Long Term Enrollment Projections
The Demographic Task Force got data on longer term enrollment projections through 2015 by geographic areas. The District expects significant growth in K-5 enrollment in just about every middle school service area. These numbers are for SPS students who live in these areas, not necessarily enrolled at a school in the same area.
Washington + 869
Denny +726
Mercer +725
Eckstein +673
Aki Kurose +606
Whitman +515
The other three are positive as well, but to a lesser extent.
If you look at each of these it is easy to prescribe a solution:
Washington - move north-end APP out of Lowell, attract students to Madrona
Denny - build a K-5 on the location of old Denny
Mercer - re-open Van Asselt
Eckstein - McDonald and Sand Point need to take up the growth
Aki Kurose - Rainier View needs to take up most of the growth
Whitman - Viewlands will take up most, bring students to Broadview-Thomson
The move of elementary north-end APP to a north-end location is a challenge. This may be, however, the only population that would accept John Marshall as a site. The building is bad enough, but it is also right next to the freeway and it has no playground. Honestly, though, these folks would take a tent pitched in an open field so long as the instruction is appropriate. I regret the only alternative is Broadview-Thomson. Suggestions?
Nearly all of the 6-8 enrollment growth over the next 5 years is expected to come north of downtown.
Whitman +315
Eckstein +279
McClure +188
Hamilton +169
Again, the District needs to get to work re-opening Wilson-Pacific as a middle school and they need to get started on it right now.
The high school picture is mixed. There are a number of attendance areas where the District expects a decline in high school enrollment.
Chief Sealth -149
Hale -35 (why are we expanding this building?)
Rainier Beach -31
Ingraham -29 (why are we expanding this building?)
Other areas are expected to see real growth in enrollment
Roosevelt +266
Ballard +229
West Seattle +182
Garfield +71
Franklin +18
Hmmm. Does this suggest that we re-open Lincoln to anyone else but me?
Washington + 869
Denny +726
Mercer +725
Eckstein +673
Aki Kurose +606
Whitman +515
The other three are positive as well, but to a lesser extent.
If you look at each of these it is easy to prescribe a solution:
Washington - move north-end APP out of Lowell, attract students to Madrona
Denny - build a K-5 on the location of old Denny
Mercer - re-open Van Asselt
Eckstein - McDonald and Sand Point need to take up the growth
Aki Kurose - Rainier View needs to take up most of the growth
Whitman - Viewlands will take up most, bring students to Broadview-Thomson
The move of elementary north-end APP to a north-end location is a challenge. This may be, however, the only population that would accept John Marshall as a site. The building is bad enough, but it is also right next to the freeway and it has no playground. Honestly, though, these folks would take a tent pitched in an open field so long as the instruction is appropriate. I regret the only alternative is Broadview-Thomson. Suggestions?
Nearly all of the 6-8 enrollment growth over the next 5 years is expected to come north of downtown.
Whitman +315
Eckstein +279
McClure +188
Hamilton +169
Again, the District needs to get to work re-opening Wilson-Pacific as a middle school and they need to get started on it right now.
The high school picture is mixed. There are a number of attendance areas where the District expects a decline in high school enrollment.
Chief Sealth -149
Hale -35 (why are we expanding this building?)
Rainier Beach -31
Ingraham -29 (why are we expanding this building?)
Other areas are expected to see real growth in enrollment
Roosevelt +266
Ballard +229
West Seattle +182
Garfield +71
Franklin +18
Hmmm. Does this suggest that we re-open Lincoln to anyone else but me?
Comments
This solution would leave every north end school full to capacity, and over enrolled. No wiggle room at all. But probably not over crowded enough to open Lincoln. Maybe a small alternative high school, like NOVA, in the north end would work? The north end has no local alt high schools - maybe that would be a solution?
McDonald is in the Hamilton service area.
Sandpoint capacity is 300 and they are going to have over 200 next year. Sandpoint is going to be FULL within two year.
- north seattle mom
To shift that many kids to Hale, you will need to move the boundary to be practically on top of the school. What do you think this is? Ballard?? (Meant to be more painful than funny)
But seriously, the solution for Roosevelt is to move the West boundary back to Ballard and to get Queen Anne a High School of their own.
Queen Anne has to go somewhere and there are enough students enrolled in elementary school, north of the ship canal to completely and totally fill all four high schools and Lincoln. In six years, they are going to have the same problem at high school as they are having in middle school.
- north seattle mom
Had you ever actually visited the old Ingraham portables? That would answer your question.
DWE
The huge immediate issue in front of the APP community right now is that Lowell will be incredibly overcrowded this fall. More than you can believe. Honestly, I don't know how the numbers we're hearing (easily over 700) can be safely accommodated. There's a $50k project planned for the summer to carve a new classroom out of the current art room, but with 5 add'l classrooms needed on top of a very crowded building already, I can't imagine what will happen.
KSB made one suggestion that got a round of applause: an APP 1-8 ! :-)
She is concerned about middle school, however, having heard that MS kids don't want to be with the same group of kids in middle school as elementary (although I know at least a few MS APP kids that would take it in a heartbeat over the existing system, but I digress). What she mentioned as a possible solution sounded wonderful:
A mushroom 1-8 APP at John Marshall, with 6-8 filling in from the area. One could imagine a Spectrum program in the building that could pull (not push!) kids from Eckstein. And she mentioned using Lincoln at the temporary building for the north APP kids for 1 year while getting Marshall up to code.
NOTE: this was not an official proposal by her, just something to discuss and consider, but it was a solution that seemed to be a palatable in her mind to the APP over-crowding problem at Lowell (and soon to be at HIMS as well).
Now, on the downside, she also brought up something that many of us feel would be the final stake in the heart of APP: more splits. As in further splitting the Lowell cohort into a central and north APP (as if ThM is south!), and she mentioned even splitting again for West Seattle.
Unfortunately, she's totally missing the boat on this one. The first split has been really, really hard on the families, staff, students. The program has changed a lot, and not for the better. Another split, especially in the near future would be devastating. The only reason this might not spectacularly fail is that Spectrum is systematically being eliminated from the district, and that's creating more demand for APP by kids that could be well-served in a regional Spectrum program.
This would essentially be the end of APP as it morphs into what Spectrum should be. I hope everyone understands the ramifications of another split and takes it very seriously.
Conjecture of one but yabetcha a north end APP split is going to be fastracked. I'd put big $$ on it. Next year will be close to untenable at Lowell. Neighborhood and medically fragile kids aren't going to move. That leaves APP.
It all goes back to closing TT Minor. And dismantling Spectrum. Put them together and boom, North End APP here we come. Broadview-Thompson anyone? Marshall?
-skeptical-
Now, looking at John Marshall on Google maps, I see that there are two tennis courts and a basketball court and a big parking lot surrounding/behind the school. Are those school property or do they belong to another adjacent structure? If they could be repurposed into playground, that's a whole 'nother story.
-saw the plans
I've heard that the remodels at Hale and Ingraham are NOT expansions. They will not increase capacity, just replace buildings in poor condition.
Have you heard otherwise?
I think that enrollment at both of these schools will increase soon after 2015, based upon what's happening at north end elementary schools (opening Jane Addams, Viewlands, most elementaries at or over capacity, etc...).
I actually wish they HAD factored an increase in capacity into the Hale and Ingraham remodels.
North End Mom
Yes, tennis courts and part of the parking lot north or south side)could be repurposed to make a small playground. Not a sports field, but a grassy area to run around. And park is a short walk away.
Building: Three stories, no elevator, so access issues. Cafeteria was long ago repurposed into auditorium (no cooking equipment, but these days, a moot point I suppose.) Could be used as cafeteria/auditorium with addition of food warmers, etc...
TWO small gyms. Daycare facility on site (unless it was torn out)
Condition: Some earthquake retrofitting over the years. Structure is sound, some external condition issues. One of two boilers not in good shape. Overall, probably a three out of five (if you like the old school buildings!) Capacity, they say, is right around 800, but some rooms have been repurposed and at a guess I'd say it would fit 650 or so comfortably.
Science lab was code a few years ago, but needs updating and is small. Library is beautiful but also a bit small.
A noisy building with freeway right there and older windows allowing noise in.
Marshall Alternative wanted to open a community school in the facility, and used an apparent APP interest in it to make wild claims about equity in a desperate attempt to save itself from closure, but those days are past and an APP K-8 makes good sense: Central north for access; clears out space in other buildings; a fine, usable building; and the idea of an APP K-8 is just good sense.
Of course, that is going to be embarrassing for a School Board that approved closing a bunch of schools just two years ago. But they are going to have to do it anyway.
The same with the highschools in the north end. Those projections are only for the next three years when the normal completely full three middle schools roll up.
The more interesting High School projections would be six years out when the current middle schools cohorts are fully in the highschools.
There were 579 elementary APP students this year. If half of them are at T. Marshall, that would be 290 kids. The building has a functional capacity of about 425. A K-5 general education program with just one class per grade would need about 130 seats. There is no room for a second class per grade.
I don't think the District can draw an attendance area that small.
And yes, of course the talk about school in tents was hyperbole. That said, as bad as you may think Lowell is now, it is WAY better than it used to be. During the last round of closures the District wanted to close it because it was uninhabitable. Kinda harsh thing to say when they are assigning your kid there.
Capacity down 33%. Enrollment up 50% +++
Great projecting so far!