2011 Enrollment Projections

At the meeting of the Demographic Task Force I got the enrollment projections - made in January and due to be revised in the coming weeks - for the 2011 enrollment at every school. I believe the data is in the Annual Enrollment Report.

It includes a couple of interesting bits.

Rainier Beach High School - incoming 9th grade.
2010 enrollment: 89; 2011 projection: 171
Here is an ambitious expectation that the incoming class will practically double (89+82). I asked about this projection and was told that it was primarily a consequence of constrained choice. Seats will not be available elsewhere, so students in that attendance area will be forced into Rainier Beach. Nice, huh? This reflects a continuation of the District's practice to push students into schools rather than try to pull students into schools.

Other high schools where they expect a big changes in the size of the incoming 9th grade class include:

Garfield, where the diversion of 50 APP students to Ingraham IB - HALF OF THE CLASS - and the smaller attendance area combine to reduce 9th grade enrollment by 128 from 499 to 371.

Hale, where the incoming 9th grade class is expected to shrink by 59 from 315 to 256 due to... a smaller cohort I guess.

West Seattle, where the incoming 9th grade class is expected to grow by 45 from 222 to 267 due to... a larger cohort I guess. There may also be more out-of-area students allowed in as well.

Ballard, where the incoming 9th grade class is expected to grow by 43 from 357 to 400 due to... a larger cohort I guess. There may also be more out-of-area students allowed in as well.

Despite the influx of 50 APP students in the freshman class, Ingraham is expected to have only 19 more freshmen than last year.

In the middle schools, we're seeing really strong enrollment growth at Mercer, Aki Kurose, Whitman and Eckstein. Eckstein has a projected enrollment of 1,275. Whitman, at 998, will be one bright idea away from 1,000. Enrollments are generally stable in most other schools. Let's face it. The District needs to re-open Wilson-Pacific as a middle school. Why delay announcing it? Wilson-Pacific, made the north-end APP site to relieve Hamilton of 200 students, could pull another 200 students from Whitman to relieve the overcrowding there and 300 students from Eckstein. That would give the new school a total enrollment of 700. The school can meet at Lincoln until the building is ready.

Although the number of students at Madrona is expected to drop by only a few, on a percentage basis the impact is stiff. The District thinks that the total enrollment of the Madrona 6-8 program next year will be 102 (27 in 6th, 31 in 7th, and 44 in 8th). It appears to be dwindling. A contributor to the drop has got to be the guaranteed access to Washington offered to every Madrona student. The district needs to seriously think about what they are going to do about Madrona.

The K-5 program at Madrona is also expected to shrink a bit as children drift away year over year. Total projected enrollment for the building 218 K-5 plus 102 6-8 = 320. This is a building as big as Seward, where TOPS has 500.

Elsewhere in K-5 enrollment, the District expects noticable growth at Arbor Heights, Roxhill, West Seattle Elementary, Hawthorne, Gatzert, Lowell, McGilvra (getting another kindergarten class), and, of course, at all of the new schools - McDonald, Queen Anne, Sand Point, Viewlands, and Rainier View.


Nick said…
Please note that Wilson/Pacific is in a terrible state – in some places the roof has literally fallen!
Anonymous said…
Makes me wonder if TOPS should move to Madrona, where it would be closer to the center of the Washington service area, and then use Seward to accommodate more crowded areas (ie - NE schools). Not sure where Madrona neighborhood kids would go, though.

- southeaster
Anonymous said…
Not to mention the potential asbestos at Wil/Pac...

-- reader --
Anonymous said…
Just about all the midcentury buildings have asbestos - it's in the ceiling tiles and floor tiles. It's also in the older buildings that had dropped ceilings installed.
dj said…
I don't want to advocate moving a program like TOPS when the families are happy with it and people really want in. But I am starting to think that that might actually be a reasonable solution to the capacity issue in this area, and might, eg, ward off having to reopen TT Minor (not that it should have been closed).
Ah, moving TOPS.

We thought of that during closure and consolidation and practically got slapped down for even thinking of it. Good luck with that.

Charlie, you name schools that seem to be prime targets for BEX IV especially Arbor Heights (mold issues), McGilvra (they have room to build better whereas Montlake doesn't)and Lowell (which badly needs more room).

Wilson-Pacific, to me, needs a complete teardown if they want to reuse it.
G said…
Southeaster -

Many Madrona kids already go to TOPS!

The current 8th grade APP cohort is 177, an extra large class. Moving 50-60 kids to Ingraham brings the APP cohort down to about average for a Garfield class. And the new number for Garfield is 1740, up from a projected 1611 in March, and with no cap, this will of course grow over the summer. But they are budgeted to plan for 1611, because, well, just because that was a projected number way back when. And the money for more kids will not come until the fall, even though they know more students, who need classes and teachers, are coming. Makes your head spin.
Erin said…
We don't live far from Wilson Pacific and I agree with Melissa, it would need a complete tear down. What is tragic is that it is still being used as a school for the Indian Heritage School. The building is in dismal condition, a complete eyesore in the neighborhood, there are frequently transients asleep in the corridors, but it's an operating school.

That being said, we really need another middle school in the central north end. I hope the district gets its act together and fixes it up.
Josh Hayes said…
I too live close to the W-P building(s), and I agree that they're in godawful shape - but I'd really like to see the murals preserved when the place gets torn down. They're amazing.
wsnorth said…
If there is an increase at West Seattle, it is largely because Chief Sealth is full/constrained. Chief Sealth has a large wait list this year, and many West Seattle students used to go to Garfield. So same as RBHS, nowhere else to go.
Anonymous said…
I agree that another middle school may be needed for the North end but I am getting pretty tired of just moving the APP kids from one school to another to either solve capacity problems or to try and improve a school's reputation and draw families there. We have friends whose daughter went to Washington for 6th grade, Lincoln for 7th, and Hamilton for 8th - because the APP program kept getting moved. I understand the need for Lincoln due to the Hamilton remodel - but still - it was 3 schools in 3 years. I would love to see a long term vision for APP that is based (or at least takes into consideration) the needs of the APP kids - rather than continually moving the program around to solve other problems. Is it too much to expect APP to stay at Hamilton for more than 2 years?? Jane
Anonymous said…
50 APP to Ingraham seems like a pretty good cohort to see moving. And, I also know of some Ingraham choices made by private school 8th graders who would be APP-eligible.

I think that bodes well for Ingraham, and I hope they can follow through on what folks are potentially finding attractive.

I think it also raises possibilities for the location of the north APP program, if it means that there's a contingent of North APP students who are willing to go ad far north as Ingraham. Maybe Elementary North APP doesn't have to be centrally located to be successful. As we know, east west commutes are hard in Seattle, but a north commute from NE doesn't have to be that hard.

Maureen said…
zb, you say: And, I also know of some Ingraham choices made by private school 8th graders who would be APP-eligible.

Do you mean to say that those kids will be in the accelerated IB program, or just at Ingraham?

It seems to me that if the cohort is 50, they should admit another ten kids (perhaps ones who tested into APP at some point but didn't move and have taken Geometry) into the program. That way they will have two full classes.

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