My Prediction (or Two) on What the Governor Will Do

I have previously pointed out the obvious about Governor Jay Inslee and the situation he is in regarding the charter school bill on his desk.
1) He ran on the Washington State Democratic platform which is against charter schools. 

2) He's running for reelection and he needs to consider money AND boots on the ground to support him if he wants another term.  While I don't think the Republican candidate can win, he should run hard (especially given the craziness around what the GOP is doing on the presidential candidate level.)

3) Throughout his tenure, he has said he's against charter schools.  He has never said anything publicly about that stance changing.

4) During the legislature session, he did go visit a charter and said he was glad to meet students who loved reading.  Some interpreted that as a soften of his stance. I'm not sure one visit to a charter school would change anyone's mind. 
5) He went to law school and was a legislator.  He knows how to read a bill and I'm going to assume he has read the constitution that he swore to uphold when he took office.  He can plainly see that Article Three, Section 22 on the duties of the state superintendent are not included in this bill.  (There are those who disagree with me on this point and I just say, "Let's go see what a judge says.")

He has three choices: approve, veto or wait 20 days and then it just passes into law. 
The clock started ticking on March 10th for the 20 days that he has to make a decision (that does not include Sundays so the last day would be Saturday, April 2nd.) 
Prediction One 
He'll let it pass into law.  
He'll say, "I personally don't support charters but the legislature went thru the process and I want to "save" these schools."  

Then he can say he didn't approve it AND he didn't veto it.
That would be a rather wan outcome.  
Prediction Two 
He lets it pass into law BUT then asks for an expedited hearing from some court on the law's constitutionality.  
I would consider that fair because it gives something to both sides.  The charter schools would have their law but that law is going to be gone thru by a judge to make sure that we aren't all sitting here next year at the same time with even MORE families affected by an overturn charter law.
Of course, my favored outcome is a veto which would make me admire the Governor for remaining constant to a stand he ran on and an acknowledgement that this is a deeply flawed and rushed bill that will not withstand a legal challenge.


Po3 said…
My bets are on Prediction One.
Outsider said…
You gotta say, if a Democrat governor in a safely Democrat state can't stay true to his own prior position and veto a charter bill, the writing is on the wall.
Outsider, Inslee is a smart guy and yet, kind of weak on being a Governor. I wish he could read your comment.
Anonymous said…
Great analysis above " Kind of weak on being a Governor"

Sure wish Gov. Jay would clearly explain himself on the charter bill and McCleary.

-- Dan Dempsey
Outsider said…
One can imagine a few reasons why Inslee wouldn't veto the bill with the heel of his boot:

1) He put his finger in the wind, and concluded that public opinion is turning away from the traditional public school model and:
1a) thinks allowing the charter bill will improve his chances to be re-elected.
1b) thinks allowing the charter bill will improve his chances of being selected as Hillary's VP candidate. ha ha just messing with you there ...

2) He has some plan to horse-trade charter schools for something else (though it's not clear what or how the payoff will be collected).

3) He honestly concluded that charter schools are a good idea.

4) He was offered a very cushy job at the Gates Foundation or somewhere.

5) The charter crew has got something juicy on him, such as his history of bing-searching midget porn. That might sound a bit tinfoil-hat, but don't laugh. A lot of charter advocates are connected to the tech giants, and they have access to everyone's history of doing anything online. Call it blackmail 2.0. So much cleaner and more efficient than the low-tech version.

If it's not one of those, then what could the reason be?
NO 1240 said…
The position of governor is not guaranteed to a Democrat- not by a long shot.

The Republican candidate for governor has begun talking about closing schools.
Teacher Greg said…
As someone who donated to his campaign for his previous run (more than I have ever given to a political candidate) and helped campaign for him it's a quandary for me. If he signs (or allows this bill to become law through his inaction) that would be really disappointing.

In his campaign platform in 2012 he stated, "One thing we cannot do is hold education funding hostage to ideological or partisan politics - threatening deeper cuts as a means to leverage other political or policy objectives. Our kids, and the taxpayers of this state, deserve better"(1). This bill is clearly a prime example of right-wing ideologues, and their middle of the road co-conspirators, using students' education as leverage to further their political agenda of privatizing education and eliminating public sector unions. I agree with 2012 Inslee -- as a taxpayer I do deserve better than the inevitable financial drain (not to mention damage done to the students) these unaccountable corporations will wreak.

Anonymous said…
I think the horse-trading point above is prescient. And if it came as part of a deal to increase teacher salaries (a la the House Dem budget) then it's not clear WEA would even be that upset about it -- especially because the legislation is going right back to the courts.


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