The Demographic Task Force got data on longer term enrollment projections through 2015 by geographic areas. The District expects significant growth in K-5 enrollment in just about every middle school service area. These numbers are for SPS students who live in these areas, not necessarily enrolled at a school in the same area.
Washington + 869
Aki Kurose +606
The other three are positive as well, but to a lesser extent.
If you look at each of these it is easy to prescribe a solution:
Washington - move north-end APP out of Lowell, attract students to Madrona
Denny - build a K-5 on the location of old Denny
Mercer - re-open Van Asselt
Eckstein - McDonald and Sand Point need to take up the growth
Aki Kurose - Rainier View needs to take up most of the growth
Whitman - Viewlands will take up most, bring students to Broadview-Thomson
The move of elementary north-end APP to a north-end location is a challenge. This may be, however, the only population that would accept John Marshall as a site. The building is bad enough, but it is also right next to the freeway and it has no playground. Honestly, though, these folks would take a tent pitched in an open field so long as the instruction is appropriate. I regret the only alternative is Broadview-Thomson. Suggestions?
Nearly all of the 6-8 enrollment growth over the next 5 years is expected to come north of downtown.
Again, the District needs to get to work re-opening Wilson-Pacific as a middle school and they need to get started on it right now.
The high school picture is mixed. There are a number of attendance areas where the District expects a decline in high school enrollment.
Chief Sealth -149
Hale -35 (why are we expanding this building?)
Rainier Beach -31
Ingraham -29 (why are we expanding this building?)
Other areas are expected to see real growth in enrollment
West Seattle +182
Hmmm. Does this suggest that we re-open Lincoln to anyone else but me?