as decisive support for Maier. Half the people who bothered to vote don't want him back.
The grassroots challenger may take this yet, and if she doesn't, it will have been damn close.
Meanwhile Marty McLaren has pulled beyond Sundquist's reach in D-6. If LEV's Korsmo and the Times keep trying to distort the results by attributing McLaren's win solely to teacher's union support, that just shows how out of touch they are with the parents, voters and on the ground reality of our school district.
As for Carr v. Martin, it was disappointing and revealing that Carr decided she needed to go negative to defeat Martin, both in the letter she sent out last month and her last hit-piece mailer a few days before the election. This showed a side of Carr some of us had not seen before. Not so "civil" after all. It was also telling in another way: It indicated that Carr felt she could not win by campaigning on her own record. Her last mailer barely mentioned her own accomplishments, but instead focused almost entirely on Martin.
Today, 17,218 votes were counted. Sharon won 53.9%, Maier 45.9% and write-ins 0.2%.
If we assume that Seattle has 34% of 96,000 votes and that 78% will vote for District 1, then Sharon would need 53.8% to pull even. That is, she would need about the percentage she received in today's vote.
Any one of these assumptions could be wrong, but as they say, it ain't over 'till it's over.
DWE
safe to say i'm cancelling out charlie's vote (or he, mine) - though i did vote for one challenger (unfortunately, the one who lost most resoundingly).
http://your.kingcounty.gov/elections/abstats/default.aspx
"Last updated: 11/13/2011 8:00 PM
SEATTLE SCHOOL DISTRICT NO. 1"
"Total Issued" 374889
"Cumulative Received To Date" 173951
"% Received" 46.40
compared to the numbers on this page:
http://your.kingcounty.gov/elections/elections/201111/respage36.aspx
Ballots Cast/Registered Voters: * 151601 / 373975 40.54%
I honestly haven't a clue how many ballots are left to count --
.0586 * 373975 = 21914 more votes to count ???
oh well. looks like we live in interesting times.
HowsYourFortune
http://vote.wa.gov/results/current/
Turnout.html
This site has ballot return statistics. It seems to indicate that Seattle represents about 34.3% of the total votes in King County. That doesn't mean that the current number of outstanding votes in Seattle is 34.4%. It could be higher or lower.
On the results page for the School Board races, voters for District 1 total about 77.7% of ballots cast. So I rounded up to 78%.
Anyway, that is a lot of assumptions. Who knows?
DWE
received but not yet counted.
Jack -- I had the same thought you did. Mostly I just really, really want Sharon to win this position (GO GO GO Sharon!!!). But the thought of the ST -- who I think should not have called this race AT ALL, at 49-51, and certainly had no business (within the bounds of fair and honest reporting) describing it as having been won "handily" -- well, it would be really interesting watching them spin and squirm, trying to backtrack on that one.
Jan
"There's no honest way that the Times or LEV can spin these results as decisive support for Maier."
Well, there's your problem: you're expecting honesty from the Times. And I don't think they're dishonest per se, but rather, in denial about how unhappy people are with the way the district is being run.
WV says Sharon's building up a good "headda" steam!
If Lynne Varner, Stand on Kids and Korsmo at LEV thought about it for a second, they should be having an accident in their pants about now. Despite all their protestations about The Establishment knowing best, they were wayyyyyyyyy off target. Even Angry Kate fared well. Let the warning signs continue to flash for Downtown Biz and Ed Deform. Right under their huffy noses the tide is turning. Barely, barely a majority of the electorate bought off on their "vision" for SPS.
"Ready to Support All Four Challengers Again in Four Years"
-- GO Sharon !!
Jack, how could she know (or even estimate) the weekend's votes, which haven't been tallied?
Here's my take: If there are 12% estimated to be outstanding, that leaves almost exactly 16,000 left. A 54%/46% split of that vote would be about 8,640/7,360, meaning she would gain about 1,280 votes, coming up 667 votes shy.
HOWEVER, my calculations show a constant increase in the rate of her recovery, so I believe it will be closer than that.
At 55%/45% the #s would be 8,800/7,200, for a 1,600 differential, still 347 votes shy.
At 56%/44% the #s would be 8,960/7,040 for a 1,920 differential, just 27 votes shy!!
At 57%/43% the #s would be 9,120/6,880 for a 2,240 differential, which would give Sharon a lead of 293 votes.
This makes assumptions (12% / 16k votes left), and was all quick calculations, so someone may find an error, but as I said earlier this afternoon, I really think it's going to be very, very close.
If 40.54% of the registered voters have had their ballots tallied, and the expectation is that 52% of registered voters will cast a vote, then that 11.5% is a much larger chunk compared with 40.54 and 52!
40.54% of registered voters is: 151,601
52.00% of registered voters is: 194,467
That would imply that about 42,850 votes are left to be counted. If Seattle is 34% of that KC total, it would mean about 14,700 votes remaining. So a little tougher for Sharon, but still possible, given the rate of acceleration in her comeback the past few days.
Of course, as DWE says above, this is loaded with assumptions. Historically, outlining areas reported results later than metro areas, but with 100% mail-in ballots, I doubt that will be the same. Whatever the reasons, we're definitely seeing some trends the past few days, and I hope they hold!
A different starting point for an assumption is the State of Washington's estimate that there are 96,000 votes still to be tallied in King County. 34% of that is 32,640. Again, if you assume a 78% voting rate in District 1, then you end up with 25,459 votes still to be tallied.
Another statistic to ponder is that King County Elections indicates that it received 18,818 additional ballots on Monday for the School Board races.
Isn't this fun?!
DWE
One other tidbit. The King County count doesn't include ballots with signature issues. Don't signature issues run at a rate of about 3%?
It's a relatively small number, but in a close race, it matters.
DWE
As much as I'd like to think that all out uncounted votes are out there ready to push Sharon over the hump, I don't think that's the case—at least not in the case of my ballot which was mailed almost a week BEFORE election day. If mine hasn't been counted, then whose has?
Solvay Girl
Step Five: Signature verification
Before it can be counted, the signature on every returned ballot packet is visually compared with the voter’s signature on file, typically taken from their registration form. Trained specialists look for groupings and clusters of similarities, like letter and character height and spacing. If the signatures match, the returned ballot packet is approved to move forward to opening.
Approximately 3 percent of ballots returned in each election have a signature comparison issue. Common reasons include natural changes in a person’s signature over time, or a voter initialing instead of signing or simply forgetting to sign the oath on the signature envelope. These issues are all resolved differently and the voter is contacted by mail and telephone by King County Elections. Voters have until the evening before the election is certified to resolve their signature issue and have their ballot be counted.
Step Six: Opening
Once the identity of the registered voter is confirmed, the returned ballot packet is sent to opening where the packet is opened and the contents inspected.
Opening is a three step process:
1.The security envelope, containing the voted ballot, is removed from the signature envelope and set aside.
2.Once all signature envelopes in a batch have been emptied and set aside, the security envelope is opened and the ballot extracted. At this point, the connection between the voter’s name and their ballot is severed.
3.A 100 percent visual inspection of the ballot is performed. Ballots are pulled and sent to duplication if there are any stray marks that could affect tabulation, if the voter changed their mind and made a correction, or if the voter used the wrong color of pen or pencil. Ballots that are physically ready for tabulation proceed directly there.
Step Seven: Duplication
Ballots sent to duplication typically contain physical damage that would prevent them from being run through the tabulation equipment.
King County uses the Voter Intent Manual created by the Secretary of State’s Office to ensure consistency when duplicating ballots. Ballots where voter intent is not clear are forwarded to the Canvassing Board for a final decision. Once duplicated, the original ballot is securely stored as dictated by the retention schedule.
Step Eight: Scanning and tabulation
Ballots are scanned as they become available, the final step in the process. Scanned ballot images are tabulated and released at 8 p.m. on election night.
Scanning and tabulation continue and new results are reported daily until all eligible votes are counted.
and King County Elections indicates that it received 18,818 additional ballots on Monday for the School Board races.
Yeah, I read the first one (but hadn't seen the 2nd). What's frustrating is that some of these #s would appear to be in conflict with each other, so either some are out of date, or plain wrong.
One thing I know for a fact is that the trend has been in Sharon's favor, and the rate has been growing. That, more than anything, is what makes me feel like she's still got a chance, but the key factor is how many votes are left outstanding.
If there were indeed 18,818 votes left, Sharon would "only" need to gather about 55 1/2% to pass Maier, but that doesn't seem unreasonable given the trends. If there were only 14,700 votes left, she would need about 57%.
Peter, I hope you're lying awake every night wishing you'd acted differently over the past 4 years.
Whoever wins, it's a squeaker. Hopefully the winner will acknowledge that and reject the "mandate model" best personified by George W. Bush. There's no "mandate" here. There's a narrow swing either way, and whoever wins would be wise to act in a way that demonstrates recognition that their vision is disputed by roughly half their constituents.
-Ouch ;-(
Here are some definite numbers that trouble me far more. They are real and happened on the incumbents' watch, and are the reasons I voted against them:
Seattle School District – by the numbers (on the incumbents' watch)
8 = number of schools closed to allegedly save $3 million/year (voted in Jan. 2009).
5 = number schools to be reopened at a cost of $48 million (announced in Oct. 2009)
$1.8 million = amount lost by Silas Potter and the Regional Small Business Development Program
2009 = year Peter Maier received the Sutor Report which indicated problems with Potter's program.
0 = number of board colleagues Maier shared this troubling info with.
2 = number of years before Maier spoke up about the Sutor Report (in 2011).
$10 million + = amount spent by the Seattle School district on the MAP test
90 = number of days lost of library time to MAP testing in many schools
110 = number of teaching coaches on the SPS payroll in 2009 (and who didn’t actually teach in classrooms)
172 = number of teachers laid off by the district in 2009
77 = number of teachers laid off by the district in 2011
$2.4 million paid by First AME for MLK Elementary School
$9.7 million offered by the Bush School for MLK
$7.3 million = amount left on the table by SPS
3 = incumbents running for reelection who voted for the sale of MLK to First AME (Sundquist, Maier, Carr)
$248,000 = amount of salary awarded to Maria Goodloe-Johnson when she was hired by the school district in 2007
1 year = amount of time before the school board voted to award Goodloe-Johnson a 10 percent raise (in 2008)
$264,000 = Goodloe-Johnson’s new salary in 2008
$150,00 = Seattle’s then-Mayor Greg Nickel’s salary
$163,000 = Washington State Governor Christine Gregoire’s salary
$10,000 = annual retirement fund awarded to Goodloe-Johnson by district, approved by the board
$800/month = car allowance awarded to Goodloe-Johnson by district, approved by the board
$5,280 = bonus awarded to MGJ by school board in 2009, during a recession, after closing schools and RIFing teachers (introduced by Board President Steve Sundquist)
4 out of 17 = number of performance goals Goodloe-Johnson achieved to earn the bonus
(continued)
12 = number of Seattle schools that voted No Confidence in Superintendent Goodloe-Johnson
Near-unanimous = percentage of Seattle Public School teachers who voted No Confidence in Goodloe-Johnson
20 = number of violations found by WA State auditor when it audited Seattle Public School District in 2010
2 = number of times school board voted to renew MGJ’s contract (including after the damning state audit was released)
$264,000 + $9,800 = amount of severance SPS paid out to Goodloe-Johnson when she was fired in March 2011.
$87,500 + $4,900 = amount of severance SPS paid out to fired CFO Don Kennedy
$400,000 = amount of money given to election campaigns of Carr, Martin-Morris, Sundquist and Maier in 2007, breaking all past records, and much of it from a business interests.
3 = the number of 4 incumbents who voted for Discovering math
17 percent = the incorrect and artificially low number of college ready high school grads cited by the school district. This false number was used to help sell Goodloe-Johnson’s failed and damaging “Strategic Plan” for Seattle’s schools.
63 percent = the actual number, finally corrected by the district a year or more later.
1 = number of school board members who questioned the 17 percent (DeBell).
0 = number who did anything about it.
5 weeks = amount of time Teach for America, Inc. recruits are trained before put in classrooms to teach.
0 = amount of in-class student teaching experience of Teach for America “teachers.”
2 = number of years TFA recruits are committed to teach.
6 = number of school board members who voted to approve allowing TFA recruits to teach in Seattle schools despite the abundance of qualified teachers in Seattle (Sundquist, Maier, DeBell, Carr, Martin-Morris, Smith-Blum)
$4,000 = annual extra fee the district must pay for TFA, Inc. to hire TFA recruits in Seattle’s public schools (in addition to paying a full teacher's salary)
4 = number of years the four incumbents have been on the board
47,000+ current enrollment in SPS
? = amount of planning by SPS for growing enrollment.
Wrong Suep!
That number was actually $498,000 raised and spent by the GangOfFour (now GangOfThree) in 2007.
Gotcha! WSDWG
Whether the donors themselves later pulled strings or not, it sure appeared that way given how the 07 slate constantly, often indefensibly, voted as a bloc.
I sure hope things are different this time around. WSDWG
-reader
My vote has been opened and my signature verified. But nope, not counted yet. That will be another one for Peaslee (reluctantly).
-reader
Rosie: Is it your place to put the kibosh on what others wish to say? When did it become your duty to tell others essentially to shut up and get over it?
Your crowd incessantly complains about others' rudeness, while constantly presuming to tell others what they can say and how. Is that not rude also?
While I sincerely welcome your thoughts and perspectives, I don't like all the hall-monitoring and kiboshing. WSDWG
P.S. Now, please don't lecture me on how many people I'm turning off. That's my cross to bear. Thanks.
Btw, if you're so sure the election is over, why do you care what Sharon says anymore anyway?
Yowza, WSDWG!
"DWE reports she actually got 53.9%. Both Jack and DWE are reputable posters, though, so I'm assuming both are correct in their statements."
It appears RosieReader has not done any calculations. It also appears RosieReader is ready to bash the challenger based on assumptions. Interesting. You know what they say about assumptions.
If election results are so close, a challenge by the loser must be in order.
-JC.
on Maier v. Peaslee.
Public School Parent
WSDWG. Not sure who "my crowd" is in your estimation, though I'd be interested to learn. I hope they're nice people. I'm not sure why you think I was putting the kibosh on suep. Suep posted in response to me,k with a post that seemed intended to prove me wrong in some way. So I felt it well within the spirit of the discussion to say i didn't find her argument persuasive.
Things are just too squeaky close to call yet from what I can see - when the dust settles we can all argue till we're blue in the face over how it "should" have turned out etc.
In the meantime, I agree with the poster who said hopefully whichever side wins, they will acknowledge there were no landslide mandates -its time to work together and find middle ground for all.
First, Ms. Barnett misreported and didn't correct Thursday's ballot count percentages. Secondly on Monday she said that the only election that was remotely up in the air was the Sundquist-McLaren one.
That Ms. Barnett would actually acknowledge that one school board election count isn't over/certified, instead of assembling writing samples for a local "Comical Ali/Iraqi Information Minister" job (is she an Eve Harrington to Lynne Varner's Margo Channing?) is mind-boggling.
If election results are so close, a challenge by the loser must be in order.
An automatic recount of ballots occurs if the vote difference is smaller than 2000, as in right now, or if the spread percentage is smaller than half a percent. I wonder if the runner-up will get a holiday card from Dino Rossi this year.
WV: "ended". Enh, let's wait to see what 4:30 pm brings. Maybe a death knell, maybe not.
Okay, I'll bite. What's middle ground?
I don't think anybody wants a dysfunctional board. In fact, I'd venture the vote here would be 100% against. This board got along incredibly well, but overreached and pushed too hard to impose their "vision" on the community, instead of responding to a variety of diverse needs. Does middle ground mean less testing & standardization? More accountability & asserting itself into staff matters? Or how about this: Requiring actual, real follow-up to questions asked of staff who answer: "I'll get back to you on that" - which has come to mean (realistically) - "That's all I'm saying on the subject. Adios!"
Maybe instead of discussing middle ground, I should ask a simpler question: "What changes do people see with Marty apparently coming onto the Board?"
For me, I want a board more actively engaged, and engaging of the community, in curriculum & instruction decisions. WSDWG
Peter Maier 67294 49.80%
Sharon Peaslee 67385 49.87%
Write-in 452 0.33%
/It's beginning to look a lot like Christmas, la, la-la, la, la...
SG
It will not work well for the District if Marty (and Sharon, if her numbers hold) come in with a man-the-barriers, take-no-prisoners approach to getting along with the other board members or the staff on contentious issues. On the other hand -- they challenged well financed, well connected incumbents -- and at least one of them won. Whatever "signal" or "mandate" that confers, it surely is NOT a "mandate" to step to the table and mindlessly vote for and approve every steaming plate that the staff serves up, regardless of whether they have answered any questions, done any analysis, followed any laws or policies, etc. But in any case, I haven't sensed that Marty (or Sharon, if she wins) is likely to let winning by close margins rush to her head and go off half cocked.
The "mandate" problem -- if anyone had one -- was MGJ's problem. From her words and actions, I feel like she had a clear sense that she somehow had a "mandate" to come in, tear everything apart, and redo it all in a "Broad" mold. I believe that organizations like LEV encouraged her (and the board) to believe in that mandate, despite the fact that the votes did not support it -- because it came from the big foundations instead. It is Broad and Gates (and TfA, and Arne Duncan, etc. etc.) who are attempting to confer a "mandate" on Districts who are willing to follow the ed reform model.
What I DO think is that Marty (and Sharon) if she wins have a mandate to listen to the voters (and not to the checkbooks of big ed) and govern in the best interests of Seattle's children and taxpayers. If she/they get on the board and discover that other board members believe that they represent someone/something else -- then yes, I hope there ARE fireworks.
Scrawny Kayaker